NOAA s Severe Weather Forecasting System: HRRR to WoF to FACETS

Transcription

1 NOAA s Severe Weather Forecasting System: HRRR to WoF to FACETS David D NOAA / Earth System Research Laboratory / Global Systems Division Nowcasting and Mesoscale Research Working Group Meeting World Meteorological Organization Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 2017

2 NOAA s Severe Weather Forecasting System: HRRR to WoF to FACETS David D NOAA / Earth System Research Laboratory / Global Systems Division A Collaborative Effort Between NOAA / Earth System Research Laboratory / Global Systems Division and NOAA / National Severe Storms Laboratory Nowcasting and Mesoscale Research Working Group Meeting World Meteorological Organization Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 2017

3 NOAA RAP/HRRR Hourly-Updating Weather Forecast Suite 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) 39 h forecasts NOAA s Severe Wx Forecasting System

4 NOAA RAP/HRRR Hourly-Updating Weather Forecast Suite 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) 39 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions NOAA s Severe Wx Forecasting System 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 18 h forecasts

5 NOAA RAP/HRRR Hourly-Updating Weather Forecast Suite 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) 39 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions NOAA s Severe Wx Forecasting System 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 18 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions 750-m HRRR nest for field experiments, test scale-aware physics, etc.

6 NOAA RAP/HRRR Hourly-Updating Weather Forecast Suite 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) 39 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions NOAA s Severe Wx Forecasting System 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 18 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions 750-m HRRR nest for field experiments, test scale-aware physics, etc. Experimental HRRR Domains for Alaska and Hawaii

7 NOAA RAP/HRRR Hourly-Updating Weather Forecast Suite 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) 39 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions NOAA s Severe Wx Forecasting System 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 18 h forecasts Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions 750-m HRRR nest for field experiments, test scale-aware physics, etc. Experimental HRRR Domains for Alaska and Hawaii Two Different Types of HRRR Ensembles

8 RAP and HRRR to WoF RAP and HRRR are hourly cycled models Cycled model to reduce model spin-up time RAP inherits GFS model background, HRRR is forced by RAP Assimilate observations (e.g., sonde, satellite, surface met, aircraft) every hour HRRR also assimilates sub-hourly radar observations Forecasts out to 18 (HRRR) or 39 (RAP) hours Analysis and forecasts available < 2 hours after initialization Operational models run at NCEP, with experimental versions also Experimental HRRR ensemble output being used in

9 RAP and HRRR to WoF RAP and HRRR are hourly cycled models Cycled model to reduce model spin-up time RAP inherits GFS model background, HRRR is forced by RAP Assimilate observations (e.g., sonde, satellite, surface met, aircraft) every hour HRRR also assimilates sub-hourly radar observations Forecasts out to 18 (HRRR) or 39 (RAP) hours Analysis and forecasts available < 2 hours after initialization Operational models run at NCEP, with experimental versions also Experimental HRRR ensemble output being used in Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) is a NOAA research program Scientific objective: can NWP models (including DA) be improved such that severe Wx forecast warnings can be issued from their forecast output? WoF NWP ensemble very similar to HRRR ensemble but domain is smaller and higher resolution (focused around region of convection) WoF ensemble uses HRRR ensemble as initial conditions, but assimilates radar and surface met data at very fast timescales (3-5 minutes) Ensemble forecasts out to 1 hour Probabilistic output and analyses (this is FACETS )

10 HRRR to WoF (in pictures) HRRR Domain

11 HRRR to WoF (in pictures) HRRR Domain WoF (Storm Scale) Domain

12 HRRR to WoF (in pictures) HRRR Domain WoF (Storm Scale) Domain

13 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) Tornado Location *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 13

14 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) Tornado Location *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 14

15 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. More advanced notice and less overwarning compared to standard warnings. Overwarned Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) Advanced Notice Tornado Location *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 15

16 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. More advanced notice and less overwarning compared to standard warnings. Refined, user-specific info provided on modern technology (updated every two minutes). Overwarned Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) Advanced Notice Tornado Location Take Cover Now! *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 16

17 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. Very Close! Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) More advanced notice and less overwarning compared to standard warnings. Refined, user-specific info provided on modern technology (updated every two minutes). Overwarned Advanced Notice Tornado Location Take Cover Now! *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 17

18 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. Very Close! Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) More advanced notice and less overwarning compared to standard warnings. Refined, user-specific info provided on modern technology (updated every two minutes). Overwarned Advanced Notice Be Alert! Tornado Location Take Cover Now! Be Alert! *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 18

19 FACETs* Concept: Next-Generation Warnings Warn-on-Forecast model provides detailed tornado probabilities. Very Close! Probability of Tornado (from Warn-on-Forecast Model) More advanced notice and less overwarning compared to standard warnings. Refined, user-specific info provided on modern technology (updated every two minutes). Driven by NOAA research in meteorological and social science. Overwarned Advanced Notice Be Alert! Tornado Location Take Cover Now! Be Alert! *Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats 19