THORPEX A World Weather Research Programme

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2 THORPEX A World Weather Research Programme IMPLEMENTATION PLAN David Rogers, Chair WMO Expert Group for THORPEX International Research Implementation Plan

3 THORPEX Management Structure agreed at ICSC-4 3

4 Initial THORPEX Projects THORPEX Observing System Tests AMMA 2006 Cosmic data assimilation THORPEX Regional Campaigns Atlantic (EUCOS ongoing) Sahara Dust (impact on cyclogenesis) Sand and Dust Storm (participant) Demonstration Projects Beijing 2008 Multi-model Global Ensemble/Mesoscale Ensemble ACMAD Major Campaigns International Polar Year 2007/2008 4

5 THORPEX Will Extend the range of skilful weather forecasts to time scales of value in decision-making (up to 14 days) using probabilistic ensemble forecast techniques; Develop accurate and timely weather warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools; Assess the impact of weather forecasts and associated outcomes on the development of mitigation strategies to minimise the impact of natural hazards. 5

6 By Advancing our knowledge of global-to-regional influences on the initiation, evolution, and predictability of high-impact weather; Designing the strategy for interactive forecasting and targeted observations thus contributing to the process of evolving the WMO Global Observing System (GOS) which is recognized as a core component of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS); Creating and evaluating systems for the assimilation of targeted observations from satellites and in-situ measurements; Accelerating improvements in the accuracy weather forecasts; Testing and demonstrating the utility of a multinational multi-model multi-analysis global ensemble forecasting system; Improving and demonstrating decision support tools, which utilise advanced forecasting products to benefit directly social and economic sectors. 6

7 Research will focus on Predictability and Dynamical Processes Observing Systems Data Assimilation Societal and Economic Applications Developing and testing a Global Interactive Forecasting System (GIFS) THORPEX Interactive Global Grand Ensemble Prototype operational GIFS Developing unified weather and climate prediction (with WCRP) Developing of a new very high resolution global model Demonstrating the benefits of the end-to-end forecast system particularly with partners in Developing Countries Providing a weather focus for other major programmes, such as the International Polar Year Regional campaigns 7

8 Predictability and Dynamical Processes Goals Time Scale (Years) Projects Effect of dynamical and physical processes on forecast skill Influence of flow regimes on the climatology of forecast skill Determine required skill of forecast systems to predict Rossby Wave amplitudes Identify geographical regions where improved observations will lead to improved forecasts Determine relationship between macro-states of the atmosphere and predictability Predictive skill at all forecast ranges Determine what limits predictability Quantify the limits of predictability for all forecast ranges Role of model errors in forecasting Quantify and attribute sources of forecast error to initial conditions and model uncertainty Effect of initial condition uncertainty on forecasts Develop initial perturbation schemes for EPS Continue development of perturbation schemes for EPS Develop improved ensemble prediction systems Study resolution versus increased number of ensemble members Incorporate new initial perturbation schemes Incorporate NWP model perturbation schemes Adaptive methods in ensemble generation Develop optimum configuration of ensemble schemes Multi Centre ensemble research Create THORPEX data archive, access and verification tools for all THORPEX participants. Hosted at 2-4 centres worldwide Inform development of TIGGE research system Inform Operational Global Interactive Forecasting System 8

9 Observing System tasks Goals Time Scale (Years) Projects New Delivery Systems Assess current observing system strategy Examine, develop and test new delivery platforms for targeting Assess viability of observing system with new global NWP strategy Deliver new operational observing system Inform future satellite sensing systems and operational strategy Field campaigns Complete Observing System Tests Complete Observing System Tests Complete Observing System Tests Complete forecast impact studies Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components Complete forecast impact studies Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components Complete forecast impact studies Support observational needs of other THORPEX research components Refine Targeting and adaptive observing Strategies Determine targeting and adaptive observing strategies using OSEs and OSSEs Evaluate impact of strategies on forecast error Determine role of targeting and adaptive observing in Redesign of the Global Observing Network Generalise existing strategies Develop a generalised observing strategy for flow regimes dominated by physical processes Test and evaluate observing strategies in TReCs Design Observational networks Develop techniques for the optimal design of observing networks Test and evaluate network design Redesign of the Global Observing Network 9

