World Weather Research Programme Strategic plan Estelle de Coning, Paolo Ruti, Julia Keller World Weather Research Division

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1 World Weather Research Programme Strategic plan Estelle de Coning, Paolo Ruti, Julia Keller World Weather Research Division

2 The World Weather Research Programme MISSION: The WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) promotes international and interdisciplinary research for more accurate and reliable forecasts from minutes to seasons, expanding the frontiers of weather science to enhance society s resilience to high-impact weather and the value of weather information for users.

3 The World Weather Research Programme Aims: Seamless Prediction - by increasing convergence between weather, climate and environmental approaches; Strengthened partnerships between academics and operational users as well as interdisciplinary collaborations; Enhanced role of Early Career Scientists.

4 WWRP Implementation Plan Based on outcome of the World Weather Open Science Conference and on the engagement of all the WWRP community WWRP webpage:

5 What are the societal challenges of our times? URBANIZATION EXTREMES (HIGH IMPACT WEATHER) PREDICTING THE WATER CYCLE Nowcasting and mesoscale research EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

6 Urbanization Key research issues: Development of model capabilities that consider unique urban aspects (such as architecture etc.) and make use of high-density (crowd sourced) data which are available in cities (phones, cars etc).; An interdisciplinary integrated urban services approach that considers societal challenges, service requirements, crowd behaviour, messaging etc. IMPORTANT for small scale events in cities

7 Extremes (or High Impact Weather events) Key research issues are: Seamless approach to understand and model extreme events, which also makes use of new and non-traditional observations; Refined understanding of the socio-economic implications and decision processes taking into account vulnerabilities and risks; Integrated approaches to extend predictions from physical impacts to effects on social and economic systems, considering stakeholders needs. IMPORTANT for nowcasting on mesoscale resolution

8 Predicting the water cycle Key research issues are: Seamless approach to understand and model the water cycle and its processes, including the all precipitation processes; Improved consideration of socio-economic needs and benefits, and decision processes related to the water cycle, enabling refined communication procedures and services; Development and optimal application of modelling and data assimilation techniques IMPORTANT for small scale convection

9 Key issues: Emerging Technologies Exploitation of new methodologies and sources for observations, to complement existing capabilities, assess data quality; Exploitation of modelling and data assimilation capabilities and methodologies, optimum usage of computing power and communications bandwidth; Adaptation to evolving communication technologies, while continuing service to traditional means of obtaining information. IMPORTANT for higher resolution to have more data

10 HOW DO WE ADDRESS THESE CHALLENGES?

11 Challenges Core Projects Working Groups

12 Paolo and Julia Paolo Paolo and Estelle Challenges Core Projects Working Groups

13 Co-chairs Brian Golding and David Johnston High Impact Weather: Structure diagram Communication Predictability & Processes Multiscale Forecasts Vulnerability & Risk Evaluation Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting Databases & Archiving Website:

14 HIWeather projects PROJECTS: NAWDEX: Aims to increase physical understanding of the effects of diabatic processes on disturbances to the jet stream near North America, as well as their influence on downstream propagation across the North Atlantic, and their consequences for high-impact weather in Europe. Waves to Weather (W2W): Aims to improve insight through the development of interactive visualization methods, which will enable rapid exploration of forecast ensembles to identify the sources and evolution of uncertainty. HIGHWAY : Aims to improve nowcasting and early warning systems in the Lake Victoria region proposal accepted for funding. Other linked projects: HYMEX (Mediterranean), RELAMPAGO (South America), ICE-POP 2018 (Korea winter Olympics), SURF (Urban precipitation and pollution in Beijing)

15 The Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Bridging the gap between weather and climate Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson (IRI) 5-year project, started in Nov Project office: KMA/NIMR hosts the project office Website:

16 Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal Chair: Thomas Jung, AWI Project Office: Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany Project Office: Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany

17 Aviation Tropical Cyclones Sand and Dust Pre operational RDP/FDP Challenges Core Projects Working Groups

18 EdC NL EdC EdC NL NL Challenges Core Projects Working Groups EdC

19 Two important thrusts/drives in WMO A. Science-to-Services (R2O), making research/science useful for decision makers B. Bringing climate and weather (and other) research closer together through cross-cutting activities with the aim of seamless prediction

20 A. Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) The main purpose of the Global Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (GDPFS) shall be to prepare and make available to Members (in the most cost-effective way) meteorological analyses and forecast products.

21 A. Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) and Comission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) will be co-chairing the GDPFS management group Will require stronger links with research, and eventually the capacity to develop and test novel operational products. By making research products available to WMO users, it will be possible to obtain feedback from the whole WMO community

22 A. Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Feedback will be essential to assess their accuracy, identify potential improvements, and in the end help tailor them more closely to their needs. In other words the new GDPFS will need to facilitate a smooth transfer of research results into operations (R2O).

23 WMO TC

24 B. Urban Research Meteorology - GURME Requires mesoscale modelling and high resolution observations in urban areas NMR WG (Cross cutting to WWRP and GAW)

25 WMO Programmes

26 For the future: TO CONSIDER

27 For consideration in NMR plans for the future For high impact weather, water, urban, new technologies: How has your WG contributed to addressing these Societal Challenges and the Action Areas under these since last year or two? How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under these Societal Challenges? How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives for cross-cutting activities? (Including WGNE, WCRP, GURME etc.) How do you see your WG contributing to the WWRP Imp Plan in the next 2 years? What will be the key cross-cutting activities in the next 2 years? What can the NMR WG do to fit within the GDPFS (R2O) development?

28 Thank you Merci Estelle de Coning: