Practical Applications of Probability in Aviation Decision Making

Transcription

1 Practical Applications of Probability in Aviation Decision Making Haig 22 October 2014

2 Portfolio of TFM Decisions Playbook Reroutes Ground Stops Ground Delay Programs Airspace Flow Programs Arrival & Departure Fix Metering National Regional Planning Horizon (Scale & Hours) Local FPAW 2

3 Sample Strategic TFM Decisions Sample Strategic Forecast Tools Strategic Decisions Manage tactically? Throttle traffic flow? Reduce airport arrivals? LAMP (Probabilistic) CoSPA (Deterministic) Strategic reroutes? TFM decisions require high-fidelity forecasts of storm structure and characteristics 2014 FPAW 3

4 Approaches to Probabilistic Forecasts for Aviation Model Ensemble Thunderstorm Probability Don t Know? Historical Data Translate to probability Translate to decision No 5 Yes Take Action Model Ensemble AFP! Ensemble Airspace Classification 0.8 Probability of Impact 0.6 Historical Data Translate to decision Translate to probability Take Action 0 Low Impact Medium Impact High Impact 2014 FPAW 4

5 Decision-based Uncertainty Define Resources Define Decisions Provide Uncertainty NY Metro FCA FCA Airspace Availability Most Likely Availability & Range FCAOB1 FCAOB1 FCABW1 FCAA01 1 hr 2 hr 3 hr 4 hr 5 hr 6 hr 7 hr 8 hr Blockage FCAOB1 Enroute 0 hr Time 8 hr NY Metro Gates N E S Terminal Gate Availability 0.5 hr 1 hr 1.5 hr 2 hr 2.5 hr 3 hr 3.5 hr 4 hr Blockage West Gates Terminal W 0 hr Time 4 hr 2014 FPAW 5

6 FCA Blockage and Uncertainty FCA Blockage Forecast Issued 12 UTC TMI? Worst Case Scenario Best Case High Scenario Forecast Uncertainty Ensemble of CoSPA Forecasts Valid 8 Hours in the Future (20Z) Most likely blockage Time (UTC) Possible range of blockage Blockage forecast and uncertainty based on: Model to translate storm intensity and height to blockage Time-lagged ensemble of CoSPA forecasts Historical forecast performance given scale, orientation, intensity of weather Location, issue time, valid time 2014 FPAW 6

7 FCA Blockage and Uncertainty FCA Blockage Forecast Issued 12 UTC TMI? High Forecast Uncertainty Ensemble of CoSPA Forecasts Valid 8 Hours in the Future (20Z) FCA Blockage Time (UTC) Forecast Issued 15 UTC TMI! Low Forecast Uncertainty Ensemble of CoSPA Forecasts Valid 5 Hours in the Future (20Z) Observed blockage Time (UTC) Regular forecast updates needed to revisit decisions 2014 FPAW 7

8 FCA Blockage Forecast Event Start, Duration and Recovery Forecast Issued 15 UTC Event start Ongoing event Event Start Ongoing Event Time (UTC) Forecast Issued 22 UTC FCA Blockage Ongoing event Event recovery Event Recovery Time (UTC) 2014 FPAW 8

9 Summary Traffic Flow Management decisions encompass a portfolio of time and space scales in the NAS Probabilistic forecasts cast in TFM decision space could yield considerable operational benefit for strategic planning Convert high-fidelity weather forecasts to aviation impact, then provide probability of impact Provide event start, severity, and duration Focus here on enroute airspace, but similar approach could be used for other airspace and time horizons Probabilistic forecasts need to update regularly so that TFM decisions can be revisited and revised 2014 FPAW 9

10 Future Work Map FCA blockage to flow rate Consider uncertainty for broader portfolio of decisions Incorporate other models in decision-based uncertainty (SREF, LAMP) 2014 FPAW 10