Welcome to the 5 th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

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1 N C E P Welcome to the 5 th NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop William. M. Lapenta Acting Director Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

2 The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC NHC NCO HPC OPC EMC SPC AWC SWPC

3 The EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements: Develop and Enhance numerical guidance Improve NCEP s numerical forecast model systems via: Scientific upgrades Optimization Additional observations Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations Transform & integrate Code Algorithms Techniques Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation 3 Maintain operational model suite The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems Modify current operational system to adapt to ever-present external changes EMC location within the funnel

4 Foundation for Ensemble Systems Scientific and technical preparedness High due to major advance in past 50+ years Past initiatives MDL PoP and other probabilistic products since 1971 NCEP ensemble forecasting since 1992 Regional, global, wave and climate (seamless) Numerous other guidance and products by NCEP centers and WFO/RFC Corporate policy Version 2005 NWS strategic plan Deliver better products and service Provide weather, water and climate forecasts in probabilistic terms (2005) NCEP strategic plan From the Sun to the Sea Where America s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin Products in probabilistic terms conveying levels of uncertainty

5 Recent Past Past four ensemble user workshops Last workshop was May 2008, Laurel MD NRC Report on Completing the Forecast (2006) All major recommendations embraced NWS Forecast Uncertainty Program (NFUSE, 2007-) Corporate commitment and coordination AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF, 2007-) Enterprise-wide planning and coordination NWS National Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction (NMPP, 2010-) Status and Way Forward

6 Forecast Lead Time NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Weather and Climate Outlook NCEP Model Perspective Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months North American Ensemble Forecast System Global Ensemble Forecast System Global Forecast System Benefits Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Waves Real Time Ocean Forecast System Hurricane WRF & GFDL Space Weather Tsunami

7 GEFS Upgrade Planned for Q4FY11 NH 500mb Height AC Ensemble Mean 01 Dec 2009 to 31 Jan days Resolution Increase T190L28 (~70km) T254L42 (~55km) (0-192 hrs) T190L28 T190L42 ( hrs) Improved initial perturbations Improved stochastic total tendency perturbations Operational Upgrade 11.5 days

8 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach NAEFS Value-added by including FNMOC ensemble into NAEFS T2m: Against analysis (NCEP s evaluation, 4 of 4) Stat. corr. NAEFS + FNMOC 0.5 CRPS skill Raw NCEP NAEFS Raw NCEP ensemble has modest skill (3.4d) Statistically corrected NCEP ensemble has improved skill (4.8d) Combined NCEP CMC (NAEFS) show further increase in skill (6.2d) Addition of FNMOC to NAEFS leads to modest improvement (6.7d)

9 Skill Skill Skill Skill Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV2 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar CFS Operational CFS V2 WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar 3 days Days Days 22 days WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec CFS Operational CFS V2 WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec 7 days Days Days 25 days

10 Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM Increase horizontal resolution: ARW (45 km to 35 km) NMM (40 km to 32 km) RSM (40 km to 32 km) Total Membership = 21: Adding 4 WRF Eliminating 4 Eta Implemented 27 October Ranked 2009 Probabilistic Skill Score CONUS 2 meter temperature 02 February 10 August 2009 New SREF N-1 version For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier 10 Improved CONUS model (dash) short range ensemble system Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for output (black solid) the 10 WRF members Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC) Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA) unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation) fix cloud base (aviation) BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC)

11 0:30:00 1:15:00 2:00:00 2:45:00 3:30:00 4:15:00 5:00:00 5:45:00 6:30:00 7:15:00 8:00:00 8:45:00 9:30:00 0:15:00 1:00:00 1:45:00 2:30:00 3:15:00 0:00:00 0:45:00 1:30:00 2:15:00 3:00:00 3:45:00 4:30:00 5:15:00 6:00:00 6:45:00 7:30:00 8:15:00 9:00:00 9:45:00 10:30:00 11:15:00 12:00:00 12:45:00 13:30:00 14:15:00 15:00:00 15:45:00 16:30:00 17:15:00 18:00:00 18:45:00 19:30:00 20:15:00 21:00:00 21:45:00 22:30:00 23:15:00 Number of Nodes STRATUS HWM Production Suite on Supercomputer Node use for STRATUS HWM Node use for January 2010 Development Work Fence High Water Mark Time of the day (utc) dev ofs_atl test para multi misc cdc dgex aqm cdas dev ofs_atl test para multi misc cdc dgex aqm cdas hiresw sref hiresw sref godas cfs godas cfs mrf firewx mrf firewx merge ruc2 hur merge ruc2 hur wave gefs wave gefs gdas gfs_ana ysis gfs ndas nam gdas gfs_anal

12 Number of Nodes Production Suite on Supercomputer January 2011 Development Work Fence High Water Mark Capacity Change: 50% increase in production 80% decrease in development Time of the day (utc)

13 Workshop Theme Continue to support NWS in its transition from single value to probabilistic forecasting Continue to convey forecast uncertainty in user relevant form Review NCEP ensemble forecast systems Review probabilistic forecast products

14 Workshop Topics NCEP ensemble systems and products MDL/OHD ensemble based products NCEP service centers, NWS WFO/RFC reviews and requests International users reviews (include TIGGE program) National users/developers (review) Data distribution/access Working group discussion

15 NWS Roadmap Building a Weather-Ready Nation Science & Technology Plan Kick-off April 11, 2011

16 S&T Leads Brad Colman, Marie Lovern S&T Plan Co-leads John Cortinas OAR Planning Lead Paula Davidson Technical Lead Steve Lord Super SME Situational Awareness Numerical Guidance Forecast Uncertainty Forecast & Knowledge Mgmt Curtis Marshall, NWS Ron Lowther, OAR Bill Lapenta, NWS Dave Stensrud, OAR Tony Eckel, NWS Tom Hamill, OAR Larry Dunn, NWS Woody Roberts, OAR Information Technology Tom Day, NWS TBD, OAR Research to Operations/O2R Paula Davidson, NWS John Gaynor, OAR 16

17 Science and Technology Plan Improve Situational Awareness Enhanced awareness and common operating picture Advance Numerical Guidance State-of-the-science environmental numerical analysis and forecast capability Develop Capability to Communicate Uncertainty Completing the forecast through high-quality uncertainty estimates for customized risk assessment and decision making 17