Amy Harless. Jason Levit, David Bright, Clinton Wallace, Bob Maxson. Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, MO

Transcription

1 Amy Harless Jason Levit, David Bright, Clinton Wallace, Bob Maxson Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, MO

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3 AWC Mission Decision Support for Traffic Flow Management Ensemble Applications at AWC Testbed Activities

4 The AWC delivers consistent, timely and accurate weather information for the world airspace system We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight

5 Support National Airspace traffic flow management and mitigate the impacts of various weather phenomenon including convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash through the issuance of forecast products Support Operational Bridging activities Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools 3-hour Tarmac Rule

6 8 August 2009 Express Jet Flight 2816 IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300 Deplaned at 0600 Passenger Bill of Rights Three-Hour Tarmac Rule in place 29 April 2010 Up to $27,500 per passenger fine

7 OEP 35 airports are commercial US airports with significant activity >70% of passengers move through these Airports Golden Triangle: Chi-NY-ATL; Weather is critical for smooth operations

8 Source: Research and Innovative Technology Administration (RITA), US DOT

9 Planning Tool: Convective Collaborative Forecast Product The Strategic Planning Tool for National Airspace System (NAS) Provides a strategic tool for convective weather mitigation Enables ATC to better manage the National Air Space A ½ hour collaboration Conducted via a chat room and white-board session hosted by AWC Forecast comments can be typed Changes to the preliminary charts may also be drawn by: NWS Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) forecasters NWS Weather Forecast Offices Meteorological Services Canada Airlines

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11 Develop specialized guidance for the specific application (convection and other aviation weather hazards) Design guidance that Help blend deterministic and ensemble approaches Provide guidance for uncertainty/probabilistic forecasts Provide guidance that aids confidence (i.e., better deterministic forecasts) Illustrates plausible scenarios Allows for diagnostic analysis not just a statistical black-box

12 SREF Guidance 3-hourly forecasts out to 87 hrs and hourly forecasts out to 39 hrs Forecasts updated four times daily (03, 09, 15, 21 UTC) Extensive upgrade in the Fall 2011 ETA and RSM-based members will be eliminated Members generated from NMMB, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM Resolution increased to km Calibrated Thunder Calibrated CCFP guidance Impacts on the jet routes (i.e., joint probability of thunder and aircraft on jet route) New tools Predictive weather impacts using real-time flight position data

13 SREF Guidance Meets the needs at AWC Operational Mesoscale Temporal scale is relevant to products issued Majority of AWC products are for periods <24 hours

14 Hourly calibrated thunder probability Predictors Cloud Physics Thunder Parameter (CPTP) 1 Total precipitation during previous hour 0.01 Predictand Lightning strike within a 40km grid box

15 Mapping actual frequency of predictand to the forecast probability at F039 Frequency [0%, 5%, ] Perfect Forecast Skill Area Climatology/No Resolution

16 Calibrated Probability of a T-Storm Probability of Tops > 37,000 Feet Probabilistic information derived from the SREF

17 All Flights < 10,000 Feet All Flights > 25,000 Feet Snapshot probability of an aircraft inside the 20 km grid box (using historical aircraft position data)

18 Impact of Thunderstorms: < 10 kft Impact of Tops: En Route > 25 kft *Combine composite aircraft position data with probabilistic weather information *From operational bridging perspective this is where the airports and jet routes will be impacted by weather.

19 Hourly calibrated CCFP Conditions probability Predictors CAPE 250 J/kg Cloud Tops FL250 Predictand (CCFP criteria) 40 dbz composite reflectivity tops FL250 25% coverage over 3000 mi 2 region

20 15-hr forecast; Valid: 2300 UTC Fri 27 May 2011

21 15-hour forecast; Valid: 2300 UTC Fri 27 May 2011

22 Issued: 1900 UTC Fri May Valid: 2300 UTC Fri 27 May 2011

23 AWC High Resolution Models in Operations The future is storm-scale High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Hi-Res Window

24 How do we make use of such detailed information; want to Ensemble this!

25 Storm Scale Ensembles in Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) CAPS 50-member storm scale ensemble (SSEF) Participation in the HWT Spring Experiment AFWA/DOD 10-member storm-scale ensemble AWT Summer Experiment 2011

26 Probability of echo top > 25,000 ft Max Composite Reflectivity Probability Matched Mean 1 hr Acc Precip

27 Convective Mode: Probability of a Squall Line Determine contiguous areas exceeding 35 dbz Estimate mean length-to-width ratio of the contiguous area; search for ratios > 5:1 Flag grid point if the length exceeds: 200 miles Can aircraft go through line? Over tops? How will this affect the airport?

28 F024: Valid 00 UTC 18 Apr 2008 Linear mode + 25 miles

29 F026: Valid 02 UTC 18 Apr 2008 Linear mode + 25 miles

30 Aviation impacts ~ 01 UTC 18 April 2008 Image provided by Jon Racy

31 10-member ensemble 4-km resolution Domain ~2/3 eastern United States Assess storm-scale relevant weather impacts (e.g., echo tops, porosity, orientation of convection w.r.t jet routes) Evaluate visualization tools Supports AWT 2011 Summer Experiment

32 Goals: AWT 2011 Summer Experiment Test and evaluate new forecast data (emphasis on ensemble data), visualization tools, and communication methods for improved decision support for stakeholders and partners Improve and evolve existing operational decision support products Strengthen existing and build new partnerships Support Operational Bridging activities

33 AWT 2011 Summer Experiment Activities: Evaluate current weather impacts to the NAS, focusing on the Golden Triangle (Chicago-New York-Atlanta) and the Core-30 airports Utilize the suite of experimental data to create daily aviation weather impact graphics that depict regions of convective weather that could impact the NAS Discuss and assess each dataset s value as a decision support tool Work towards creating techniques for long-term traffic flow management

34 Data: AWT 2011 Summer Experiment AFWA 4km 10-member convection-permitting ensemble NCAR Aviation Impact ensemble-based guidance (Matthias Steiner) EMC Short-Range Ensemble (SREF) and the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) UW/CIMSS GOES-R Convective Initiation/Convective Nearcast GSD 3km High Resolution Rapid Refresh MDL/NextGen CE Convective Probability Forecast MIT/LL Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

35 At AWC we are Taking advantage of operational mesoscale ensembles Developing mission-focused guidance Exploring high-resolution ensemble applications To support our mission To support future services (Operational Bridging) Focusing on enhancing ensemble usage in 1-5 year time frame at AWC Implementing the AWT Summer Experiment (June 27 July 22)

36 Member IC/LBC Microphysics PBL CCN or N c 1 UM WSM5 YSU 300 N c 2 GFS Thompson MYNN 300 N c 3 GEM Ferrier MYJ Not set 4 NOGAPS WDM6 QNSE 100 CCN 5 UM Thompson YSU 100 N c 6 GFS Goddard MYNN 100 CCN 7 GEM WDM6 MYJ 3000 CCN 8 NOGAPS WDM5 YSU 100 CCN 9 UM MY QNSE Not set 10 GFS WSM6 MYJ 300 N c