REPORT OF THE IPO (submitted by WMO Secretariat)
|
|
- Gabriel Phelps
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Tenth Session WMO, Geneva(3-5 October 2012) CAS/ICSC-10/DOC2.4.1 (26. IX. 2012) Original: English REPORT OF THE IPO (submitted by WMO Secretariat) This document provides a progress report on the development of THORPEX and highlights in particular: 1. Introduction THORPEX, an element of the WMO World Weather Research Programme, is a major contribution to the WMO Natural Disaster Reduction and Mitigation Programme and a key goal of WWRP/THORPEX is to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts. The THORPEX International Science Plan was published in November 2003 and this was followed by a THORPEX International Research Implementation Plan in December 2004 (both plans are available on The international THORPEX activities are supported and coordinated by the THORPEX International Programme Office (IPO) which in tern is supported through, voluntary contributions of the governments of the WMO Members participating in THORPEX, including donations to the THORPEX Trust Fund established by WMO. The manager of THORPEX IPO, and the THORPEX Working Groups and Regional Committees, report to a THORPEX International Core Steering Committee (ICSC). The ninth meeting of the THORPEX (ICSC-9) took place in Geneva (21-22 September 2011) and the report from ICSC-9 is available on 2. Activities of THORPEX Executive Committee Since ICSC-9, the EC met at UKMO (8 March 2012). During this meeting, the EC discussed the THORPEX legacy and possible follow-on programme and prepared the document with three options (A, B and C). Option C is to establish a new 10-year programme (Environmental Prediction Initiative) with the WCRP with a focus on improving the predictability of high impact weather from hours to a season (seamless prediction) and within the framework of a changing climate. The EC preferred option was Option C. 3. Outcome of WWRP/JSC5 (11-13 April 2012) highlights The 5 th session of the WWRP/JSC (JSC5) was held in Geneva, April The following is the extraction from the JSC5 on THORPEX related topics. 3.1 Progress Review of THORPEX The title of the document, originally called as Mid-term review, should be THORPEX Progress Report (TPR), as suggested by the JSC. The JSC members were requested to provide review statements to the Chair of the JSC. The Chair of the JSC was asked to present the main findings of the review to the ICSC-10.
2 CAS/ICSC10/DOC2.4.1, p DAOS Working Group The IASI instrument on Metop-A now makes a major contribution to the short-range forecast skill. ConcordIASI was very successful and many additional observations were obtained over Antarctica from dropsondes. The JSC endorsed the view that the DAOS WG is the leading data assimilation group within the WMO and must be maintained beyond the end of the THORPEX programme. The DAOS WG is encouraged to extend its area of interest to include regional scales whilst maintaining a focus on the global scale. 3.3 PDP Working Group The PDP WG had strong representation at a number of recent meetings e.g. the European Regional Committee meeting in Karlsruhe, the sub-seasonal workshop at ECMWF and the summer school held at Banff Canada (on Advanced mathematical methods to study atmospheric dynamics and predictability ). The main PDP projects were then outlined. These included DIAMET, PANDOWAE (2 nd phase ), T-NAWDEX, T-PARC and HyMEX. The PDP WG is invited to consider representation from S. America. The PDP WG should ensure that consideration is given to its position post- THORPEX at the next PDP WG meeting in Reading in June The PDP WG is invited to consider how to link with work in the US concerning atmospheric rivers by possibly inviting a representative to a future WG meeting. 3.4 GIFS-TIGGE Working Group Since 2006 TIGGE has been collecting EPS data from the centres. These data are made available with a 48h delay and are used for research on probabilistic forecasting methods and predictability studies. The archive is expanding at the rate of about 10TB /month. TIGGE data is proving invaluable for a wide range of research activities e.g. research on dynamical processes and predictability studies. More than 50 articles have appeared in the literature. The active users now number about 100. The research emphasis of the WG is now shifting to consider the calibration of ensemble forecasts, combination of ensembles and specific probabilistic forecast products. Towards GIFS, the focus is on high impact weather events, with TCs and heavy rainfall being considered initially. A second phase will look at gridded data and aspects such as ensemble spread and TC strike probability. A prototype homepage is available to show the risk of heavy precipitation out to about 2 weeks ahead. Other products include strong winds, heavy precipitation and extreme temperatures. These will eventually be made available to the SWFDPs but with a 3 day delay. This delay will need to be reduced. It is intended that the SWFDPs will provide feedback on the new products. The SWFPDs should also be able to bring selected products into operational (real time) use based on their existing data agreements with the NWP centres. 3.5 THORPEX Legacy Discussion In discussion it was suggested that there is an Option D i.e. much as Option C but without the integration into a single large project. It is not clear what this integration is going to achieve. Thus, a set of large projects could be run each with their own Trust Fund and support.
