WMO. Early Warning System
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1 World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System Koji Kuroiwa Tropical Cyclone Programme World Meteorological Organization For (TBC) The 2nd Expert Group Meeting TC-42 on Singapore, the Great East January Japan 1 Earthquake, 2010 E.B December Manaenkova 2011, Tokyo / C. Blond
2 Outline of the Presentation Overview of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) and the Early Warning System Priority issues to be addressed New aspect of TCP - multi-hazard approach
3 Statistics of Natural Disasters Millions of casualties per decade 2.66 Geological Hydrometeorological decade Distribution ib ti of natural disaster Trends in disaster-related t d loss of life (World; ) (Five decades) (Source: EM-DAT, OFDA/CRED International a Disaster Database)
4 WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) is a scientific programme of WMO coordinating regional TC Early Warning Systems and TC Regional Committees. Its origin dates back to Primary objective is to help establish national and regionally coordinated systems to minimize the loss of life and property caused by tropical cyclones. Scope of activity embraces; - Meteorology - Hydrology - Disaster Risk Reduction
5 Global View of Tropical Cyclone Occurrences 26 (31%) 5 (7%) 17 (20%) 10 (12%) 10 (12%) 6 (8%) 9 (11%) Tropical cyclone tracks ( ) and regional TC frequency and its proportion (%) to the global ( ).
6 TC Regional Warning Centres and TC Regional Committees Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs; red), Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs; blue) and TC Regional Committees (No. of members in bracket)
7 Tropical Cyclone Warning Service Cascading Warning Process - Data from Global Observation System to TC Regional Centres and to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Centres; - NWP Centres to provide NWP products of TC track and intensity forecasts; - Regional Centres to make analyses & forecast and prepare regional advisories for NMCs; - NMCs to issue alerts, advisories and warnings and to liaise with Disaster Management Offices.
8 Tropical Cyclone Warning Service (cont d) Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System functions 24/7 primarily on a regional basis within the framework of TC Regional Committees. Rules and procedures are established by the regional operational plans maintained by the Committees (led by RSMCs). Early Warning Systems are improved as needed through the regional action plans developed by the Committees at ttheir annual/biennial sessions.
9 Challenging g Issues for TCP (1) Track forecast has been improved, while intensity forecast still is a serious challenge. Track Forecast Errors (RSMC Miami) i) Intensity Forecast Errors
10 Challenging g Issues for TCP (2) Most of the members of TC Regional Committees are developing countries and LDCs/SIDSs. Gap is widening between developing and developed countries. Needs to develop human resources and communication capacity Enhancement of capacity building activities From GTS to WIS (WMO s new communication infrastructure)
11 New Aspect of TCP Regional TC Committees with established 24/7 Early Warning System are now expected to serve as platforms for the warning systems also for other hazards. Tropical Cyclone Programme is now taking the multi- hazard approach and developing links with other WMO programmes and int l entities, including; WMO Storm Surge Watch Scheme - JCOMM (Joint Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology) Tsunami Early Warning Systems - IOC/ICG
12 New Aspect of TCP (cont d) Storm Surge Watch hscheme Actions were taken by all the TC Regional Bodies on the initiative of RSMCs. TCP and JCOMM jointly hold Storm Surge Workshop for the Members of the regions.
13 New Aspect of TCP (cont d) Tsunami Early Warning Systems Cooperative relationship has bee developed between TC Regional Committees and Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs). Panel on Tropical Cyclone and ICG for the Indian Ocean Tsunami iwarning and Mitigation i i System (ICG/IOTWS) Hurricane Committee and ICG for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean Sea and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE EWS)
14 Summary WMO Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System is established as a collaborative framework of TC Warning Centers and TC Regional Committees. Improvement of TC intensity forecast and upgrade of the warning capabilities of developing countries are major challenges. hll Tropical Cyclone Programme is entering a new phase through a multi-hazard approach.
15 WMO OMM World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Thank you for your attention
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