LMRFC is one of 13 NWS RFCs. There are 4 RFCs within the Southern Region of the NWS. Southern Region HQ is located in Fort Worth, TX

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1 LMRFC is one of 13 NWS RFCs There are 4 RFCs within the Southern Region of the NWS. Southern Region HQ is located in Fort Worth, TX The LMRFC hydrologic forecasting program provides hydrologic guidance and forecasts to 18 NWS Weather Forecast Offices and federal partners responsible for safety of persons and commerce on the lower reach of the Mississippi River and its tributaries

2 Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) Slidell, LA

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4 Opportunities for Collaboration With NGI Partners 1) Flexible Scientific Workforce and Expertise Project Driven Diverse Time Scales (6 months (Intern) to two years (Post Doc or Visiting Scientist ) Ability to infuse interdisciplinary talent pool 2) Computing Infrastructure Protoyping Develop accurate depiction of resources to help with transition from research to operations 3) Help facilitate reimbursible funding agreements

5 LMRFC Hydrologic Services and Products Rainfall Processing QA/QC of antecedent rainfall (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE)) Production of gridded precipitation data for future rainfall River Forecasts 5 day forecasts for all tributaries and mainstem of the Mississippi River downstream of Cairo, IL 28 day forecasts produced for mainstem of the lower Mississippi River for long range guidance Flash Flood Guidance Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) Slidell, LA Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) Slidell, LA

6 Hydrologic Services Gap Prototype Routine Total Water Level Prediction Capabilities Leverage NWS marine DSS pilot program at WFO New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LMRFC hydrologic guidance responsibilities, and new CHPS framework capabilities

7 1. New Orleans 354, Baton Rouge Metairie 145, Lafayette 114, Lake Charles 71, Kenner 67, Marrero 33, New Iberia 32, Houma 32, LaPlace 32, Slidell 27, Baker/Zachary 26, Terrytown 24, Hammond 19,899 New Orleans Metro 2012 population 514,495

8 City 2012 Population 1. Jackson 173, Gulfport 67, Biloxi 44, Pascagoula

9 Bring NC total water level prediction system (CI-FLOW) to LMRFC coastal basins to expand hydrologic guidance capabilities BAMS- November 2011

10 CI-FLOW has established 1) A framework to seamlessly exchange information across multiple organizations & disparate computing infrastructures 2) A completely automated system that routinely produces total water level simulations from the headwaters of the Tar-Pamlico & Neuse Rivers to the Pamlico Sound NAM or NHC Best Track ADCIRC+SWAN

11 ADCIRC + SWAN Grid Elements 18 miles

12 Obstacles and Identified CI-FLOW Gaps Must have dedicated supercomputing support for ADCIRC+SWAN runs Accurate determination of handoff points to exchange information from HL-RDHM to ADCIRC+SWAN Significant effort to map ADCIRC+SWAN grids up coastal rivers and tributaries to the handoff point with the river model (i.e. HL-RDHM); Need accurate elevation data set Significant effort required to refine ADCIRC+SWAN nodes to capture significant coastal features and significant forecast locations Deterministic output for ADCIRC+SWAN simulations due to model run time which increases risk if NHC forecast or NWP model guidance has large errors

13 CHPS Forecasting Framework: Ensembles Opportunities Allows for multiple models including HEC-RAS Expand coastal forecasting toolbox beyond SLOSH, ET-SURGE, EST-OFS etc. NWS operations includes HL-RDHM, HEC-RAS, and NOAA nowcoast and is now transitioning to NOAA operations NSSL Q2 and ADCIRC+SWAN (coarse grid) so the CI-FLOW elements are in the NWS operational framework Researchers are investigating methods to nest ADCIRC+SWAN high-resolution grid to reduce run time to facilitate multiple model runs ADCIRC storm atlas is being investigated to build library of storm effects to create a GUI similar to SLOSH Provides a year-around prediction system not just tropical season

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