The World Weather Research Program. David Parsons and Gilbert Brunet WWRP

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1 The World Weather Research Program David Parsons and Gilbert Brunet

2 Assessments Prediction Observations Service Delivery Capacity Building

3 Membership of JSC Dr Gilbert BRUNET, Chairman of -JSC, Environment Canada Dr Barbara BROWN, Chairperson of Working Group on Verification, NCAR, USA Dr David BURRIDGE, Chairman of THORPE ICSC, ECMWF Dr Lianshou CHEN, Chairman of Working Group on Tropical Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration Dr Tom KEENAN, Chairman of Working Group on Nowcasting Weather Forecasting, Bureau of Meteorology Research Center, Australia Mr Brian Mill, Chairman of Working Group on Social and Economic Research and Applications, Environment Canada Dr Martin MILLER, Chairman of Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, ECMWF Mrs Jeanette ONVLEE, Chairperson of Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Dr Dave PARSONS, Member, JSC-, NCAR, USA Dr Melvyn SHAPIRO, Member, JSC-, NCAR, USA Prof Huw C.DAVIES, Member of JSC-, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH, Switzerland Dr Ko KOIZUMI, Member of JSC-, Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency Mr Jean Philippe LAFORE, Member of JSC-, CNRM, Météo-France

4 World Weather Research Program research focuses on the intersection of challenging science and the need to serve society through advancing predictive skill and the utilization of weather information. research focuses on high-impact weather Activities span from basic research in the academic community to operational contributions Activities include: Collaborative and coordinated research activities on priority areas Specific research projects of limited duration (Forecast and Research Demonstration Projects (FDPs and RDPs), Testbeds, and field campaigns) Expert reports on the current status and future direction of critical research areas Sponsorship of conferences, workshops, symposia and other meetings

5 Overview of Core Research Areas Working Group on Nowcasting --- Local prediction from minutes to ~3-6 hours Working Group on Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research -- Regional prediction from hours to days THORPE program --- Global numerical weather prediction from 1 day to 14 days with a growing role in subseasonal and seasonal prediction (collaboration with the climate community) Working Group on Societal and Economic Research and Applications - - Understanding and advancing society s use of weather information Working Group on Tropical Meteorology -- Research across the scales focusing on tropical cyclones and high impact weather in monsoon systems Expert team on Weather Modification -- Guidance on state of knowledge and its relationship to practices

6 Collaborative Activities Working Group on Numerical Experimentation -- Forum for encouraging testing and improving of data assimilation systems and numerical models (Joint with WCRP) Joint Working Group on Verification Research -- Research leading to improved assessment of predictive skill across the scales (Joint with the Working Group on Numerical Experiments) Project on Sand and Dust Storm Warning, Assessment and Advisory Systems -- Research leading to improved assessment of predictive skill across the scales (Joint with Global Atmosphere Watch Project) International Polar Year -- Cluster of ten THORPE projects under IPY Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies -- Goal to improve the efficacy of bacterial meningitis prevention and control strategies. (Led by the World Health Organization) Year of Tropical Convection -- Goal to improve the representation of tropical convection and its two-way interaction with the large scale in weather and climate models (Joint with WCRP) and seamless prediction Shanghai MHEWS -- components are tropical cyclone verification and mesoscale ensemble research International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones -- Recommendations on research directions and operational practices (Joint with Operational side of WMO)

7 Recent Highlights Establishment of research priorities for the Strategic Plan MAP D-PHASE as part of the coordinated European Experiment The German COPS program Beijing 08 projects -- FDP (nowcasting) and RDP (mesoscale ensembles) TCS-08 (with T-PARC) leadership in the establishment of the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment Project Role in MERIT Support of major upcoming meetings (nowcasting, data assimilation and verification) and a long list of more minor ones

8 Weather Prediction is Relevant Nargis 0440 UTC May 1st Extreme Temperature 3.6% Flood 30% Slides 5% Drought 7% Wild Fires 3.5% Epidemic, famine, insects 14% Windstorm 25% Tsunami 0.39% Earthquake 9% Volcano 1.6% Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological decade 495

9 Predictability & Early Warning of Bacterial Menigitis? Do environmental factors control amplitude? Can we predict the return to humid conditions and the end of the epidemic? Sultan et al. 2005, IRD Can we predict the onset -- vegetative index, wind, dust, and dryness?

10 European Coordinated Experiments 2007 Convective and Orographicallyinduced Precipitation Study (COPS), ) Research and Development Project (RDP) Period: Wulfmeyer et al. BAMS 2008 General Observations Period (GOP) Period: full year of 2007 (Crewell et al. MetZet 2008, submitted) Transport and Chemical Conversion in Convective Systems (COPS-TRACKS) Period: Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Mobile Facility (AMF) Period: European THORPE Regional Campaign 2007 (ETReC 2007) Period: EUMETSAT special satellite operation modes and data Period: (Aoshima et al. MetZet 2008, accepted) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE), Forecast and Demonstration Project (FDP) Period: (Rotach et al. BAMS 2008, submitted) National July Academies 7-8, Board on the Nowcasting Atmospheric Working Sciences, Group November Meeting, Helsinki, 2008 Finland

11 D-PHASE End-to-End Forcast System 7 probabilistic and 23 high-resolution deterministic atmospheric models 7 coupled hydrological models (deterministic and probabilistic) National Academies -- Board on the Working Atmospheric Group on Sciences, Mesoscale November Weather 2008 Forecasting Research

12 D-PHASE/COPS Model Evaluation 7 km 2.2 km Windward/lee effect National Academies -- Board on the Working Atmospheric Group on Sciences, Mesoscale November Weather 2008 Forecasting Research

13 Fuzzy Verification (courtesy Mathias Rotach, Meteo Swiss) Verification on coarser scales than model scale: Do not require a point wise match! Method Raw Data Fuzzyfication Score Example result Average Upscaling x x Equitable threat score Fraction Skill Score (Roberts and Lean, 2005) x x Fractional coverage Skill score with reference to worst forecast D-PHASE WG MWF, 17/18 Maarch 2008Tokyo (J) Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) 13

14 Fuzzy Verification COSMO-2 COSMO-7 JJA 2007, Verification against Swiss Radar Composite, 3 hourly accumulations Fraction skill score Upscaling COSMO-2 (2.2km) - = COSMO-7 (7km) - = Difference Spatial scale (km) Spatial scale (km) Threshold (mm/3h) bad Threshold (mm/3h) good COSMO-7 better Threshold (mm/3h) COSMO-2 better D-PHASE WG MWF, 17/18 Maarch 2008Tokyo (J) Mathias Rotach (matias.rotach [at] meteoswiss.ch) 14

15 Accumulated Precipitation ( 04pm Aug.8 06am Aug. 9) National Stadium

16 Evolution of errors across timescales Temperature U wind ERA40 Climate THORPE 1-5 day day Seasonal Crown copyright system Met Office being upgraded to use same model

17 Future Trends Increased involvement with hydrology Increase activities with developing nations Meet future needs (high resolutions for urbanization of society, linking air quality predictions, ) Increased collaboration with climate on seasonal prediction (THORPE-led) Explore broader issue of efforts in high resolution prediction and links to THORPE