HIWeather. Brian Golding David Johnston

Transcription

1 HIWeather Brian Golding David Johnston

2 Activity report

3 In 2017, despite dramatic improvements in weather forecasts, communication technology and disaster management, weather-related disasters Killed ten thousand people Affected one hundred million people Caused three hundred billion dollars of damage

4 Urbanisation Trade imbalances Lack of Employment Poor infrastructure Poor Health services Food shortages Migration Poverty Poor Housing Overcrowding Children Elderly Hunger Fuel Poverty Illness Isolation Vulnerable populations Poor language skills Disaster potential River overtopping Storm surge Fog Weatherrelated hazards Drought Windstorm Rainstorm Squall Polluted air Freezing conditions Severe convection Stratospheric vortex Baroclinic wave Diabatic forcing Moisture convergence Tropical wave Cloud processes Topographic forcing Land surface exchange Ocean fluxes Boundary Layer mixing Disasters occur when vulnerable populations are exposed to hazards

5 Prediction enables: Reduced hazard Climate change mitigation & Land use change Temporary pollutant reduction Reduced exposure Land zoning & Engineering Temporary Evacuation &/or Protection Reduced vulnerability Building resilience & insurance Temporary survival resources: personal/communal

6 1. Map risk Designing a warning chain 2. Co-design & quantify feasible risk mitigations 3. Co-design & model feasible warning chain 4. Co-implement

7 Conceptual Warning Process: the 5 valleys of death Bridges represent inter-disciplinary &/or inter-agency communication

8 HIWeatherobjectives Communication Predictability & Processes Multiscale Forecasts Vulnerability & Risk Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Uncertainty Field campaigns & demonstrations Knowledge Transfer Verification Impact Forecasting Databases & Archiving Evaluation

9 Workshops Apr 25-29, 2016: Exeter, UK Building the community and initiating activities to deliver the implementation plan Oct 10-12, 2017: Landshut, Germany Km-scale weather processes, error growth, weather modelling, coupled prediction, data assimilation 13 related papers published by W2W W2W special issue of AMS journals Nov 20-22, 2018: Beijing, China The warnings value chain, contributions of new research, measuring value, attributing value

10 Organisational Michael Riemerhas taken over as team leader for Processes & Predictability and has recruited new members New members have joined the Multi-Scale Hazard Forecasting and Communications Teams Andrea Taylor of Leeds University has taken over from Sally Potter as co-lead of the Communications Team during Sally s maternity leave. The Advisory Group has increased its teleconference frequency Prof QinghongZhang has been appointed manager of the ICO in Beijing, hosted by CAMS, with LiyeLi as assistant

11 Membership Processes & Predictability: 7 members Multi-Scale Forecasting: 7 members Human Impacts Vulnerability & Risk: 5 members Communication: 14 members Evaluation: 10 members Genders balanced overall but not in each team Geographical spread amongst Europe, North America & Australasia - too few from developing countries Too few early career scientists

12 HIWeather-linked research HIWeatherpromotes research into weak points in the prediction of high impact weather. Linked research is being carried out in the USA, Germany, UK, China in: Advances in ground-based radar & its processing (FfIR) Use of unconventional observations from low cost stations, vehicles and phones, and from social media High frequency, multi-scale initialisation with hybrid variational/ ensemble data assimilation and approaches to km-scale ensemble prediction Understanding small scale error growth

13 HIWeather-linked research HIWeather promotes research in the prediction of weatherrelated hazards. Linked research is being carried out in the UK, China, Australia & New Zealand in: Large domain distributed hydrological models & surface water flood forecasting: FfIR coupled land surface modelling, urban drainage modelling, modelling sediment transport Advances in fire weather prediction Integrated weather/ocean/hydrological prediction models: UKEP report on km-scale coupling sensitivity

14 HIWeatherreviews Communicating High Impact Weather Special Issue of International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, now available 14 papers contributed by the HIWeather community Wind Hazard review Aiming for first draft in early 2019 Review of wind damage, wind prediction and warning Current state of nowcasting & forecasting high impact weather To besubmittedto BAMS in November2018 An outcome of the HIWeather Conference Predictability and Multi-Scale Prediction of High-Impact Weather in Landshut, Germany, October 2017 Review and classification of impact modelling Draft to be discussed at HIWeather Workshop in Beijing, China, November 2018 Explore and summarize use of impact models at NMHSs, assess performance and benefit of impact models, seek link to CBS expert team

15 HIWeatherresearch activities Evaluating the effectiveness of impact-based extreme weather warnings and behaviouralrecommendations Survey of expected responses of Swiss citizens to impact-based vs. nonimpact-based warnings. Impact information and behavioural recommendationsin warning messages bothpromotemore effective decisions than standard warnings, the latter more so.

