California DWR and WSWC 2018 Seasonal to Sub- Seasonal Workshop

Transcription

1 California DWR and WSWC 2018 Seasonal to Sub- Seasonal Workshop CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROGER V. PIERCE NOAA & WESTERN STATES FEDERAL AGENCY SUPPORT TEAM (WESTFAST)

2 WestFAST Environmental Protection Agency National Oceanic Atmospheric Adm. Bureau of Reclamation Bureau of Land Management U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service U.S. Forest Service Natural Resources Conservation Service U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Department of Defense U.S. Department of Energy National Aeronautics & Space Adm.

3 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Weather Center (AWC) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) NCEP Central Operations (NCO) National Hurricane Center (NHC) Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)

4 NWS Product Focus

5 Climate Prediction Center ORIGIN OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WITH HELP FROM: Weather Forecast Offices NOAA Satellite Information Service NOAA Ocean Service National Data Buoy Center NOAA Research Scripps and many other research and data collection organizations

6 Cut Off Low Pressure Systems (Blocking Pattern) Omega Block Rex Block Cut off /Blocking High Pressure Cut Off Low Pressure

7 Simplified Global Winds

8 More Realistic Flow

9 Vertical Structure of the Atmo sphere Trop 35,000 ft Strato 100,000 ft StraPause 160,000 ft

10 90,000 ft 35,000 ft 18,000 ft 5000 ft

11

12 Westerlies - Wind Pattern Flows West to East

13 Westerlies - Wind Pattern Flows West to East e/level/orthographic= ,9.81,263

14 What causes it to cut off? Low starts off as a small wave in the westerly winds Winds increase on the west and south side as this wave decreases in pressure If the winds increase enough, it produces a breaking wave pattern such that as winds increase further and round the bottom of the low pressure system It breaks away from the westerly flow and nearby induced high pressure forces winds around the low pressure, further cutting it off from the main stream flow

15 Omega Block

16 Rex Block

17 Cut Off / Blocking High

18 Cut Off Low Cut to examples from comet

19

20

21 0 hours later (5/10/18)

22 12 hours later (5/11/18)

23 24 hours later (5/11/18)

24 48 hours (May 12, 2018)

25 72 hours (May 13, 2018)

26 96 Hours (May 14, 2018)

27 120 Hours (May 15, 2018)

28 144 Hours (May 16, 2018)

29 168 Hours (May 17, 2018)

30 192 Hours (May 18, 2018)

31 216 Hours (May 19, 2018)

32 240 Hours (May 20, 2018)

33 Integrated Transport - Plainview

34 How did the model do? May 16, 3028

35 144 Hours (May 16, 2018) Observed

36 Credits great graphics Ultimate Weather Eduction Website: UCAR COMET: Twister Data NCEP GFS:

37 DATA

38 DATA

39 Weather Climate Linkages ENSO Cycle ( El Niño/La Nina) Madden/Julian Oscillation (MJO) Teleconnections Blocking

40 ENSO

41 Madden - Julian

42 Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin.

43 Blocking

44 Future A lot of work to go Research - That isn t being funded appropriately at the Federal level - rp

45 Sea Surface Temperature

46 Products Day Outlook Subset -running precipitation accumulation (CFS) 8-10 Day Outlook Subset running precipitation accumulation (CFS) 30 Day Outlook, updated every 15 days 90 Day Outlook Running 90 day Outlooks to a year

47 Teleconnections AO (Arctic Oscillation) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) PNA (Pacific-North American Pattern) AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) Archive of Daily Indices Monthly Teleconnection Indices

48 AO and AAO

49 North Atlantic Oscillation / Pacific - North American pattern (NAO/PNA)

50 Products Day Outlook Subset -running precipitation accumulation (CFS) 8-10 Day Outlook Subset running precipitation accumulation (CFS) 30 Day Outlook, updated every 15 days 90 Day Outlook Running 90 day Outlooks to a year

51 CFS Week 3 and 4

52 CPC week 3 and 4 forecasts beyond Day 6-14 outlooks

53

54

55 North America Multi- Model prediction Drier Tropics due to cooler waters

56 Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook

57 Product Changes Experimental Week 3 and 4 Temperature Operational in 2017 Experimental Week 3 and 4 Precipitation little skill and continues in development Hazard Products Probabilistic Sea Ice Extent Product in Development

58 People and Money CPC staff 39 lowest in it s existence (48) Directly tied to S2S 4 to 8 people ($500k) Collaborative forecast process ($500k) Product development ($200k) Total CPC 9 Million CFS Environmental Modeling Center leveraging Not a clean cut value. Computing huge separate funding NOAA Research Climate Program Office, PSD, ARL, CSD, GSD, and NESDIS.

59 Integrated Water Vapor Transport

60 CFS 20 Member Ensemble 500 mb

61 Am I Out of Time?

62 Future A lot of work to go Research - That isn t being funded appropriately -rp