NORTH ATLANTIC COAST COMPREHENSIVE STUDY (NACCS) STORM MODELING AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR

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1 NORTH ATLANTIC COAST COMPREHENSIVE STUDY (NACCS) STORM MODELING AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR COMPUTING COASTAL HAZARDS Mary Cialone Coastal & Hydraulics Laboratory Engineer Research & Development Center US Army Corps of Engineers Lessons Learned and Best Practices: Resilience of Coastal Infrastructure College of Engineers and Surveyors; Hato Rey, Puerto Rico 8-9 March 2017 The views, opinions and findings contained in this report are those of the authors(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.

2 After Hurricane Sandy Address flood hazard of vulnerable coastal populations Develop a risk-reduction framework consistent with U.S. Government (USACE/NOAA) Rebuilding Principles

3 NACCS Goals Develop a method to quantify resilience of coastal _communities Promote coastal resilient communities with sustainable _and robust coastal landscape systems, considering future sea level rise and climate change scenarios, to reduce risk to vulnerable population, property, ecosystems, and infrastructure

4 NACCS Numerical Modeling & Statistical Analysis Goal Provide modeling results and compute statistics of coastal storm forcing parameters for the entire North Atlantic Coast

5 ADCIRC CSTORM-MS High Fidelity Modeling WAM STWAVE CSTORM-MS: Coastal STORM Modeling System WAM: WAve Prediction Model STWAVE: STeady-State Spectral WAVE model ADCIRC: ADvance CIRCulation Model

6 Storm Selection Historical Storms applied to extratropical events 23 NOAA water level gauges 30-yr record or more Peak-over-threshold 100 storms selected Composite Storm Set method (define/identify) (Nadal-Caraballo & Melby 2014) Synthetic Storms applied to tropical events Radius to maximum winds Central pressure Forward speed Track Landfall location 1050 storms Observation Screening Process

7 NACCS Storm Suite Historical Extratropical Storms 1050 Synthetic Tropical Storms 1150 Total Storm Population Model Simulations: 1150 Storms x 3 conditions: Surge and wave only (base) Surge and wave and tide Surge and wave and tide and sea level change Total Storms simulated: 3450

8 HPC Resources: 3450 Simulations Department of Defense Supercomputing Resource Centers (DSRCs) 8 USACE Air Force Navy Garnet: Cray XE compute nodes 32 cores/node processors Spirit: SGI Ice X 4590 compute nodes 16 cores/node processors Armstrong: Cray XC compute nodes 24 cores/node processors 100M CPU hours Largest CW project 40% Garnet and 60% Armstrong 8-month time frame

9 CSTORM Production System CHALLENGE: ORGANIZE MANY STORMS, RESOURCES, COMPUTATIONAL NODES, GRIDS 9 The CSTORM Production System (CSTORM-PS) makes use of standard Linux/Unix tools (scripting) and open source software (Python) The production system allows for Rapid preparation of necessary input files for individual CSTORM-MS production runs (Reduces chances for human error) Execution of the simulation Execution of the CSTORM Visualization and Report tool Efficient file storage and archival The production system is general enough for use in future projects Setup Simulation Prep ADCIRC for Parallel Execute CSTORM Visualize & Stats Compress Outputs Tar Results Together Archive Results

10 Statistics and Coastal Hazards System State-of-the-Art Statistical Methodology Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling ( JPM-OS) USACE Guidance documents FEMA Flood mapping NRC Regulatory documents CHS Web-Based Tool

11 Model results waves, water levels, water velocities, wind and pressures at ~19000 virtual gage locations as well as regionally Statistics Data Products 1/3 serve the coastal engineering and management communities 10+ years Coastal Hazards System 11

12 Data Products 2/3 serve the coastal engineering and management communities 10+ years Model results waves, water levels, water velocities, wind and pressures at ~19000 virtual gage locations as well as regionally Statistics joint probability of storm response 12 Coastal Hazards System Graphical Tabular locations

13 Data Products 3/3 13 serve the coastal engineering and management communities 10+ years Model results waves, water levels, water velocities, wind and pressures at ~19000 virtual gage locations as well as regionally Statistics joint probability of storm response Coastal Hazards System - web-based software Improved method of delivery of information; well-vetted; QA/QC; available

14 Economies of Scale 1/3 14 spatial extent/quantity of reusable data from regional model Regional model detailed resolution from Virginia to Maine; efficiently perform sims - 5 Districts; consistent transitions/no disjoints/ continuum of data Reusable data Available to others Jones Inlet, NY

15 Economies of Scale 2/3 spatial extent/quantity of reusable data from regional model Regional model detailed resolution from Virginia to Maine 15 Reusable data new project decisions; input conditions for fine scale modeling Available to others Model Results & Statistics easily accessible

16 Projects: Using NACCS Data New York District Hashamomuck Rockaway 16 Philadelphia District Delaware Dredged Material Utilization New Jersey Dredged Material Utilization New Jersey Back Bay Study surge barriers Baltimore District Potomac River near DC Norfolk District (contractors) Norfolk, VA

17 Economies of Scale 3/3 spatial extent/quantity of reusable data from regional model Regional model detailed resolution from Virginia to Maine 17 Reusable data new project decisions; input conditions for fine scale modeling Available to others Coastal Hazards System accessible to Corps, Federal/State Partners, Coastal Community On-line Help On-line Tutorials Users Guide

18 Relevance 18 technical advancements post-katrina; enterprise modeling and analysis methods; USACE engineering guidance update CSTORM-MS high-resolution, highly-skilled physics-based models in a tightly-integrated modeling system; computational leaps in HPC Statistical analysis methodology Incorporated into Corps guidance Advancements Physical representation of land features Frictional resistance Wetting/Drying Coupling Efficiency > 3000 simulations/3m Nodes Organize/Save - Scripting Magnitude 100M CPU hrs Largest CW R&D HPC effort Already set up Evaluate alternative future conditions

19 LESSONS LEARNED OUTCOMES OF NACCS Data Products: serve the coastal engineering and management communities 10+ years 19 Economies of Scale: spatial extent/quantity of reusable data from regional model Relevance: technical advancements post-katrina; enterprise modeling and analysis methods; USACE engineering guidance update

20 QUESTIONS? 20