Convection Nowcasting Products Available at the Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) Ranges

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Silas Blake
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Boulder, CO with contributions from: Wiebke Deierling, Dan Megenhardt, Sue Dettling,

1 Convection Nowcasting Products Available at the Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) Ranges Cathy Kessinger National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO with contributions from: Wiebke Deierling, Dan Megenhardt, Sue Dettling, Eric Nelson, Matthias Steiner Paper th Aviation, range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference 1

Redstone Test Center, AL Cold Regions Test Center, AK Electronic Proving Ground, AZ White

2 Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) Ranges Yuma Proving Ground, AZ Dugway Proving Ground, UT Aberdeen Test Center, MD Night Vision and Electronic Sensor Directorate, VA Redstone Test Center, AL Cold Regions Test Center, AK Electronic Proving Ground, AZ White Sands Missile Range, NM 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 2

3 Range Forecast Challenges Each range has a staff of meteorologists to deal with specific forecast challenges. Forecaster duties include: Tactical Support 0-1 hr: Warn of potentially hazardous thunderstorms/lightning throughout region Ensure personnel safety Protect expensive test equipment and materiél During test operations, provide guidance on weather conditions Strategic Support >1 hr: Before test operations, provide guidance on expected weather conditions Advise range customers about test scheduling, up to months in advance NCAR provides tools for thunderstorm and lightning nowcasting AutoNowcaster (ANC): 30, 60 min initiation, extrapolation, growth/decay AutoNowcaster-Lite (AN-Lite): 30, 60 min extrapolation only Both ANC and AN-Lite can add modular components for specialized tasks Trident, tactical predictions of heavy rain potential Lightning, tactical and strategic predictions of lighting occurrence 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 3

4 Trident An Algorithm for Predicting Heavy Rain Potential 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 4

Trident for Heavy Rain Potential Flash floods are safety concern at some ranges, especially in remote locations Trident is not a flash-flood prediction per se but gives a heads-up to the forecaster

5 Trident for Heavy Rain Potential Flash floods are safety concern at some ranges, especially in remote locations Trident is not a flash-flood prediction per se but gives a heads-up to the forecaster where significant rainfall may be occurring Trident algorithm makes nowcasts of radar-derived precipitation accum. Predictions at 10 min intervals to 1 hr Z-R relation (upgrade to dual-pol QPE underway) Rain gauge data not used for calibration Composite Reflectivity 6 July 2014, 0000 UTC Key it to a map file (such as drainage basins) with appropriate thresholds to give visual warnings Yuma Proving Ground 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 5

6 Trident for Heavy Rain Potential Flash floods are safety concern at some ranges, especially in remote locations Trident is not a flash-flood prediction per se but gives a heads-up to the forecaster where significant rainfall may be occurring Trident algorithm makes nowcasts of radar-derived precipitation accum. Predictions at 10 min intervals to 1 hr Z-R relation (upgrade to dual-pol QPE underway) Rain gauge data not used for calibration Composite Reflectivity 6 July 2014, 0050 UTC Key it to a map file (such as drainage basins) with appropriate thresholds to give visual warnings Yuma Proving Ground 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 6

7 Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map Yuma Proving Ground >130mm mm PrecipAccum FX 10 min 30-50mm Can also add a 2, 3, 4 hr accumulation to current prediction for turning on the PrecipAccum Warning Map 1-30mm <1mm PrecipAccum Warning Map 0050 generate time; 0100 valid time 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 7

Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 20 min 50-130mm 30-50mm 1-30mm <1mm PrecipAccum

8 Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 20 min mm 30-50mm 1-30mm <1mm PrecipAccum Warning Map 0050 generate time; 0110 valid time 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 8

9 Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 30 min mm 30-50mm 1-30mm <1mm PrecipAccum Warning Map 0050 generate time; 0120 valid time 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 9

10 Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 40 min mm 30-50mm 1-30mm <1mm PrecipAccum Warning Map 0050 generate time; 0130 valid time 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 10

11 Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 50 min mm 30-50mm 1-30mm <1mm PrecipAccum Warning Map 0050 generate time; 0140 valid time 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 11

Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 60 min Forecasters are very pleased with Trident and say it is the best algorithm that they have used so far.