10 Projects Goals Data Assimilation Tasks Time Scale (Years) Quantify Observing System Errors Develop generic representation of observation error Utilise high volume datasets Use of Satellite Observations Assimilation of physical processes Develop techniques to assimilate high resolution observations Develop techniques to exploit hyper spectral sounders Develop techniques to use satellite data over land and in cloudy regions Develop new methods for assimilation of active sensor data Background error covariance Methods for cycling flowdependent background errors Quality Control Model Uncertainty Test and evaluate flow dependent models of background error in 3DVar and 4DVar Develop and test Kalman-filter and other ensemble-based data assimilation schemes Develop and test adaptive quality control algorithms Develop method to incorporate model uncertainty into assimilation algorithms Complete Design of Data Assimilation System Design Observational Networks Develop techniques for the optimal design of observing networks Test and evaluate network design Redesign of the global observing network Refine targeting and adaptive observing strategies Determine targeting and adaptive observing strategies using OSEs and OSSEs Evaluate impact of strategies on forecast error Determine role of targeting and adaptive observing in redesign of the global observing network Generalise existing strategies Develop a generalized observing strategy for flow regimes dominated by physical processes Test and evaluate observing strategies in TReCs 10

11 Social and Economic Applications Projects Goals Time Scale (Years) High Impact Weather Forecasts Develop and maintain a database of high impact forecasts Maintain database Advanced Forecast Verification Methods Cost and Benefits of Improved Forecasts Develop user specific verification methods Determine which forecast improvements will have the greatest value to societies Determine the marginal value of high-impact forecasts Preliminary estimate of the cost and benefit of proposed THORPEX forecast improvements Provide a suite of verification measures for specific forecast applications Quantitative measure of value sufficient to inform government policies and business re-engineering Quantify benefits of improved forecasting system Generalise application to societies and economies worldwide Generalise application to societies and economies worldwide User Specific Weather Products Expand use of current forecast products in social and economic sectors Beta-test new products Suite of new decision support and consequence assessment tools Full utilisation of probabilistic information in decision-making Global Education and Capacity Building Refine WMO training programmes Facilitate transfer of techniques and skills to forecast centres throughout the world 11

12 Global Interactive Forecast System Goals Projects Global Interactive Forecasting System (GIFS) Time Scale (Years) Use research conducted in TIGGE to inform the development of operational forecast systems THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Complete a prototype global multimodel ensemble system consisting of at least 3 models Provide access to TIGGE database for general THORPEX research (including predictability and societal and economic impacts Complete evaluation of multimodel ensemble system and use results to optimise the GIFS through a series of quasi-operational demonstration projects Start to use system in realtime to drive regional ensembles in a series of demonstration projects 12

13 Intersection with Climate Prediction Goals Time Scale (Years) Projects Coordinate development of observing systems for weather and climate prediction Compare observing needs of weather and climate forecasting Develop synergistic observing practices for weather and climate forecasting Optimize observing networks for weather and climate forecasting Development of unified weather-climate data assimilation and prediction system Study coupled ocean-landatmosphere model initialization and model drift problems Demonstrated improvement in forecast skill in critical range through use of atmosphere, land and oceanic initial conditions Convergence of weather and climate forecasts: Coupled ocean-atmosphere-land forecast model application on scales of 1-70 days Develop tools for seamless socio-economic applications of weather and climate forecast Compare weather and climate forecast applications Develop application tools suitable with both weather and climate forecasting Demonstrate value of seamless weather-climate forecast applications 13

14 The Downstream Influence of Organized Tropical Convection, Tropical Cyclones, and the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones over the Western Pacific Patrick Harr Naval Postgraduate School L H L H L Nitta, JMSJ, 1987 Horel and Wallace, Monthly Weather Review, 1981.

