The Progresses of CMA Ensemble Prediction Systems and TIGGE/S2S data archive

Transcription

1 The Progresses of CMA Ensemble Prediction Systems and TIGGE/S2S data archive GONG Jiandong, CHEN Jing, LI Xiaoli, TIAN Hua LIU Yongzhu, DENG Guo THORPEX TIGGE WG meeting March 18 th, 2014, Geneva

2 OUTLINE Global T639L60 EPS development Also include typhoon track eps Regional ETKF EPS progress Global SV EPS progress S2S data archive in CMA

3 CMA High Performance Computer upgrade 2005: 21TB, IBM Cluster : 43TB, IBM Cluster 1600+Shenwei : 600TB, IBM FLEX (Power 7) : 600TB (Headquarter)+400TB(Guangdong) : 1200TB(Headquarter)+400TB(Guangdong)

4 Upgrade plan for operational GEPS in 2014 year GEPS operational system real time running EPS in Shenwei computer Upgrade plan Model T213L31 T213L31 T639L61 Horizontal resulation Reduced Grid Reduced Grid Reduced Grid Vertical resolution Analysis Scheme SSI 3DVAR SSI 3DVAR GSI 3DVAR Perturbation BGM ET BGM Stochastic perturbation no no Yes Target area Global Global Global Members Lead time(days) members Global T639L60 EPS will be operational running in June 1 st 2014, and provide TIGGE products to archive center. Typhoon track EPS will be merged in this system

5 RMSE-AVE RMSE-CRL&SPREAD

6 Progress of GRAPES REPS systme based on ETKF initial perturbaton method in CMA

7 Flow chart ob s Grapes 3dv preprocess 3dv Initial value (control) REP System ETKF initial perturbation Grapes_Meso V Initial value 01,. Initial value 14 Physics per GF S preprocess Control fcst Member1 fcst,,member14 fcst 15 ensemble members(72h fcst) Post process REPS productions users

8 72h forecast Perturbation fcst per ana per Forecast lead time(utc)

9 Physics Scheme members PBL schemes Cumulus Scheme CTRL MRF BMJ PP1 MRF KF-eta PP2 MRF BMJ PP3 MRF KF PP4 MRF SAS PP5 MYJ-PBL KF-eta PP6 MYJ-PBL BMJ PP7 MYJ-PBL KF PP8 MYJ-PBL SAS PP9 YSU KF-eta PP10 YSU BMJ PP11 YSU KF PP12 YSU SAS PP13 MRF KF-eta PP14 MYJ-PBL BMJ

10 Comparison of GRAPES EPS vs WRF EPS for Precip.(from 25 Jun to 15 July, 2013)

11 REPS Case h accumulate precipitation:

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13 Future Plans 1)Qusi operational runnig in )Hybrid T639 GEPS initial perturbations and GRAPES ETKF REPS initial perturbations to improve GRAPES REPS in the next two years

14 The development of SV-based GRAPES GEPS Initial perturbations: Singular vectors computed from TLM and ADJ model of GRAPES model with total energy norm ˆ T (A A) x= xˆ A= ELE -1 L: TLM model. the total energy norm E with GRAPES model : cos cos cos r ' 2 rcos ' 2 r CT p r ' ' 2 r CT p r ' ' 2 ( u) ( v) (( )) (( )) dddz ˆ ( r) ( r) V Tr,θr,Пr,ρr are atmospheric references of GRAPES model The configuration of SV calculation 2.5 degree horizontal resolution and 37 vertical levels 24 and 36 hour optimization time interval Total energy norm, computed inside three localized region The Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics (latitude: 30N -80 N ) The Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics (latitude : 30S-80S) Simplified physical processes are used in calculation of SVs the basic perturbations are u,v theta, pi

15 The generation of initial perturbations from SVs k EN 1 2 k j m k m m, j 0 j j 1 p = (x /,x /,,x / ) = (x / ) Ana per Ana P m

16 Preliminary results of GRAPES GEPS experiments The experiments winter seasons:jan.2 11,2013 (10 days cases) model resolution : horizontal 1 1 ; vertical :37 levels ensemble size :31 ( 30 perturbed members and one control run ) integration length : 10 days the impacts of including simplified physics processes for SV calculation The GRAPES-GEPS has large ensemble mean error, and is underdispersive with small ensemble spread model problem (systematic error) Calculated SVs are too localized

17 Ongoing work and future plan Identify the impacts of model errors for large ensemble mean errors Use the updated TLM and ADJ model of GRAPES for SV calculation Increase the horizontal resolution of GRAPES GEPS

18 Data archive center CMA TIGGE data archive Continue waiting for final decision The final decision will be feedback to WMO officially in this year CMA S2S data archive Yes, CMA will archive S2S data

19 Thank you!