Some activities relative to China THORPEX TIGGE WG

Transcription

1 Some activities relative to China THORPEX TIGGE WG

2 SWFDP-SeA: CMA Responsibility and Duty Be as global center, provide numerical products, and satellite convective severe weather products All products provide by CMA/NMC website: Start from March 1 st, Ensemble Forecasts: 12 hourly out to 144 hours Probability of 6 hour accumulated precipitation exceeding 50mm and 100mm threshold value Probability of 24 hour accumulated precipitation exceeding 100mm threshold value Probability of 10 meter wind speed exceeding 20kt and 30kt threshold value Ensemble Prediction System meteograms for specified locations Spaghetti diagrams for 500mb geopotential height Tropical cyclone strike probability maps Tropical cyclone forecast tracks from ensemble members, including ensemble mean, deterministic and control tracks SKEW T logarithmic forecast plots for selected grid points based on NWP output (out to 144 hours, 12 hourly) Availability CMA YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES

3 20s Ensemble forecast stations for 4 country 3.Ensemble Forecasts-Stations Availability Cambodia No WMO ID Station Name Latitude_N Longtude_E Altitude[m] CMA Kompong Thom 12º 41' 104º 54' 13m Pursat 12º 33' 103º 51' 18m Rattanakiri 13º 44' 106º 59' 330m Siemreap 13º 22' 103º 51' 15m Takeo 10º 59' 104º 48' 6m Lao People's Democratic Republic No WMO ID Station Name Latitude_N Longtude_E Altitude[m] CMA Phongxali Xaignabouli Phonsavan Thakhek Attapu Thailand No WMO ID Station Name Latitude_N Longtude_E Altitude[m] CMA 1 Songkhla Nan m Thong Phaphum m Nakhon Ratchasima m Surat Thani m Viet Nam No WMO ID Station Name Latitude_N Longtude_E Altitude[m] CMA Cao Bang Đong Hoi Quy Nhon Phan Thiet Ca Mau

4 ARC Establish THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group Agree on ARC-8 meeting on Tokyo, under ARC Members from ARC, 5~7 persons Topics and tasks may focus on: G-EPS and R-EPS development and information exchange; Typhoon EPS development and information exchange; Multi-EPS technique development, and down-stream products Experiments on EPS products operational use; EPS verification and assessment; Set up strong link between GIFS-TIGGE with DOAS and PDP in ARC. Improve TIGGE Archive center capability. Severe weather and HIW. Jing Chen is the chair of the working group.

5 The 4 th THORPEX Asia Science Workshop Date: October 31 November 2, 2012 Venue: Kunming, China. The 9th ARC(Asian THORPEX Regional Committee) on the afternoon of the la st day of the workshop. Topics: THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE&TIGGE_LAM) website: thorpexasia.csp.escience.cn for more information. Meeting group: ~60 persons, from ARC country.

6 China THORPEX TIGGE Mid-term Review in Chinese. Summary draft is finished by the end of October, 2011 Be updated by the end of December,2011 Will be updated again by the end of June,2012 Will submit to ACTA Meteorological Sinica in August, 2012.

7 CMA EPS update

8 Products: T213 EFI index EFI AD = 2 1 p F( p) π 0 dp p(1 p)

9 Operational EPS Improvement T213L31 Global EPS Model Perturbation Initial perturbation Diabetics physics perturbation ET Initial perturbation Perturbation Filter Extend to 15 days T 639L60 G-EPS upgrade and extend to 10-15days15days

10 CMA new-generation model system: Configuration of GRAPES_GFS GRAPES_GFS : medium-range global forecast GRAPES_Global 50km L36 with model top at 10 hpa GRAPES_3DVAR at degree 6-hourly cycle 240 hour forecast (00,12UTC) Assimilated Obs. GTS conventional data NOAA METOP-2 amsu COSMIC Refraction AIRS FY-3 radiance METEOSAT-9 & MTSAT AMV MODIS polar AMV

11 forecast verification UTC geopotential 500hPa Correlation coefficent of forecast anomaly NH Extratropics Lat 20.0 to 90.0 Lon to N. Hemsiphere ACC 500hPa Z JJA 2009 ACC T639 GRAPES forecast verification UTC geopotential 500hPa Forecast days Correlation coefficent of forecast anomaly SH Extratropics Lat to Lon to operation grapes ACC T639 GRAPES S. Hemisphere Forecast days

12 Still Problems ACC forecast verification UTC geopotential 500hPa Correlation coefficent of forecast anomaly East Asia Lat 15.0 to 65.0 Lon 70.0 to GRAPES T639 GRAPES East Asian area Forecast days Operation Assimilation

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15 Operation EPS system CMA GLOBAL EPS Init Pert. Model Pert. Mems Res. Computer Ftime T213L31 GEPS BGM / IBM h T213 parallel testing EPS ET / ShenWei 240h New develop EPS system Init Pert. Model Pert. Mems Res. Computer Ftime T639L60 GEPS BGM SPPT IBM h GRAPES EPS1 ETKF SPPT km 240h GRAPES EPS2 SV s SPPT km 240h

16 CMA EPS Plan Phase 2 Phase 1 Region al EPS GRAPES ETKF testing GRAPES SVs testing GRAPES Svs+ETKF/EnKF GRAPES+WRF multi model eps GLOBAL EPS T639L60 BGM testing &update; 15ms, 360h GRAPES SVs testing & real time GRAPES SVs operation GRAPES SV+ETKF/ENKF testing