3 CAS/ICSC10/DOC2.4.1, p. 3 The structure of the WWRP was then discussed and it was suggested that it should comprise WGs and projects. The former would be long term fundamental topics such as data assimilation, ensemble prediction (including predictability), verification, etc., funded from the WWRP core budget. These WGs would complement the individual projects (which have a finite lifetime and carry their own funding) in a matrix structure. Some things should not be lost THORPEX facilitated interaction between the academic community and operational centres this should not be lost. It was noted that many exciting science questions remain and it important that the WWRP is now organised in the most efficient way possible to address them as well as attract outside funding. The OSC would be a good venue to launch the new look WWRP and post-thorpex structures. 4. Developing country support, workshops and reports 4.1 Africa The THORPEX Africa Regional Committee meeting was held in Geneva, 8-10 May The goal of this meeting was to explore how best to put an operational twist on the THORPEX activities and at the same time get better cooperation between research and operational communities at the national level to move the case studies forward. An additional aim was to explore how best the larger THORPEX community could contribute to the activities of THORPEX Africa. At the meeting the case studies of high impact weather events across the African continent have been identified. The case study project has 3 phases (event description, forecast assessment and modeling studies) and consists of 4 selected events (each with a defined lead person): - North African case study: flooding in northern Marocco (29-30 November 2010) associated with very strong advection of moist air from the tropics. - South African case study: flooding in South Africa (11-12 November 2008) - West African case study: heavy rainfall in Burkina Faso (late August/early September 2009) during a very active African easterly wave period. - East African case study: flood over East and Central Africa in October 1997 The focus is now on completing the case studies with the intention of publishing these by the time the THORPEX programme ends. The approach is to have the THORPEX WGs offer good support to the RC and the Case study leads. The wider THORPEX PDP, TIGGE and DAOS working groups are therefore welcomed to get involved to help ensure that these case studies can be completed by 2014 and leave a THORPEX legacy in place. 4.2 International Workshop on high-impact events The international Workshop on Dynamics and Predictability of high-impact weather and climate events was held in Kunming, 6-9 August There was a panel discussion for THORPEX Legacy at the workshop. The panellists were, Alan Thorpe, Richard Swinbank, Istvan Szunyogh, Pat Harr and Hisashi Nakamura. Alan Thorpe said that one of the aims of the THORPEX is to bring both operational centres and universities communities together to work with weather science and forecasting and also to bring in societal impacts to make weather research more interdisciplinary. Richard Swinbank showed the TIGGE accomplishments, includes big achievement to open up NWP data to research community in consistent GRIB2 format, invaluable resource for predictability and dynamic research. Istvan Szunyogh mentioned how the Predictability and Dynamic Processes Working Group (PDP WG) contributed to the THORPEX programme. It helped to develop the TIGGE database, to organize several symposiums and summer schools and to provide interpretation of the targeting observation. Pat Harr, as a member of PDP WG, talked about the T-PARC, which was a very successful field programme for tropical cyclone with 10-nation participation.
4 CAS/ICSC10/DOC2.4.1, p. 4 Hisashi Nakamura talked about collaboration between weather and climate during the discussion session. He said that CLIVAR was really concerned about the future projection of extreme weather/climate events in much finer/smaller scale, such as ocean fronts, which were not in traditional large-scale climate focus. 5. THORPEX Working Groups 5.1 DAOS Working Group The DAOS Working Group meeting was held in Madison, USA, September The future role of the DAOS-WG was discussed in the post-thorpex era. All the proposed options in the THORPEX legacy document suggest that the DAOS-WG becomes an expert group within the WWRP structure, assuming this can be funded within the WMO budget. WGNE have acknowledged the role of the DAOS-WG as the leading expert group for atmospheric data assimilation research in WMO. There is a desire for the group to include convective-scale DA, and discussions are underway with the MWFR group to ensure any activities are complementary. The main focus should remain on improving assimilation to support NWP forecasting from 1 to 20 days. One of the DAOS-WG proposed activities is to organize the next WMO Data Assimilation Workshop which is due in The WG members were asked to investigate whether they could host such an event in late The next DAOS-WG meeting is planned to be in late 2013 or early 2014 with possible venues in Europe proposed. See more detailed report, Doc2.4.3, from the WG in this ICSC-10 meeting. 5.2 PDP Working Group The PDP Working Group meeting (WG) was held in Reading, June The WG invited two scientists, David Lavers and Ryan Spackman, as experts for Atmospheric Rivers. Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of high values of integrated water vapour, which appear to originate from the tropics (but moisture budget along the flow is complicated, as there is rainout, ocean evaporation and moisture flux convergence). Landfalling atmospheric rivers lead to high impact precipitiation events (e.g., US west coast storm on 4-5 Jan 2008). In the NW Pacific, about 40% of annual precipitation falls in association with atmospheric river episodes. There are also links between atmospheric rivers and UK winter flood events (e.g., November 2009 Cumbrian flood in NW England). Atmospheric rivers are considered as parts of warm conveyor belts in extratropical cyclones warm sectors, i.e., the core region of horizontal moisture transport. The top 10 floods in Northern England have similar water vapor transport patterns as the Cumbrian flood, which are fairly stationary over several days. For the prediction of these events, the representation of local topography is thought to be crucial. The THORPEX WGs have their own issues and merits. The PDP WG consists of a variety of independent academic research groups. The THORPEX data sets, in particular TIGGE, YOTC and T-PARC, are clearly a main achievement of THORPEX, and will be of great benefit for PDP research during the coming years. It will become very important that the Polar and Subseasonal Projects try to strongly include the dynamics and predictability communities. These projects and their science and implementation plans can be essential for getting funding for research projects at academic institutions (e.g., PANDOWAE, DIAMET). A very positive aspect of PDP activities has been educational work (e.g. the Banff summer school). The education aspect could also become key component of post THORPEX activities. It will be useful to suggest specific future activities on short and medium-range forecasting of high-impact weather events. The PDP WG agreed that it should develop a view on PDP research within the WWRP in the post THORPEX era as part of the paper being developed for ICSC 10 on post THORPEX arrangements.
5 CAS/ICSC10/DOC2.4.1, p. 5 Heini Wernli presented the idea of organizing a PDP winter school in 2013/2014 on Monte Verita in southern Switzerland, mainly on dynamical processes associated with high-impact weather events. The school would aim at providing a strong linkage between theoretical concepts, recent field experiments, and model diagnostics. It is agreed that Heini Wernli should move forward with preparing an application for submission in January WMO will probably be able to support travel costs for about 3-4 participants from developing countries. The relationship of the proposed PDP Summer School to that envisaged by the WWRP in the summer of 2013 was discussed. 5.3 GIFS-TIGGE Working Group The GIFS-TIGGE Working Group meeting was held in Boulder, June Richard Swinbank outlined the aims of the meeting which included consolidating and completing the work so far and looking at future arrangements post THORPEX i.e. after 2014.There were two key aspects to the work the first was the TIGGE databases which were a real success. More needs to be done to expand the research use although this was now substantial. The second area was product development for demonstration and evaluation. The aim was to increase collaboration with the SWFDPs. It was hoped to add new products to the SWFDP website later in the year. Operational implementation will be, however, a matter for CBS. The multi-model ensemble approach shows increased skill over the single ensemble for surface temperature, precipitation and TC tracks. So, the main focus of GIFS product development is planned to be on the multi-model approach, but could also include innovative products based on single model ensembles. The next steps in the GIFS development process will include the generation of multi-model versions of ensemble TC track products and closer to real time versions of severe weather products. Priorities for further development should reflect the responses to the questionnaire sent to the SWFDP centres. There is also need to engage the verification WG in evaluation of products. It was recognised that ECMWF EPS data could be used by the Met Office to generate near real time multi-model products for the SWFDPs. The NCEP data could form a third component. If possible, JMA data should also be included, to allow a real-time product based on the same four ensembles as the prototype product developed by MRI. The WG recognised that the Met Office could and should take the lead and implement real time support to the SWFDPs within existing data policies. The vision in the US Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is to organise the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years. Targets involve reducing track and intensity errors by 20% in 5 years and 50% in 10 years, extending useful predictions to 7 days and increasing the probability of detecting rapid deepening at day 1 to 90% and at day 5 to 50%. The WG discussed the THORPEX legacy and post possible THORPEX arrangements. A paper has been commissioned by the ICSC from the THORPEX EC for discussion at ICSC 10 in Oct THORPEX WGs and ICSC members are invited to submit a one-page document setting out their view, which will be included as an annex to the ICSC paper. It is expected that the WWRP will be organised into a series a WGs addressing long term fundamental issues and a series of specific projects supported by Trust Funds. It is envisaged that the DAOS WG will become a WG of the WWRP. The consensus of the WG was that the PDP and TIGGE groups might merge to form another Predictability and Ensembles WG in the WWRP. The WG strongly supported the continuation of TIGGE beyond the end of THORPEX. The TIGGE data set is an invaluable resource for: scientific research on predictability and dynamics; EPS validation and verification; development of probabilistic forecast products; benefiting from enhancements and wider use resulting from
6 CAS/ICSC10/DOC2.4.1, p. 6 the GEOWOW project. It was recognised that the continuation of TIGGE will require support from at least one of the archive centres. The WG felt that the ongoing management of TIGGE could be accomplished with the minimum of effort.
