Canadian Hurricane Center: How NHC Products are used to issue Warnings and Communicate Hazards

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1 Canadian Hurricane Center: How NHC Products are used to issue Warnings and Communicate Hazards Bob Robichaud Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Canadian Hurricane Centre

2 Contents Brief background on the CHC Current CHC operations How we use the NHC Products CHC Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

3 Why does Canada have a Hurricane Center?

4 Tropical Cyclones in Canada Clearly tropical cyclones are a threat in Canada as well

5 Entire Atlantic vs. CHC Response Zone Based on the 30 year average, about 35% of the named storm that form in the Atlantic enter the CHC Response Zone

6 Operations at the Canadian Hurricane Centre NHC is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for the WMO RA-IV CHC provides Canadians with meteorological information on hurricanes, tropical storms and post-tropical storms

7 Operations at the Canadian Hurricane Center Canadian Hurricane Center Halifax, Nova Scotia Orlando Canadian Hurricane Center Atlantic Storm Prediction Center

8 Operations at the Canadian Hurricane Center Canadian Hurricane Center Halifax, Nova Scotia Orlando Canadian Hurricane Center Atlantic Storm Prediction Center

9 Operations at the Canadian Hurricane Centre Canadian Hurricane Centre Forecasters train at the National Hurricane Center in Miami In the past few years the East Coast Hurricane Awareness Tour has kicked off in Canada Monitor tropical activity throughout the Atlantic Ocean Storm-specific bulletins only issued on storms that are expected to have an impact on Canada or coastal waters

10 Our partners in Emergency Management.. Canadian Hurricane Centre Very close working relationship with emergency management officials Training and exercising Seasonal prep briefings Storm briefings during events Permanent presence with provincial emergency management

11 and our partners in the media Canadian Hurricane Centre Dedicated media room with direct plug-in facilities Seasonal forecast briefings Media workshops Special media technical briefings during actual events Media Technical Briefings

12 CHC Standard Products Tropical Cyclone Information Statements Tropical Cyclone Information Statements are designed for national public distribution using the media for mass dissemination. Tropical Cyclone Technical Information Statements Tropical Cyclone Technical Information Statements are targeted toward meteorologists and specialized clients who seek more detailed information about the forecast rationale and computer model discussions Canadian Tropical Cyclone Track Maps CHC provides tropical cyclone track information for storms impacting Canada. NHC tracks are also displayed on the same map Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings

13 CHC Standard Products Tropical Cyclone Track Map - Tracks for all storms are displayed on the CHC hurricane track map - Blue tracks are CHCissued tracks - Red tracks are NHCissued tracks

14 CHC Standard Products Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings Once the storm is close enough and forecast confidence is higher watches and warnings are issued in addition to the information bulletins Tropical Storm: winds 39 to 73 mph Hurricane: winds 74 mph or more A Watch: wind conditions possible within 36 hours A Warning: wind conditions expected within 24 hours.

15 Issue Times CHC Advisory Package NHC Public Advisory NHC TC Forecast Advisory Forecast Discussion 2 am ET 5 am EDT 5 am EDT 5 am EDT 8 am ET 11 am EDT 11 am EDT 11 am EDT 2 pm ET 5 pm EDT 5 pm EDT 5 pm EDT 8 am ET 11 pm EDT 11 pm EDT 11 pm EDT CHC NHC

16 Use of NHC Products Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Monitored daily by the CHC Daily weather outlooks (text bulletins) are prepared based on the GTWO Emergency managers are also instructed to monitor the GTWO as part of their daily routine Probability of Categories formation Low < 40% Medium 40-60% High >60%

17 Use of NHC Products Track Forecast CHC uses NHC track forecast to populate the track map for storms not expected to enter the CHC RZ within 72 hours When the CHC begins issuing track forecasts and information statements, we always start by importing the NHC track Canadian Government Operations Centre will use NHC track forecasts in their special briefings

18 Use of NHC Products Forecast Discussion CRITICAL to both CHC forecasters and Warning Preparedness Meteorologists Used to evaluate the rationale behind the analysis and forecast Provides continuous insight on what is happening with the storm Key Messages provide a valuable tool to develop media sounds thus providing a consistent message

19 Use of NHC Products Surface Wind Probability Maps NHC Wind Probability Maps are used as a key briefing tool for emergency managers Great example was Arthur in 2014 probability of hurricane force winds were increasing over parts of Nova Scotia (75 knot gusts were reported) Wind Arrival Time will also be a critical tool to be used next time a tropical cyclone approaches Probability of Hurricaneforce winds T-48 hours Arthur 2014 Probability of Hurricaneforce winds T-24 hours Arthur 2014

20 Hurricane Weather Products

21 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Catalyst for this approach was Hurricane Juan in 2003 Worst hurricane to hit Halifax since 1893 Peak wind gust of 110 mph Only 4th Cat.2 hurricane to hit NS since 1800s (last one was Ginny in 1963) Only 2nd hurricane to hit PEI since 1930s

22 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

23 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

24 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

25 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

26 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

27 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

28 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

29 Tropical and Hurricane Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

30 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts

31 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Hurricane Juan Impacts Canadian Hurricane Center

32 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings The CHC collaborated with a social scientist to examine the public s reaction the storm s warnings The main goal was to investigate risk perception and awareness of Hurricane Juan and evaluate how they influenced action 84% of respondents indicated they had heard that a hurricane was approaching prior to landfall 33% of respondents did not believe the storm warnings 36% of respondents do not believe they were adequately warned 31% of participants took no action to prepare for Juan Quote: You told us a hurricane was coming, you just didn t emphasize it enough! As a result of the reaction or lack thereof to Hurricane Juan, the CHC instituted the use of TS and Hurricane Watches and Warnings in 2004

33 Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings

34 Thank You! Comments/Questions Bob Robichaud Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Canadian Hurricane Center Tel:

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