12 Fx Precip Accumulations + Precip Accum Warning Map >130mm PrecipAccum FX 60 min Forecasters are very pleased with Trident and say it is the best algorithm that they have used so far mm 30-50mm 1-30mm <1mm Limited experience, 1-2 storms, so we will continue to monitor its performance. PrecipAccum Warning Map 0050 generate time; 0150 valid time 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 12

13 Lightning Monitoring and Nowcasting 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 13

Lightning Monitoring and Nowcasting Capability History: Developed for ATEC ranges 1 Recent upgrade completed for airport ramp operations Captures lightning threats from: Thunderstorm cores and anvil

14 Lightning Monitoring and Nowcasting Capability History: Developed for ATEC ranges 1 Recent upgrade completed for airport ramp operations Captures lightning threats from: Thunderstorm cores and anvil Early stages of storm (initiation) Late stages of storm (anvil) Thundersnow Monitor thunderstorms with: Radar and lightning data Organization, 3D vertical structure, trends and evolution Apply fuzzy logic membership functions to lightning predictors Pick/tune several thresholds: Anvil lightning has a lower probability threshold Core lightning has a higher probability threshold Communication of warnings Lightning Potential Interest LMA Flash Extent Lightning indicator circle turns on when threshold is reached Lightning Nowcast Anvil Lightning Nowcast 14 1 Saxen et al Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 14

Example of Lightning Initiation - WSMR Updated Lightning Potential High

~15 min leadtime 10 June 2013 20:05 UTC 4 April 2014 9:30 UTC 10 June 2013

Updated Lightning Potential Updated Lightning Potential Updated Lightning

15 Example of Lightning Initiation - WSMR Updated Lightning Potential High lightning potential threshold ~5 min leadtime Low lightning potential threshold ~15 min leadtime 10 June :05 UTC 4 April :30 UTC 10 June :20 UTC 10 June :30 UTC Lightning First LMA Lightning indicator circle Updated Lightning Potential Updated Lightning Potential Updated Lightning Potential 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 15

16 Strategic Lightning Prediction 4DWX model (domain 3) analysis and forecast fields utilized Deployed at WSMR since 2009, at RTC in 2011 Microphysical and dynamical results from model output used to predict lightning potential to hours (range dependent) Fuzzy logic framework used to estimate lightning potential Predictor fields are ice water path and updraft volume Forecasters use the results as guidance 4DWX at Redstone Test Range 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 16

17 Strategic Lightning Prediction 4DWX model (domain 3) analysis and forecast fields utilized Deployed at WSMR since 2009, at RTC in 2011 Microphysical and dynamical results from model output used to predict lightning potential to hours (range dependent) Fuzzy logic framework used to estimate lightning potential Predictor fields are ice water path and updraft volume Forecasters use the results as guidance 4DWX at Redstone Test Range CSI score of the lightning potential forecast at WSMR for summer months. Deierling et al. (2009) 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 17

18 Summary ATEC forecast challenges from thunderstorms and lightning are being addressed by the NCAR ANC and AN-Lite systems Trident is a new algorithm for the ranges; deployed at YPG last fall Performance looks good (limited to a few storms), continue to test/monitor Upgrade to use dual polarization QPE is underway Lightning potential for tactical prediction (i.e., radar-based) has been recently upgraded and an increase in performance realized Recently deployed at WSMR and RTC; no forecaster feedback yet Lightning potential for strategic prediction (i.e., 4DWX-based) Plan to deploy at other ranges, where needed Thank you! 5-8 Jan th Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology Conference, Phoenix AZ 18

Auto-Nowcast System Tom Saxen (July) Huaqing Cai (Aug) National Center for Atmospheric Research

Auto-Nowcast System Tom Saxen (July) Huaqing Cai (Aug) National Center for Atmospheric Research Summer 2006 ATEC Forecaster Conference Photo courtesy of Greg Thompson Overview: Introductory comments on