THORPEX OVERVIEW. Acknowledgements: USTEC Members
THORPEX OVERVIEW Acknowledgements: USTEC Members USTSSC Workshop, 19-20 Sept, 2012 1 OUTLINE Historical perspective Objectives International organization and activities Ongoing work, next steps US organization
More informationReport of GIFS-TIGGE WG (Submitted by Richard Swinbank and Masayuki Kyouda)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Eleventh Session WMO, Geneva (15-17 July 2013) CAS/ICSC-11/DOC2.3.5 (24 VI.2013)
More informationGIFS-TIGGE working group Report to ICSC. Richard Swinbank Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to other members of GIFS-TIGGE WG and the THORPEX IPO
GIFS-TIGGE working group Report to ICSC Richard Swinbank Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to other members of GIFS-TIGGE WG and the THORPEX IPO ICSC-11, Geneva, July 2013 GIFS-TIGGE report Working group membership
More informationIntroduction to TIGGE and GIFS. Richard Swinbank, with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO
Introduction to TIGGE and GIFS Richard Swinbank, with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO GIFS-TIGGE/NCAR/NOAA Workshop on EPS developments, June 2012 TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
More informationcontinued discussions within the 8 interest groups on current research topics
PDP activities during last 1-2 years continued discussions within the 8 interest groups on current research topics submission of BAMS overview paper on current PDP research themes (based upon IG reports)
More informationPDP WORKING GROUP ACTIVITIES (Submitted by Heini Wernli and Istvan Szunyogh)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Ninth Session WMO, Geneva (21 22 September 2011) CAS/ICSC-9/DOC2.4.2 (28.VIII.2011)
More informationReport of the working group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting
Report of the working group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting Co-chairs: Craig Bishop and John Methven Objectives The overarching objectives of the PDEF working group are: To provide
More informationWorld Weather Research Programme Strategic plan Estelle de Coning, Paolo Ruti, Julia Keller World Weather Research Division
World Weather Research Programme Strategic plan 2016-2023 Estelle de Coning, Paolo Ruti, Julia Keller World Weather Research Division The World Weather Research Programme MISSION: The WMO World Weather
More informationINTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN Executive Summary
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAMME INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN Executive Summary By Dr Melvyn A. Shapiro and Prof. Alan J. Thorpe Prepared on behalf of the CAS International
More informationReport from the PDP working group
Report from the PDP working group Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Shuhei Maeda, John Methven, Mark Rodwell, Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand, Heini Wernli ICSC11 Meeting July 2013 PDP mission Main task of the
More informationCatalysing Innovation in Weather Science - the role of observations and NWP in the World Weather Research Programme
Catalysing Innovation in Weather Science - the role of observations and NWP in the World Weather Research Programme Estelle de Coning, Paolo Ruti, Julia Keller World Weather Research Division The World
More informationEUROPEAN REGIONAL ACTIVITIES (Submitted by European Institutions through the IPO)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Eighth Session DWD, Offenbach (2 4 November 2009) CAS/ICSC-8/DOC5.3 (27 X.2008) Item:
More informationThe benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast
More informationWorld Weather Research Programme
World Weather Research Programme Sarah Jones, Chair WWRP SSC Paolo M Ruti, Chief WWRD,WMO Christof Stache/AFP/Ge3y Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA
More informationSub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. Using ECMWF forecasts, 4-6 June 2014 1 Outline Recent progress and plans
More informationLAM EPS and TIGGE LAM. Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC
DRIHMS_meeting Genova 14 October 2010 Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC Ensemble Prediction Ensemble prediction is based on the knowledge of the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere and on the awareness of
More informationIntroduction to THORPEX and TIGGE
Introduction to THORPEX and TIGGE David Richardson Met Office, Exeter Thanks to: Mel Shapiro, Alan Thorpe, co-chairs THORPEX ISSC David Rogers and THORPEX Implementation Plan Expert Group Elena Manaenkova,
More informationSub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes
Sub-seasonal predictions at ECMWF and links with international programmes Frederic Vitart and Franco Molteni ECMWF, Reading, U.K. 1 Outline 30 years ago: the start of ensemble, extended-range predictions
More informationSubseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project
Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Bridging the gap between weather and climate Co-Chairs: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) Andrew Robertson (IRI) Objectives To improve forecast skill and understanding
