New Meteorological Services Supporting ATM

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1 New Meteorological Services Supporting ATM Meteorological Services in the Terminal Area (MSTA)...providing MET services to support a move from Air Traffic Control (ATC) to more integrated and collaborative Air Traffic Management (ATM)

2 The Challenge (1) ICAO Annex 3 stipulates MET Services...in support of aerodrome operations Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Trend-type Landing Forecast (TREND) Aerodrome Observations (METAR/SPECI) Aerodrome Warnings...in support of FIR, regional, global operations AIRMET/SIGMET WAFS products (GRIB data, Charts) Most (but not all) are provided in highly Most (but not all) are provided in highlycondensed, coded, textual format

3 The Challenge (2) These Services do not meet the needs of today s aircraft operators and users of the ANS Not specific enough Nothing between aerodrome and FIR/global scale Limited (or no) info on important parameters The problem has been recognized by ICAO MET services required by ATM to optimize traffic flow in the en-route and terminal areas

4 MSTA objective ICAO and WMO groups are working on this to address new and evolving ATM user needs and to avoid the costly parallel development of similar weather products of varying and confusing data formats to develop a detailed MSTA proposal, supported by ICAO and the aviation user communities, ready for endorsement by the next Conjoint ICAO MET/AIM Divisional Meeting/WMO CAeM Session (currently scheduled for 2014) and reflected in ICAO Annex 3 (in 2016) Focusing effort on a particular need: The Terminal Area

5 What Will It Be? A web-based net-centric user-oriented service Fed by a database that will support other services such as charts and a simplified version (text or object) for uplink to the flight deck Gridded/object data would be available for direct integration into users decision-support i systems (DSTs) Integrate the most important info in an easy-to-use fashion, and possible colour-coding to indicate potential ti impact of ATM

6 MSTA Scenarios Not just weather parameters separately, but grouped into scenarios wind (type [crosswind, wind], height, threshold) convection forecast (TS, CB, radar related parameters hazardous weather - liquid/ freezing/ frozen precipitation and accumulation Low cloud/ visibility storms (sandstorm, snowstorm, tropical cyclone) In-flight turbulence in-flight aircraft icing Parameters to support Continuous Descent Operations (CDO)

7 MSTA Timeframes Three timeframes to support differing i needs Nowcast (0 to 1-2 hours) High-resolution, rapid update Supports tactical decision-making Short-term forecast (up to 6 hours) Lower resolution, covers greater area Supports tactical decision-making Outlook (up to 2 days ahead) Even coarser resolution Supports pre-tactical (or strategic) decision-making e.g. advance notice of low visibility conditions or other situations that could result in flight delays being imposed by ATC

8 Deterministic/Probabilistic People are most comfortable with deterministic answers (i.e. yes/no, specific values). However, they suggest a level of certainty and precision that can be misleading at times For example, when predicting the occurrence of a thunderstorm at a specific point (a specific circle of 5 km radius), skill currently is limited to about 30 minutes Thus longer-term predictions need to be presented using a larger circle, reducing the accuracy targets, or taking a different approach (i.e. probabilistic) The challenge is to create probabilistic guidance that s meaningful. DSTs need to incorporate probabilistic info Also the need to incorporate a measure of confidence in the forecast

9 Enroute Meteorological Services Wind, temperature, icing, turbulence and CB forecast information is now available in gridded form for the entire globe suitable for direct ingest into DSTs and Flight Planning/Flight Management Systems. This information can be processed using suitable software to provide displays of the parameters listed above, or the information can be integrated into flight planning systems (airlines) or produce aircraft trajectories (ATM). The spatial and temporal resolution is expected to improve The spatial and temporal resolution is expected to improve further over the years ahead.

10 Conclusion Meteorological services in the future ( ) will be less like today s services which largely provide packaged information, e.g., METAR and TAF combine all of the weather elements into a simply code. In future, the separate elements will be provided for direct ingest into ATM and flight deck systems. The Decision Support Tools (ATM) and Flight Management Systems (FMS) will process these elements as required, i.e., these systems will do their own packaging and presentation (which will include overlaying meteorological information with other data, such as NavData, aircraft situation displays, radar displays etc). Future meteorological information will be provided in probabilistic terms to give users greater confidence in the integrity of the information. Meteorological information will be provided from a common database (within a State) so that all users will have access to the same information.

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