Real-Time Flood Forecasting Modeling in Nashville, TN utilizing HEC-RTS

Transcription

1 Real-Time Flood Forecasting Modeling in Nashville, TN utilizing HEC-RTS Brantley Thames, P.E. Hydraulic Engineer, Water Resources Section Nashville District, USACE August 24, 2017 US Army Corps of Engineers

2 Post May 2010 Flood Efforts May 2010 flood resulted in a major shift in focus Immediately started working with Nashville and other federal agencies Building models to better understand flood risk USGS added stream gauges further up in watersheds Created the Nashville SAFE program to better understand NWS forecasts Performed hundreds of miles of updates to flood insurance rate maps in coordination with FEMA

3 Real Time Simulation (HEC-RTS) What is HEC-RTS? Real-time decision support system Relies on suite of HEC software (HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, etc.) Provides a real-time flood forecasting environment integrating HEC software Utilizes python scripts to import real-time data from the internet Utilizes python scripts to publish and disseminate results to necessary stakeholders

4 Why is it important? LIFE SAFETY Time matters Flood Forecasting Risk is related to the relationship between the size of the basin and the size of the storm The development of these HEC-RTS models leverages all of the efforts since the May 2010 event into a tool that can save lives 26 fatalities in May 2010 event 11 in Nashville alone all in tributaries to the Cumberland River

5 Real Time Simulation (HEC-RTS) Who is the suite of Nashville HEC-RTS models intended for? Modelers National Weather Service (NWS) Metro-Nashville Staff USACE Beneficiaries Metro emergency services NWS forecasters Public

6 History of HEC-RTS Water Management Forecasting in the Corps Historically, every District for themselves each Corps district did something different Circa 2000 the Corps Water Management System (CWMS) was developed November 2015 CWMS 3.0 was officially released HEC-RTS 3.0 was also released RTS and CWMS are the same software Difference is where the input data comes from

7 External Data from Web Precipitation Flow Stage HEC-RTS Structure HEC-HMS External Data from Web NWS QPF Observed Data HEC-RAS Results Temporary forecast.dss Central DSS DB Inundation Mapping HEC-FIA Data Dissemination Overall Results

8 HEC-RTS Watersheds

9 Real Time Simulation (HEC-RTS) Composed of 4 Modules Setup Models imported Program order (MFP HMS RAS) Data Setup Acquisition Data QC Visualization Visualize data and make initial forecasting decisions Modeling Where all the magic happens Create forecasts and execute individual modeling components

10 CAVI Tour

11 Setup

12 Data Acquisition

13 Data Visualization

14 Modeling

15 Modeling

16 Modeling - Precipitation

17 Modeling - Hydrology

18 Modeling - Hydraulics

19 Models are great Data Dissemination But if the results can t be communicated to the necessary people; they re WORTHLESS! Still under construction Currently looking at two sources of dissemination: Metro Linkages to the Nashville SAFE program NWS Idea is to leave the forecasting to the experts. Already have the dissemination tools in place

20 Nashville SAFE Output Tool Summary

21 Nashville SAFE Output Tool Forecast Point

22 DEMO

23 Next Steps Develop processes and outputs that will provide the most useful information to the necessary decision makers and emergency personnel in the Nashville Government Build a Cheatham Pool HEC-RTS Model to provide the ability to model the entire Nashville area as opposed to a basin-by-basin approach Incorporate HEC-FIA to provide real-time structure by structure damages and population at risk

24 Conclusions HEC-RTS provides an integrated environment to conduct flood forecasting using detailed H&H modeling software developed by HEC Interface is relatively user-friendly and provides direct access to H&H software packages many modelers are familiar with Ability to create output products useful to emergency person is only limited by our imagination The speed at which information and warnings can be distributed can save lives and property Once completed and implemented, the Nashville HEC-RTS system will be one of the most advanced systems nationally