More informationAsian THORPEX Implementation Plan
Asian THORPEX Implementation Plan 1. Introduction This document is to describe the Implementation Plan of the Asian THORPEX, that the Asian THORPEX Regional Committee (ARC) approves. THORPEX was established
More informationRecent advances in Tropical Cyclone prediction using ensembles
Recent advances in Tropical Cyclone prediction using ensembles Richard Swinbank, with thanks to Many colleagues in Met Office, GIFS-TIGGE WG & others HC-35 meeting, Curacao, April 2013 Recent advances
More informationMedium-range Ensemble Forecasts at the Met Office
Medium-range Ensemble Forecasts at the Met Office Christine Johnson, Richard Swinbank, Helen Titley and Simon Thompson ECMWF workshop on Ensembles Crown copyright 2007 Page 1 Medium-range ensembles at
More informationSOUTHEAST ASIAN SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (SEA S2S) PROJECT
SOUTHEAST ASIAN SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (SEA S2S) PROJECT CONCEPT NOTE FOR SEA S2S FIRST WORKSHOP Feb 27 3 Mar 2017 CENTRE FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH SINGAPORE (CCRS) METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SINGAPORE (MSS) Background
More informationA review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA
4th THORPEX workshop 31 Oct. 2012, Kunming, China A review on recent progresses of THORPEX activities in JMA Masaomi NAKAMURA Typhoon Research Department Meteorological Research Institute / JMA Contents
More informationThe importance of satellite data and products for RA1 in the WWRP strategy. Estelle de Coning World Weather Research Division
The importance of satellite data and products for RA1 in the WWRP strategy Estelle de Coning World Weather Research Division Kofi Annan former UN Secretary-General (21 July 2016) "The poor need alerts
More informationJMA Contribution to SWFDDP in RAV. (Submitted by Yuki Honda and Masayuki Kyouda, Japan Meteorological Agency) Summary and purpose of document
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPAG on DPFS DPFS/RAV-SWFDDP-RSMT Doc. 7.1(1) (28.X.2010) SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (SWFDDP)
More informationHow to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective
How to shape future met-services: a seamless perspective Paolo Ruti, Chief World Weather Research Division Sarah Jones, Chair Scientific Steering Committee Improving the skill big resources ECMWF s forecast
More informationWorld Weather Research Programme (WWRP)
World Weather Research Programme () Gilbert Brunet /JSC Chair GIFS WCRP TIGGE JSC Committee WG Meeting, 34 th Met Session, Office, Brasilia, Exeter, 13 th June, 2013 Brazil, 27-31 May 2013 Long-term objectives
More informationNorth Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (Track) Ensemble Forecast Research Project (NW Pacific TC Project)
TIGGE Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Data for Regional Applications North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (Track) Ensemble Forecast Research Project (NW Pacific TC Project) a WWRP Research Development Project
More informationWMO Welcome Statement
WMO Welcome Statement at the Opening of the WMO Symposium on Nowcasting and Very-short-range Forecast (Hong Kong, China, 25-29 July 2016) On behalf of Professor Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the
More informationSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6)
Sixth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 19-22 April 2015 Consensus Statement Summary Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season
More informationMio Matsueda (University of Oxford) Tetsuo Nakazawa (WMO)
GIFS-TIGGE WG 10@UKMO (12-14 June, 2013) Early warning products for extreme weather events using operational medium-range ensemble forecasts Mio Matsueda (University of Oxford) Tetsuo Nakazawa (WMO) with
More informationWorld Weather Research Program: a ten years vision. PM Ruti, F Vitart, S Majumdar IWTC VIII Dec Jeju
World Weather Research Program: a ten years vision PM Ruti, F Vitart, S Majumdar IWTC VIII Dec 014 - Jeju An overarching question Disaster risk reduction Climate services How should we move from weather
More informationINTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX
Commission for Atmospheric Sciences Seventh session 18-20 November 2008 Geneva, Switzerland INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX FINAL REPORT THORPEX International Programme Office Atmospheric
More informationTHORPEX A World Weather Research Programme
THORPEX A World Weather Research Programme IMPLEMENTATION PLAN David Rogers, Chair WMO Expert Group for THORPEX International Research Implementation Plan THORPEX Management Structure agreed at ICSC-4
More informationThe WWRP Polar Prediction Project
The WWRP Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research June 2012 1 Outline Background and mission statement Research goals Year of Polar Prediction Strategies
More informationPRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response
PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
More informationWMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG
WMO Priorities and Perspectives on IPWG Stephan Bojinski WMO Space Programme IPWG-6, São José dos Campos, Brazil, 15-19 October 2012 1. Introduction to WMO Extended Abstract The World Meteorological Organization
More informationWorld Weather Research Programme. WMO-No. 978
Accelerating improvements in the accuracy of one-day to two-week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment WMO-No. 978 World Weather Research Programme Revised
More informationWMO/WWRP/THORPEX World Weather Open Science Conference Sunday 17 Thursday 21 August 2014, Montréal, Canada Scientific Program
WMO/WWRP/THORPEX World Weather Open Science Conference Sunday 17 Thursday 21 August 2014, Montréal, Canada Scientific Program The overarching theme of the OSC is Seamless Prediction of the Earth System:
More informationDeveloping Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales
Developing Operational MME Forecasts for Subseasonal Timescales Dan C. Collins NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Acknowledgements: Stephen Baxter and Augustin Vintzileos (CPC and UMD) 1 Outline I. Operational
More informationTropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions
Tropical cyclone track forecasts using JMA model with ECMWF and JMA initial conditions The Fourth THORPEX Asian Science Workshop Kunming, China 2 Nov 2012 (Fri) Munehiko Yamaguchi 1, Tetsuo Nakazawa 1,2
More informationJCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)
WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) Coastal Flooding & Vulnerable Populations Coastal
More informationRCOF Review [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report
RCOF Review 2017 [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report Specific Climate features of concerned region This region typically covers the area below
More informationCOORDINATION WITH OTHER ACTIVITIES OF THE WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME. (Submitted by the WMO Secretariat) Summary and Purpose of Document
ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE FORTY-NINTH SESSION 21-24 FEBRUARY 2017 YOKOHAMA, JAPAN FOR PARTICIPANTS ONLY WRD/TC.49/16 13 February 2017 ENGLISH ONLY COORDINATION WITH OTHER ACTIVITIES OF THE WMO TROPICAL
More informationPress Release: First WMO Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction
Press Release: First WMO Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction a) b) c) d) Photographs during the first WMO Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction: a) Group Photograph, b) Dr M. Rajeevan, Director,
More informationExperience in service delivery through working with regional centres
Experience in service delivery through working with regional centres Mnikeli Ndabambi World Meteorological Organization (WMO) International Symposium on PWS Geneva, Switzerland, 03 05 December 2007 Miracles
More informationOperational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP
Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction
More information1. Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/Project/etc)
Polar Prediction Project 1. Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/Project/etc) The Polar Prediction Project has been initiated following the WMO's Executive Council meeting (EC-64)
More informationExperimental Short-term Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers
Experimental Short-term Forecasting of Atmospheric Rivers Mike DeFlorio 1, Duane Waliser 2,3, F. Martin Ralph 1, Luca Delle Monache 1, Bin Guan 2,3, Alexander Goodman 2, Aneesh Subramanian 1, Zhenhai Zhang
More informationVerification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter
Verification of the Seasonal Forecast for the 2005/06 Winter Shingo Yamada Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 2006/11/02 7 th Joint Meeting on EAWM Contents 1. Verification of the Seasonal
More informationSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12)
Twelfth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) Pune, India, 19-20 April 2018 Consensus Statement Summary Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June
More informationSTATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SATELLITE WIND MONITORING BY THE NWP SAF
STATUS AND DEVELOPMENT OF SATELLITE WIND MONITORING BY THE NWP SAF Mary Forsythe (1), Antonio Garcia-Mendez (2), Howard Berger (1,3), Bryan Conway (4), Sarah Watkin (1) (1) Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter,
More informationImproving global coastal inundation forecasting WMO Panel, UR2014, London, 2 July 2014
Improving global coastal inundation forecasting WMO Panel, UR2014, London, 2 July 2014 Cyclone Sidr, November 2007 Hurricane Katrina, 2005 Prof. Kevin Horsburgh Head of marine physics, UK National Oceanography
More informationGCOS Cooperation Mechanism
GCOS Cooperation Mechanism GCOS Cooperation Mechanism (GCM) The GCM was established to identify and make the most effective use of resources available for improving climate observing systems in developing
More information1 What Is Climate? TAKE A LOOK 2. Explain Why do areas near the equator tend to have high temperatures?