16 HIWeatherevaluation activities Neighbourhood metrics for spatially complex ensemble forecasts allowing for observation error: MESOVICT AMS Special Issue User-relevant metrics competition papers published Evaluating the warnings value chain: GAR19 paper New activity: validating warnings with unconventional data Survey of Tropical Cyclone skillin global model ensembles and how they are currently used in TC forecasting

17 HIWeathercontributions to projects RELAMPAGO-CACTI (La Plata Basin) (Contributions from US, Argentina, Brazil, Chile) (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Meso-scale/micro-scale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations - Cloud Aerosols and Complex Terrain Interactions) HIWeatherseeksto engage in modellingof severeconvection and itsimpacts, especiallyon urbanareas, and to assessthe use of social media to monitor theseimpacts. HIGHWAY (Lake Victoria), African SWIFT (C. Africa), SHEAR (E. Africa) (Funded by UKAid) HIWeather work on defining& modelling the value chain is guiding the approach to designing weather warnings. HIWeather aims to evaluate the success of this approach. SURF (Beijing) (Funded by the Chinese Meteorological Agency) HIWeather is engaged in the modelling of urban flash floods and haze. SCMREX, YMC, UPDRAFT, ICE-POP2018, TLFDP (Tropical severe weather) Field experiments involving HIWeather-linked institutes

18 UK: Verification, Impacts, Communication, FfIR, SHEAR/GCRF, UKEP, WoW Canada: Impacts Germany: W2W, WEXICOM Korea: ICE-POP US: NCAR, USGCRP, Weather Ready Nation France: HYMEX, Impacts Switzerland: Communication China: SURF, SCMREX, MOUNTAOM, CMA projects Argentina: ALERT.AR, RELAMPAGO-CACTI Africa: GCRF African SWIFT East Africa: HIGHWAY, SHEAR projects Australia: impacts, HIWeather network, communication, verification, Wildfires New Zealand: Communication, HIWeather network

19 WGNE Grey Zone HWRP FFGS Exchange of hydrological data Urban flood forecasting GAW/GURME Urban forecasting Air pollution hazard SURF JWGFVR User verification Hazard verification MESOVICT WGTMR Ensemble tropical cyclone forecasts SCMREX WGNMR HIGHWAY ICE-POP MOUNTAOM PDEF km-scale error growth WIGOS Standards & Exchange of unconventional observations WGSERA Value Chain Socio-economic impacts Communication GDPFS Operationalisation of the warning value chain DAOS km-scale data assimilation S2S Extreme events

20 External HIWeather links UKAID Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction Sustainable Development Goals Paris Agreement on Climate Change UNISDR IRDR Future Earth WCRP Warnings Managing risk Extremes & their impacts Processes GEWEX/ WGNE

21 High Impact Weather: Limitations, Uncertainty, Coupled, Verification A better warning value chain for better outcomes High Impact Weather processes & prediction: Role of latent heat, Landshut conference, reviews of nowcasting/forecast HIWx, W2W special issue, support to SURF, RELAMPAGO, ICE-POP. Mapping exposure and vulnerability, predicting impacts reviews of wind hazard and of impact prediction in progress Predicting & communicating probability, risk & consequence Review of use of Tropical Cyclone ensembles, Risk-KAN, Special issue on communication of high impact weather; support to HIGHWAY, African SWIFT; benefit of impact/response information Role of ocean & land surface in HIWx-coupled hazard prediction: UKEP paper on km-scale coupling sensitivity Evaluating & optimising the warning chain GAR19 paper

