WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Operational weather forecast product delivery relevant to SDSWS

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1 WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Operational weather forecast product delivery relevant to SDSWS Peter Chen World Weather Watch Department, WMO WMO/GEO Expert Meeting for an International Sand and Dust Storm Warning System Barcelona, Spain 7-9 November 2007 WMO Members, leveraging Science and Technology to contribute to the safety and well-being of people throughout the world 1

2 Outline Lessons learned in operational weather forecast product delivery relevant to SDSWS Background on WWW/GDPFS Understanding needs of operational users Operational Framework Science and technology for services Lessons learned - examples WMO Members, leveraging Science and Technology to contribute to the safety and well-being of people throughout the world 2

3 The World Weather Watch System An operational infrastructure The World Weather Watch System combines: observing systems, Telecommunication, data and information exchange facilities, and data-processing and forecasting Operated by Members, coordinated through the WMO Secretariat To make available meteorological and related geophysical information needed by Members for providing efficient services 3

4 The Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) of the WWW Makes available to WMO Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions to enable them to provide high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services. Outputs of the NWP Systems technology, including for environmental emergency response GDPFS supports many WMO programmes and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, IAEA, CTBTO. (see: Manual on the GDPFS ) 4

5 World Weather Watch S&T into operational services <= Integrated Observing System <= Global Telecom & Data Management <= Global Data- Processing and Forecasting System <= National Meteorological Services providing services to public and users 5

6 GDPFS CENTRES + National Meteorological Centres 6

7 Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Highlights (2007) Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project Cascading forecasting process: Global products centres => RSMCs => National Centres First regional subproject, heavy rain and strong winds in Southeastern Africa, commenced Nov Collaborative Exploitation of Ensemble System Products Enhancing availability, use and applications, in probabilistic forecasting, e.g. for severe weather; Multi-model ensemble applications Long-range Forecasting (seasonal forecasts) Global Producing Centres => Regional => National Centres Fixed production cycles and products Nuclear Environmental Emergency Response Arrangements Maintain 24/7/365 operational commitment of designated RSMCs in coordination with International Organizations (IAEA, ICAO, CTBTO, UN- OCHA, WHO) Extend to non-nuclear applications eg, volcanic ash, forest fire smoke, spills 7

8 Understanding the needs of operational users of SDSWS (1) Motivation of users? Immediate safety and security of population Safe operations Avoid or mitigate chronic to acute health impacts Economic advantage Public versus other users Engage the community of users! 8

9 Understanding the needs of operational users of SDSWS (2) Users needs? thresholds impacts Which parameters, diagnostics, charts? Lead-time (forecast, advisory, warning) Acceptible POD and FAR Daily or episodic Public versus others SDSWS focusing on critical thresholds Are there some quantitative thresholds, e.g. protective actions for public? 9

10 Implementing an essential operational framework for warnings (1) Desirable features? 24/7/365 operationally supported infrastructure (e.g. at NMCs, RSMCs) Highly automated and robust production with backup, and recovery system Meteorological expertise Regional structure (e.g. multi-national and regional centres) for collaboration, harmonization, operational advantage Authoritative sources of information 10

11 Implementing an essential operational framework for warnings (2) Products and services? Guidance, warnings Dissemination means Defined: Geographical coverage (national, regional) Product suite, charts, fields, parameters, thresholds, bulletins, etc. Routine and/or episodic products Production and delivery schedules Online user guide, references, illustrative case-studies 11

12 Implementing an essential operational framework for warnings (3) Maintaining and improving? Technology transfer mechanism for new scientific results or technical advances from R&D to Operations Establish objective measures of quality, especially for important thresholds Users feedback to R&D Clear authority for operational implementation Users are informed 12

13 Science and Technological basis for operational services Challenges? Good enough? Source modelling (erosion and suspension) Ensemble approach comparison of results from several centres? Probabilistic products? Assimilation of observed aerosol concentrations Forecast system tools data display, animation, visualization, etc. Improving atmospheric transport and dispersion modelling Improving NWP (radiative forcing, in-cloud processes)? 13

14 Some examples from WWW/GDPFS Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) Nuclear Emergency Response Airborne Volcanic Ash 14

15 SWFDP s Cascading principle: Special products from Global centres to RSMC-Pretoria RSMC prepares guidance forecasts for next 5 days and disseminates daily to 5 NMCs NMCs use guidance forecast in preparing warnings when appropriate to civil protection authorities UKMO ECMWF US NWS NMC NMC NMC NMC NMC RSMC RSMC 15

16 16

17 Highly processed Guidance Products from RSMC-Pretoria to NMCs available on a special RSMC-Pretoria website 17

18 short-range daily guidance 18

19 Medium-range daily guidance 19

20 WMO Emergency Response Activities Nuclear emergency response Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Multi-Hazard early warning concept of operations Numerical simulation of atmospheric transport and dispersion - modelling technology to support environmental emergency response; Dependent on, integrated with operational NWP system infrastructure at NWP centres; 24/7/365 operational commitment of designated regional specialized meteorological centres, RSMC ; Operational standards, procedures; Regular exercise and testing; Coordination with International Organizations. 20

21 Services from WMO Emergency Response Activities Nuclear enviromental emergency response A service for NMHSs and IAEA; Coordination with IAEA (the authority); 8 WMO RSMCs with established operational procedures and arrangements in place for request/reply, to assist NHMSs, and IAEA; Operational telecom hub (RTH) linked to IAEA; Standard products based on users requirements. 21

22 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre for Nuclear Emergency designated by the World Meteorological Organization RSMCs Montréal and Washington (Regions III, IV and V) RSMCs Exeter and Toulouse (Regions I and VI) RSMCs Beijing, Obninsk and Tokyo (Region II) RSMC Melbourne (Region V, jointly with RSMCs Montréal and Washington) IV VI II III I V

23 RSMCs Transport Model Products Mirrored Password-Protected Web Pages 23

24 JOINT WEB PAGE DEPOSITION INTERCOMPARISON September 2004 Monthly Test - RSMCs Melbourne, Montreal and Washington 24 December 2004

25 VOLCANIC ASH GUIDANCE Sample Product (Melbourne VAAC) 25 December 2004

26 CAN SDS BE PREDICTED? SDS models to provide SDS predictions Models mainly developed by research organizations; currently ~10 operational, but not coordinated There is no established system to deliver SDS warnings to users (e.g. aviation) (From SN Mar 2007)

27 WMO SAND AND DUST WARNING SYSTEM PROJECT A response to interest of more than 40 WMO members to use SDS forecasts To develop a real-time system of delivering products will be developed To integrate communities of observations, research operational modeling and users Three SDS WS centres have been designated for the regions North Africa/Europe/Middle East (Hosted by Spain) East Asia/Pacific (Hosted by China) North America (Hosted by Canada) (From SN Mar 2007) WMO Members interested to participate SDS WS project

28 WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System Operational weather forecast product delivery relevant to SDSWS Thank You! Peter Chen Chief, Data-Processing and Forecasting System Division World Weather Watch Department, WMO +(41 22) (41 22) (fax) 28

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