CHAPTER 17 1 What Is Climate? SECTION Climate BEFORE YOU READ After you read this section, you should be able to answer these questions: What is climate? What factors affect climate? How do climates differ
More informationOPAG on Integrated Observing Systems. Workshop to Improve the Usefulness of Operational Radiosonde Data. (Submitted by the Secretariat)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS CBS MANAGEMENT GROUP Fourth session Langen, Germany, 13-16 October 2003 Distr.: RESTRICTED CBS/MG-IV/Doc. 3.1(5) (24.IX.2003) ITEM: 3.1 ENGLISH
More informationHow ECMWF has addressed requests from the data users
How ECMWF has addressed requests from the data users David Richardson Head of Evaluation Section, Forecast Department, ECMWF David.richardson@ecmwf.int ECMWF June 14, 2017 Overview Review the efforts made
More informationPage 1 of 5 Home research global climate enso effects Research Effects of El Niño on world weather Precipitation Temperature Tropical Cyclones El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The
More informationWorld Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Strengthening Regional Cooperation to Support Forecasting with Multi-Hazard Approach in RA IV SWFDP concepts and lessons
More information2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts
More informationClimate Services in Practice UK Perspective
Climate Services in Practice UK Perspective Chris Hewitt ICCS, Columbia University, October 2011 Overview Perspectives on: Why have a climate service? What is a climate service? UK activities Examples
More informationInternational Desks: African Training Desk and Projects
The Climate Prediction Center International Desks: African Training Desk and Projects Wassila M. Thiaw Team Leader Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 1 African Desk
More informationExecutive Summary and Recommendations
ANNEX I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE 12RMSD TWELFTH REGIONAL MEETING OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE DIRECTORS 30 -JUNE to 6 -JULY 2007 Rarotonga, Cook Islands Executive Summary and Recommendations
More informationThe WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS), current status and planned regional activities
The WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS), current status and planned regional activities Dr. Lars Peter Riishojgaard WMO Secretariat, Geneva Outline Introduction to WIGOS WMO The Rolling Review
More informationFebruary 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia
February 2007 in Jakarta, Indonesia MEXT Special Coordination Funds for for Promoting Science and Technology Asia S&T Strategic Cooperation Program International Research for Prevention and Mitigation
More informationT-PARC and TCS08 (Submitted by Pat Harr, Russell Elsberry and Tetsuo Nakazawa)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Eighth Session DWD, Offenbach (2 4 November 2009) CAS/ICSC-8/DOC4.1 (3 X.2009) Item:
More informationThe GDPFS. SSC-WWRP Geneva, 26 Oct 2016
The GDPFS SSC-WWRP Geneva, 26 Oct 2016 The GDPFS Is organized as a three level system to carry out functions at global, regional and national levels World Meteorological Centre (WMC) Regional Specialized
More informationTHEME: Seasonal forecast: Climate Service for better management of risks and opportunities
CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l OMM African Institution
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2012
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I.P. (IPMA) 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are used as the main source of data for operational
More informationCurrent status of operations of Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) Alexander Montoro Technical Expert on Climate and Weather Services
Current status of operations of Pacific Islands Climate Outlook Forum (PICOF) Alexander Montoro Technical Expert on Climate and Weather Services Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme
More informationOur ref.: WDS-DPFS/Revised Manual on GDPFS-2017 GENEVA, 16 January 2017
Our ref.: WDS-DPFS/Revised Manual on GDPFS-2017 GENEVA, 16 January 2017 Annexes: 2 (available in English only) Subject: Revised Manual on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) (WMO-No.