22 Water: water cycle, observations, processes, uncertainty Flooding & its consequences dominate disaster records Km-scale Precipitation & Hazard observations FfIR advances in radar processing Coupled water cycle & hydrological modelling UKEP report on sensitivity to coupling FfIR outputs in flood prediction & sediment transport UK follow-on project: HydroJULES Role of latent heat in severe weather processes NAWDEX publications Advances in Cloud Physics processes W2W publications

23 Urban: Needs, Observations & Prediction Urban flood, heat, pollution hazards & their impacts The value chain for urban warnings Cascading hazards*, dynamic exposure, multiple vulnerabilities Hazard observations Use of unconventional observations Risk Communication, Emergent/Cascading risk Risk-KAN Response monitoring & evaluation Use of social media

24 Technology: Observations Observing km-scale weather, hazards, impacts & responses Remote sensing FfIR advances in radar processing FfIR research on error correlations in satellite data Unconventional observations WoWand ALERT.AR platforms for collecting unconventional observations Use of data reported for other purposes: e.g. MODE-S aircraft data. Social Media scraping Created network of researchers in this field Papers published on Twitter use

25 The next year: organisational Workshop in Beijing: drafts of reviews; activity reports; plans Major involvement in GP2019 sessions, IC-MHEWS conference, side event Representation at AGU & AMS annual meetings, IUGG 2019 assembly, FfIR final conference etc. Develop links with US research Build links with WCRP/IRDR/Future Earth, especially through Risk-KAN; support funding bid Build links with health community through GHHIN Strengthen links with HIGHWAY*, African SWIFT, RELAMPAGO, SURF, TMR projects, MOUNTAOM and new projects Promote value chain concept & associated research Develop links with IFRC FbF initiative & other NGOs Workshop on capture/use of unconventional observations with FVR,DAOS,NMR,SERA,ET/IMPACT

26 The next year: research Complete/publish reviews of: wind hazard, use of ensembles in tropical cyclone warnings, impact prediction, nowcasting HIWx Work with JWGFVR, ABoM& others on crowd sourced hazard/impact data: develop data standards & exchange proposal Km-scale data assimilation intercomparison with DAOS,NMR Initiate project on understanding/using the value chain concept with SERA/FVR Formulate project on the role of trust in warning effectiveness with SERA Initiate secondary data analysis of UK warning response surveys Initiate Study of colour in warnings Assemble database of post-event warning reviews Initiate intercomparison of nowcast model performance with NMR Develop proposal for a training with NMR Initiate new Grey Zone project with GASS, PDEF, NMR, WGNE

27 Summary During the past year HIWeather has grown its sphere of influence Large number of papers published ICO has been formed in Beijing In the next year Large proportion of the original planned activities completed Workshop in Beijing in November will plan new activities Links with other groups will be strengthened and consolidated. HIWeather will increase its visibility on the global stage

28 Thank you Merci

29 Discussion

30 Summary HIWeather delivers to most of the WWRP IP High Impact Weather theme activities, but predominantly to address limitations. Significant progress has been made this year by sharing progress at the Landshut conference, publication of a large number of papers in the processes, modelling & communication areas, and continuing to build a community of inter-disciplinary scientists. HIWeather also makes significant contributions to selected activities in the Water, Urban and Technology themes. HIWeather has grown new links with other international programmes, especially in climate adaptation and disaster reduction, which will help to deliver the project aims.

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32 Considering the following details of the research component of the future Global Data Processing and Forecasting System, what do you see as the near-term priorities and actions and Mid-to-longer term actions for research and innovation in the GDPFS context? 1. The users' need for information should drive the value chain. Unless there is a viable mitigation response, there is no point in developing a warning capability. 2. Routine exchange of a broader range of observations is required to support prediction & evaluation of impact-based forecasts & warnings. 3. Research is needed to improve NWP precision and accuracy up to T+12hrs, especially in regional model configurations, to support warnings. Improved data assimilation is key. HIWeather has proposed an intercomparison, but it has yet to gain traction in the community. 4. Coupled models need to be optimised for km-scale, short-range prediction. 5. To optimisethe value chain, metrics are needed that enable the contribution of each link to be assessed and end value to be attributed.