15 Theme: Impacts as a Function of Scale and Season Global scale, slowly varying (intraseasonal) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) seasonal: higher amplitude during northern winter and transition seasons Regional scale (seasonal, intraseasonal) Monsoon systems, equatorial waves seasonal: transition seasons summer hemisphere Synoptic Scale Equatorial waves, tropical cyclones, extratropical transition events seasonal: summer, transition seasons

16 Regional influences during the northern Summer season Western North Pacific Monsoon/ Mei-yu: Teleconnection with precipitation over the northern plains of North America (i.e., Wang et al. 2001, Lau and Weng 2000, Nitta 1987) (Wang et al. 2001)

17 Wisc./Chi. flood event associated with the previous wave packet Mei-Yu convection Wisc/Chi. flood Mn flood

18 Impacts on Predictability A plume of increased std. dev. propagates downstream of the extratropical transition forecast Where can THORPEX help? position. Local Period maxima of occur enhanced in observations and impact assessment the base of each successive TY Tokage that concentrates on the warm-season, warm pool region trough of the ET-induced to include wave the western North Pacific monsoon, TCs, and train. Largest variability exists ET. over North America. ET Time -phasing with the midlatitudes -data assimilation impacts Application to teleconnection-based high-impact weather events via OSSEs, etc. Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle Capitalize on the components of low-frequency variability TY Tokage

19 Impacts during the winter of 2005: Southern California Rain Event

20 Feb 10-20, 2005 OLR anomalies

21 FEB 10-20, hpa Velocity Potential Anomalies 200 hpa Zonal Wind Anomalies 200 hpa height Anomalies Combination of events that lead to a circulation pattern that resulted in a deep trough over the eastern North Pacific

22 Feb 10-20, 2005 OLR anomalies Enhanced convection over the central Pacific, which was associated with the eastward extension of the MJO and Rossby response toward North America, was also related to a major outbreak of tropical cyclone activity. Cyclone Meena Feb 2005 Cyclone Olaf Feb 2005 Cyclone Nancy Feb 2005

23 PREDICTABILITY IMPACTS +120 h Where can THORPEX GFS help? 500 hpa Height Standard Deviation Role(s) of existing and proposed (measure observations of forecast for difficulty, confidence, definition of initial conditions. projected skill?) -data assimilation issues -special observations (i.e., satellite observations) phasing with midlatitudes Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle Capitalize on the low-frequency variability of the MJO Increase in a plume of high standard deviation over the eastern North Pacific that is associated with the large-scale wave train. Reduced standard deviations exist over the Eastern Hemisphere +120 h

24 Impacts on Forecasting The movement of a tropical cyclone into the midlatitudes often induces a large downstream Rossby-wave like response. These large-amplitude circulation features are often mis-positioned, which contributes to errors in the forecast timing and interaction between the decaying tropical cyclone and the midlatitude circulation into which it is moving. Maemi Isabel Maem i Fabia n Source: NCEP/EMC model verification web page Isabel Newsweek, 03 July 2000

25 Asian THORPEX Regional Committee (ARC) Planning Meeting in Tokyo, Feb Established in May 2003 The 1st ARC meeting in Seoul, Mar The 2nd ARC meeting in Beijing, Nov Current ARC members: China,India, Japan, Korea, Russia Developed Asian THORPEX Implementation Plan The 3rd meeting will be held in Beijing, Aug Wider participation to the ARC is appreciated

26 ARC Responsibilities - To identify the national and regional priorities; - To support and coordinate the planning and implementation of all THORPEX activities conducted by the region; - To organize and manage regional experiments, research activities, field campaigns, demonstration projects and other activities; - To encourage and facilitate national contributions within the region; -! To be responsible for funding, logistical and other support;

27 Research Foci in Asian THORPEX Drough t Tropics-Extra tropics Indian Monsoon Dust Snow Storm Storms Flooding Winter Monsoon Meiyu Front Tropical Cyclone Hemispheric Interactions MJO Moisture transportation jets in summer monsoon season From Dehui Chen in CMA

28 Asian THORPEX Regional Campaigns To improve forecasts of ANY high-impact weather events over the region, such as - tropical cyclones (high wind, tide and rain); - heavy rainfalls (flood, land slide); - winter severe snows/winds; - dust and sand storms; - heat waves - MJO related phenomena (monsoon onset, TC generation); - Rossby wave breakdown for initiation of high-impact weather events; - Beijing Olympic 2008 Demonstration Project; - droughts; and more.