Translating Meteorological Observations into Air Traffic Impacts in Singapore Flight Information Region (FIR)

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1 Translating Meteorological Observations into Air Traffic Impacts in Singapore Flight Information Region (FIR) Michael Robinson The MITRE Corporation Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. Case Number

2 Outline 2 Singapore FIR operations and congestion management needs Convective weather challenges ATM Weather Integration Framework initial applications in Singapore airspace AWI Opportunities and Needs for Asia-Pacific Region

3 Air Traffic Management (ATM) Objective: Congestion Management 3 Preflight Post Flight ATM Strategic Functions Terminal En Route TFM ATM Tactical Functions Terminal ATM Post Analysis Functions ATM system balances demand for air traffic services with available system capacity in an equitable and efficient manner ATM keeps air traffic flows within levels that can be safely managed by air traffic controllers Demand and capacity predictions are essential to ATM planning and efficient air traffic operation

4 Growing Need for Advanced Congestion Management in Singapore FIR 4 Commercial Aircraft Movements Changi Airport Passenger Movements Changi Airport

5 Singapore Flight Information Region (FIR) Operations 5 Singapore Changi Airport Singapore FIR Airspace Sectors Arrival Flows (STAR) Traffic dominated by flights to/from Changi airport ATC and ATM ops distributed among 8 en route sectors Congestion arises due to: Weather Volume surges Military flight activity Traffic regulated via strategic slot allocation Tactical flow management via arrival management (AMAN) controller tools / procedures & airborne holding Special Use Airspace Departure Flows (SID)

6 Significant Weather Challenges in Singapore FIR 6 Ee, P. (MSS), 2015: Aviation Weather Forecasting Challenges in Singapore, 2015 Aviation Weather Symposium, Air Traffic Management Research Institute, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Radar Images courtesy of Meteorological Services of Singapore (MSS) Significant and varied convective weather conditions all year long A forecast challenge Changi airport affected by: Lightning Gusty winds, wind shifts Transboundary haze

7 Weather and Traffic in Singapore FIR 7 22 July UTC

8 8 ATM Weather Integration (AWI) Framework Most effective ATM of weather-induced capacity degradation requires AWI Proactive management of impact of weather is what matters not weather itself Weather impact translation & integration: Simplifies and focuses disparate weather information Fundamentally informs how weather affects operation and decisions needed for impact mitigation

9 Adopting AWI Framework for Singapore Initial Focus: Convection in FIR 9 Initial Efforts: MSS Doppler Weather Radar Data Identify / collect pertinent weather & traffic data Quantitatively assess weather impact events Conditions Responses ATM Decision Options Outcomes Develop models for translating weather data into operational impacts Satellite-derived Convection Diagnosis Oceanic (CDO) and Cloud Top Height (CTH) Data NCAR, BCI, Inc. CDO CTH Assess available weather forecast usable for AWI Create new products tailored to predicting weather impacts on air traffic Minor convective hazard Moderate Significant

10 Varied Pilot Responses given Convective Weather along its Route 10 5 km CAPPI 5 km CAPPI 5 km CAPPI 5 km CAPPI Unaffected Traffic near Weather (Heavy weather coverage in sector, minimal flow to traffic / flow of interest) Weather Penetration Weather Avoidance Local Deviation Weather Avoidance Wide-Area Deviation Objective identification of weather encounters and deviation / penetration response Statistical analysis examining encounter characteristics relative to operation characteristics informs weather avoidance likelihoods

11 Weather Translation leading to Weather Impact Guidance 11 A SID STAR B SID STAR With impact translation, can replace weather radar, satellite, CDO, convection observations and forecasts. Resource-specific air traffic impact decision support

12 AWI Opportunities: Asia-Pacific Region 12 Weather impact challenges country-specific, but framework and models applicable to broader A-P region Adopting models standing up in Singapore ensure regional synergy Important for Singapore too: many long-haul flights and cross-firboundary weather constraint and ATM decision-making implications AWI is new endeavor would better overcome initial challenges with dedicated program focused on: Defining key air traffic decision needs and explicit weather challenges Establishing strong AWI partnerships between Civil Aviation Authorities (e.g., CAAS) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS; e.g., MSS) Jointly identify gaps and AWI requirements / services Define and develop two way training program (air traffic & met ops) Develop regional, multi-country FIR-NMHS partnerships for AWI in support of ATM

13 Thank you

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