More informationThe WWRP Polar Prediction Project
The Polar Prediction Project Trond Iversen Member of the Polar Prediction Project Steering Group Norwegian Meteorological Institute / ECMWF 11th meeting, THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE, WG; June 2013 1 Background
More informationWeather Forecasting in Flood Forecasting Activities
Weather Forecasting in Flood Forecasting Activities Eugene Poolman South African Weather Service Representing CBS Pretoria South Africa FCAST PRES 20130919 001 Main Activities of CBS Development, implementation
More informationDiabatic processes and the structure of extratropical cyclones
Geophysical and Nonlinear Fluid Dynamics Seminar AOPP, Oxford, 23 October 2012 Diabatic processes and the structure of extratropical cyclones Oscar Martínez-Alvarado R. Plant, J. Chagnon, S. Gray, J. Methven
More informationChallenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions. David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff
Challenges to Improving the Skill of Weekly to Seasonal Climate Predictions David DeWitt with contributions from CPC staff 1 Outline CPC Background Prediction, monitoring, diagnostics, and climate services
More informationFred Branski President CBS
WMO Typhoon Haiyan, Prediction & Response Can we do better? Fred Branski, President, WMO Commission for Basic Systems Fred Branski President CBS AMS Washington Forum April 3, 2014 Prediction TIGGE makes
More informationWMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Operational weather forecast product delivery relevant to SDSWS
WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Operational weather forecast product delivery relevant to SDSWS Peter Chen World Weather Watch Department, WMO WMO/GEO Expert Meeting for an International
More informationAfrican Regional Committee (Prepared by Aida Diongue-Niang and Benjamin Lamptey)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Ninth Session Geneva (21 22 September 2011) CAS/ICSC-9/DOC4.1 (13 VI.2011) Item:
More informationFINDINGS OF THE ARCTIC METEOROLOGY SUMMIT
FINDINGS OF THE ARCTIC METEOROLOGY SUMMIT 2018 WWW.FMI.FI CHAIR S SUMMARY: 1 2 3 We need to be curious to explore the known unknowns. Meteorology is an elemental part of international collaboration in
More informationNW Pacific and Japan Landfalling Typhoons in 2000
NW Pacific and Japan Landfalling Typhoons in 2000 Pre-Season Forecast Issued 26th May, 2000 Produced under contract for TSUNAMI in collaboration with the UK Met. Office by Drs Paul Rockett, Mark Saunders
More informationSeamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System (SDPFS)
WMO Seamless Data-Processing and Forecasting System (SDPFS) Jan Daňhelka WMO; Commission for Hydrology Introduction GDPFS intended span over hydrology domain is a new challange for hydrological community
More informationClimate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC
More informationEconomic and Social Council
United Nations Economic and Social Council Distr.: General 18 July 2016 Original: English Committee of Experts on Global Geospatial Information Management Sixth session New York, 3-5 August 2016 Item 2
More informationEl Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016 Linda Hirons, Nicolas Klingaman This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the
More informationTIGGE-LAM archive development in the frame of GEOWOW. Richard Mladek (ECMWF)
TIGGE-LAM archive development in the frame of GEOWOW Richard Mladek (ECMWF) The group on Earth Observations (GEO) initiated the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) GEOWOW, short for GEOSS
More informationGEO Coastal Zone Community of Practice (CZCP)
! "#$%&" $'( )$*+,-.'// Global, regional and local trends in natural processes and human demands on coastal ecosystems jeopardize the ability of these ecosystems to support commerce, living resources,
More informationMJO prediction Intercomparison using the S2S Database Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF)
MJO prediction Intercomparison using the S2S Database Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF) Slide 1 WGNE Meeting 29 April 2016 1 INDEX The S2S project and S2S Database MJO prediction in S2S models MJO teleconnections
More informationSome activities relative to China THORPEX TIGGE WG
Some activities relative to China THORPEX TIGGE WG SWFDP-SeA: CMA Responsibility and Duty Be as global center, provide numerical products, and satellite convective severe weather products All products
More informationWeb-Based Decision Support Tool
Web-Based Decision Support Tool PAULA MCCASLIN AND KIRK HOLUB NOAA / GSD 5/11/11 NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations
More informationScience Objectives contained in three categories
Summer THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Science Objectives contained in three categories Increase predictability of high-impact
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationSPARC Data Assimilation Working Group Report
SPARC Data Assimilation Working Group Report Saroja Polavarapu Meteorological Research Division Environment Canada, and, University of Toronto SPARC SSG meeting, Kyoto, Japan, 25-30 October 2009 Review
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationClimate change and variability -
Climate change and variability - Current capabilities - a synthesis of IPCC AR4 (WG1) Pete Falloon, Manager Impacts Model Development, Met Office Hadley Centre WMO CaGM/SECC Workshop, Orlando, 18 November
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 2, 2019 Summary: Dramatic flip from a mild winter to a top five coldest February on record in many locations
More informationTIGGE at ECMWF. David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section Slide 1. Slide 1
TIGGE at ECMWF David Richardson, Head, Meteorological Operations Section david.richardson@ecmwf.int Slide 1 Slide 1 ECMWF TIGGE archive The TIGGE database now contains five years of global EPS data Holds
More informationWorld Weather Research Programme WWRP. PM Ruti WMO
World Weather Research Programme WWRP PM Ruti WMO Societal challenges: a 10y vision High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change Water: Modelling and predicting the
More informationJune Current Situation and Outlook
June 2018 Current Situation and Outlook Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing;
More informationWGNE Blue Book status and proposed changes
WGNE Blue Book status and proposed changes Elena Astakhova with contributions from Michael Tsyrulnikov and Hideaki Kawai Roshydromet Motivation Good memories Work with the Blue Book in 2015 Suggestion
More information