2012 and changes to the Rapid Refresh and HRRR weather forecast models
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1 2012 and changes to the Rapid Refresh and HRRR weather forecast models 31 October 2012 Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt Curtis Alexander NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO FPAW HRRR/RAP Model Status 31 October
2 Hourly Updated NOAA Weather Models 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale) Replaced RUC at NCEP 05/01/12 WRF, GSI, RUC features 13km RUC (mesoscale) 3km HRRR (storm-scale) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RAP, hourly 15-h fcst FPAW HRRR/RAP Model Status 31 October
3 RAP: Data assimilation engine for HRRR Hourly cycling model RAP Data Assimilation cycle Observations HRRR 3
4 HRRR Forecast Behavior 2012 Targets (1) Lower peak bias in RAP/HRRR Model Development and Evaluation convection over eastern US (2) Fewer false alarms (3) Improved timing of convective initiation (4) More success maintaining mesoscale convective systems (5) More realistic reflectivity GSD FPAW Program Review HRRR/RAP High-Resolution Model Rapid Status Refresh 313 October March
5 RAP and HRRR Changes RAP-ESRL (13 km) HRRR (3 km) Model WRFv Physics changes (convection, microphysics, land-surface, PBL) Numerics changes (w-damp upper bound conditions, 5 th -order vertical advection) MODIS land use, fractional min shortwave radiation New reflectivity diagnostic WRFv Physics changes (microphysics, land-surface, PBL) Numerics changes (w-damp upper bound conditions, 5 th -order vertical advection) MODIS land use, fractional min shortwave radiation New reflectivity diagnostic Data Assimilation Soil adjustment Temp-dep radarhydrometeor building PW assim mods Cloud assim mods Tower/nacelle/sodar observations GLD360 lightning GSI merge with trunk Radial wind assim 3 km/15 min reflect assim 3 km radial wind assim 3 km cloud cycling 3 km land-surface cycling GSD FPAW Program Review HRRR/RAP High-Resolution Model Rapid Status Refresh 313 October March
6 RAPv2 (2012 HRRR) more accurate than RAPv1 (2011 HRRR, NCEP) for Wind Temperature 6h forecast RMS errors vs. radiosonde observations (weather balloons) - July September
7 NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh HRRR Model Forecast of Mid-Atlantic Derecho 29 June 2012 Radar observed HRRR forecast Derecho loop Composite Reflectivity (dbz)
8 NOAA Next-Generation RAP / HRRR System Forecast of Mid-Atlantic Derecho 29 June 2012 Radar observed Valid 11PM EDT HRRR 12-h forecast Real-time HRRR forecast HRRR Experiment with 2011 RAP Composite Reflectivity (dbz)
9 2013 add 3-km 15-min radar assimilation for HRRR Now: radar data assimilation only in 13km RAP By Jan 2013: continued radar assimilation in RAP (13 km) + 1h radar assimilation in HRRR (at 3 km) before HRRR forecast begins obs 3DVar + cloud analysis RAP 13 km fcst radar data fcst t 0 2 h t 0 1 h t 0 interpolation HRRR 3 km fcst radar data radar data radar radar data data Future: cycling with all obs (including radar) on HRRR (3-km) grid 3DVar and reflectivity-based temperature tendency, hybrid / ensemble assimilation and forecasting HRRR reflectivity DA same formulation of reflectivity-based temperature tendency as in RAP no digital filter
10 HRRR Storm Skill: 20 dbz radar reflectivity threshold Critical Success Index (CSI) Bias with 3-km without 3-km Bias = with 3-km without 3-km upscaled to 40-km grid native 3-km grid 3-day retrospective period June 2011, forecasts every 2 hours composite reflectivity verification over eastern half of US (widespread convective storms)
11 Composite Reflectivity 2200 UTC 11 June h fcst without 3-km 0-h fcst with 3-km 1000 km explicit precipitation from RAP observations
12 Composite Reflectivity 2200 UTC 11 June h fcst without 3-km 0-h fcst with 3-km 1000 km observations storms developed during HRRR cycling; locations were forced partly by reflectivitybased heating
13 Composite Reflectivity 2300 UTC 11 June h fcst without 3-km 1-h fcst with 3-km 1000 km observations mature convective systems benefit particularly from subhourly
14 Composite Reflectivity 0100 UTC 12 June h fcst without 3-km 3-h fcst with 3-km 1000 km convective systems maturing; errors apparent observations
15 Composite Reflectivity 0100 UTC 12 June h fcst without 3-km 3-h fcst with 3-km 1000 km observations better representation of convective character and location
16 Composite Reflectivity 0400 UTC 12 June h fcst without 3-km 6-h fcst with 3-km 1000 km observations differences persist (cumulative effects following from radar and/or other DA)
17 HRRR Transition to NCEP Current 1 computer running HRRR NOAA/ESRL Boulder Current reliability: 97% for last 12h months (allowing up to 3h gaps) computers running HRRR interim solution Boulder computer 1 (jet) Fairmont, WV computer 2 (zeus) Expected reliability to increase further to % via coordination of downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers 2015 NCEP running HRRR NOAA/NCEP computing budget will allow no increase before 2015 Conclusion: Interim HRRR computing for on 2 sites to provide research regular HRRR from NOAA for NWS, FAA, DOE/energy users FPAW HRRR/RAP Model Status 31 October
18 HRRR 12 hr fcst availability Includes all missed/incomplete runs Increasing reliability from HRRR running on zeus (Fairmont, WV computer) for 2013 Jet (HRRR feeding CoSPA) Zeus (HRRR backup) FPAW HRRR/RAP Model Status 31 October
19 13km Rapid Refresh and 3km HRRR hourly updated weather models ESRL experimental version RAPv1 used in 2011 Initialized 2011 HRRR effective but too many storms RAPv2 used in 2012 Initialized 2012 HRRR Better use of surface obs / radar, storm bias eliminated HRRR 2012 Major improvement over 2011 HRRR, storm coverage/accuracy HRRR km/15min radar assimilation Initialized from RAP-2013 Available 45 min earlier, much more accurate 0-15h storm forecasts, more reliable 2-computer NWS-NCEP - operational Implemented 1 May 2012 RAPv2 - Scheduled to be implemented in June 2013 HRRR estimated
20 NOAA Next-Generation Global Model Development FIM Flow-following finite volume Icosahedral Model soccer-ball grid design for uniform grid spacing New 14-day forecast twice daily Real-time experimental at ESRL atmosphere FIM ihycom Icosahedral Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model - Matched grid design to FIM for coupled ocean- atmosphere prediction system - Experimental testing at ESRL, Navy development ocean ihycom
21 Hurricane Isaac 7-day forecast track by FIM9 (15km) from Friday 24 Aug 18z run Initial Position of Isaac 18z 24 Aug Observed track for Isaac
22 Eyjafjallajökull 2010: Comparison of FIM-Chem volcanic ash forecasts with London VAAC at 1800Z, April 17 and 0000Z, April 18
23 Why NOAA Weather Modeling Matters Innovation to meet crucial societal needs: FIM Protecting lives and property Improving quality of life Aviation / Severe weather / Energy tornadoes hurricanes wind events floods winter storms air quality What makes it possible - Improved model formulation - Improved data assimilation - Increased computer power HRRR
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