An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast Center

Transcription

1 National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast Center

2 National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center Introduction to NWS Hydrologic Services Overview of HAS Operations Overview of Hydrologic Operations Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting Advances in Science and Technology

3 National Weather Service West Structure Gulf River of the Forecast NWS Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association National Weather Service WGRFC (13 RFC s) Weather Forecast Offices (120+)

4 National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center 13 Offices (12 CONUS + 1 Alaska/Pacific) Hydro-geologic boundaries Some modeling of headwaters in Canada/Mexico (no forecast services) Daily Operations Data collection and quality control Precipitation and Hydrologic Forecasts Research Activities New technologies New products

5 National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center Snowpack Water supply Prolonged river flooding Complex reservoir operations 402,000 mi 2 total area 87,000 mi 2 in MX (Rio Grande tributaries) 320 forecast points, 15 major river systems Rocky terrain Flash flood threats Rapid river responses Tropical threats Storm surges Coastal flooding

6 National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center WGRFC Hours of Operation Normal Hours 6:00 a.m. 10:00 p.m. Routine Staffing HAS (6:00 a.m. 2:00 p.m.) Hydro (7:30 a.m. 3:30 p.m.) Evening (2:00 p.m. 10:00 p.m.) Hybrid of HAS and Hydro duties Development Shift (8:00 a.m. 4:30 p.m.) Assist in operations as needed Additional Staffing Requirements Event driven and/or in coordination with WFOs and customers Overnight Shift scheduled for prolonged rainfall/flooding events

7 Forecast Process HAS Operations Rainfall Data & Forecasts Hydrologic Operations River Data & Forecasts Precipitation estimates and forecasts merged into continuous dataset Precipitation dataset ingested into hydrologic model. Forecasters adjust model parameters in real time River forecast issued to public

8 Collaborative Efforts Support for emergency responders National and regional partnerships Remote briefings and staff deployments Video teleconference between National Hurricane Center and Federal Agencies Briefing between NWS and partners

9 HAS Operations HAS = Hydrometeorological Analysis and Support 3 forecasters at each River Forecast Center (RFC) Create precipitation datasets Best Estimate of past precipitation (QPE) Derived with MPE Forecast of future precipitation (QPF) Create temperature datasets Temperature Data Sets not utilized at every RFC Support activities Data Quality Control Text and graphical information products Coordination with NWS offices and public partners Weather discussions and briefings

10 What is MPE? (produces QPE) Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator Inputs Radar Gauges Satellite Final multi-sensor precipitation product is better than any single sensor. Goals Reduce spatial inaccuracies and bias errors in rainfall datasets Produce a quality precipitation dataset for ingest into National Weather Service (NWS) hydrologic models

11 Precipitation Best Estimate Radar 4km x 4km spatial resolution 1 hour temporal resolution Human quality control of data inputs Gauge Satellite Satellite Best Estimate (Multisensor Field)

12 Precipitation Forecast/QPF 4 km x 4 km spatial resolution 6 hour temporal resolution 72 hours (12 periods) processed RFCs ingest 6-24 hours (1-4 periods) operationally in hydrologic models Additional periods ingested based on confidence in forecast Guidance forecast issued by National Center Forecaster at RFC makes adjustments based on local expertise

13 Support Activities Public Products Text and graphical COMET International HydroMet Coordination and briefings Internal and external partners

14 Hydrologic Operations 9 to 14 Hydrologic Forecasters at each River Forecast Center (RFC) Create River Forecasts Forecasters apply local expertise to adjust model output Development work Calibrate hydrologic model Model new basins and forecast points Develop new operational techniques and procedures

15 River Forecasts Model simulates physical processes Conceptual models used to simulate physical processes on soil column Extensive initial calibration of model parameters Forecasters use interactive program to adjust model parameters in real time Simulation Observed Forecasters adjust model parameters in real time Simulation better predictor of observed data

16 Enhancements to existing model and techniques Model Calibration Adjustment of Model Parameters Research and Development projects New Modeling Techniques Probabilistic Forecasting Forecast Verification Collaboration with partners and customers Flood Briefings Hydrologic Discussions Web Products and Services

17 Calibration Improved model performance Distributed Modeling Increased resolution of model parameters and precipitation inputs Forecast possible at any grid location Hydraulic Modeling Improved routing in complex environments Integral in Flood Inundation Mapping Dam Break Modeling Research projects with internal and external partners Interactive Calibration Program

18 Hydrologic Operations Duties Duties River Forecasting (morning package) Run models after precipitation input is available Issue any criteria forecasts Issue daily forecasts Monitor Rivers/Forecasts throughout shift Update/Issue criteria forecasts as needed Hydrologic data quality control Weekly recreation forecast Development work to infuse new science and technological advances

19 Hydrologic Forecast Process A lot of estimates Estimate how much rain gets into the river Rainfall to Runoff Estimate timing (how fast) of runoff to the river gage Unit Hydrograph Estimate how fast any upstream water arrives at the gage Routing Estimate water flow (we use) into water height (the public uses) Rating We can modify any/all of the above

20 Rainfall and Runoff Rainfall change 6 Hour (Mean Areal) Runoff change 6 hour

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22 The Unit Hydrograph This UHG is for Sandy Creek near Cordele, part of the Lavaca/Navidad River system

23 Routing Gage Height Time

24 The Result Our Model

25 Rating Curve - Flow vs Height

26 Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service National multi-year project Smaller scale modeling for fast responding basins (cooperative project with local offices) Probabilistic Forecasts Inundation Mapping

27 Flash Flood Guidance Flash Flood Guidance New gridded methodology Increased resolution Increased responsiveness New methodology for Flash Flood Guidance

28 Ensemble Modeling Ensemble Models Produces long-term probabilistic forecasts Utilizes historical precipitation inputs Current soil moisture conditions Creates simulations based on each year of historical precipitation (ensembles) Performs statistical analysis Probabilistic Forecasts Ensemble Simulations

29 Flood Inundation Utilizes high resolution Digital Elevation Maps (DEM) Utilizes hydraulics modeling at numerous river cross sections Model output fed into Geographical Information System(GIS) for map display

30 Water Supply Modeling Input various real-time data Snow Depth Snow Water Equivalent Use of Regression Equations to determine seasonal volume forecasts Remote-sensed SWE SNOTEL site

31 National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center Questions? Thank You Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist WGRFC