33 Considering the following definition, do you have any recommendations for developing "an interactive model linking science and services"? 1. Optimisationof NWP performance cannot be based on requirements of specific users. The result would be biased predictions that would be unsuitable for other uses. However, there are aspects of NWP performance (egperformance in extreme conditions) that should be prioritised in the light of the general requirements of end users. 2. Where services are provided for specific users, the service should be co-designed. Where the range of users is too broad for this, account should be taken of how the information will be used by critical users (eg emergency management) 3. NMHSs should be encouraged to make use of social science expertise and to link with social science academics when designing new services or upgrades to existing services.

34 Strengthening the WWRP community 1. Strengthening links with WGNE and the WCRP WGs. 2. Promoting the value of impact and communication research. 3. Increasing engagement with NMHSs that have modest research capability. 4. A clearer process for supporting & linking with external projects and for acknowledgement of that support. 5. Becoming partners in global DRR programmes.

35 AA 2: UNCERTAINTY Identify, characteriseand quantify analysis and forecast uncertainty using advanced probabilistic methods, and develop corresponding data channels and communication mechanisms which support decision making under uncertainty AA 3: FULLY COUPLED Work with different science communities to develop modelling systems that fully integrate the most relevant components of the earth system; link to and utilise socioeconomic models and data to assess impacts AA 4: APPLICATIONS Develop end-to-end approaches from meteorology to impacts, in application areas of public health, commerce, industry, transport,water, energy, defence, agriculture, etc., taking into account the varying user needs in different parts of the world AA 5: VERIFICATION Develop methods to verify forecasts and warnings of high-impact weather and its impacts and demonstrate their benefit, with a focus on probabilistic and impact-based methods, including collecting and processing suitable observations (particularly non-conventional weather observations by non-conventional means); assess the impact of near misses and false alarms; and evaluate the end-to-end forecast chain with emphasis on what is of value to the user AA 6: ATTRIBUTION Connect knowledge and abilities to simulate high-impact weather events at high spatial and temporal resolution with larger scaleclimate change expertise to more confidently attribute linkages to longer term climate variability and change Challenge: Water AA 7: INTEGRATED WATER CYCLE Improve understanding, observation, assimilation and modelling of the components of the integrated water cycle, and its global, regional and local interactions AA 8: NEW OBSERVATIONS Assess and exploit new in-situ and remotely sensed hydrometeorological observations AA 9: PRECIPITATION PROCESSES Improve understanding, observation and modelling of aerosol, cloud and water vapour aspects of precipitation processes, with a view to improved estimation and predictions of precipitation AA 10: HYDROLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY Characterise and communicate how Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) uncertainty translates to hydrological uncertainty (and vice versa) Challenge: Urbanization AA 11: UNDERSTAND NEEDS Improve understanding and knowledge of the relationship between the urban physical and built environment, the social, behaviouraland economic needs of its population, and the requirements for integrated weather-related environmental services AA 12: OBSERVATIONS & PROCESSES Improve observations and understanding of the unique urban physical processes, including dynamical, chemical and hydrologic AA 13: URBAN PREDICTION Develop, validate and demonstrate urban prediction capabilities, toward building urban environment integrated information systems to support decision making for different applications in different parts of the world Challenge: Evolving Technologies AA 14: ADVANCED METHODS Conduct methodological research (numerical methods, coupling strategies, assimilation methods, observational and model data information exploitation, including postprocessing) to ensure that scientific enhancements can be implemented in future forecasting systems, and that systems can provide timely services AA 15: SUPPORT FACILITIES Enhance access to services (observations, model output, data collection and pre-processing and global models) that require exceptional HPC and data handling, as an enabler for WWRP research AA 16: TOOLS Share specialist methods and tools enabling complex modelling systems to be run by a wider community, including beyond WWRP AA 17: NEW OBSERVATIONS Prepare for exploitation of information from new, advanced observing systems, as well as commodity-technology-based data AA 18: FUTURE GOS Inform the design of the future global observing system Low Medium Low Low Medium High High High Low Low High High Medium High Medium Medium Not at all Low Medium Medium Low Medium Low Low Low Low Not at all Not at all Not at all Not at all Medium High Not at all Not at all