WMO/WWRP FDP: INCA CE

Transcription

1 WMO/WWRP FDP: INCA CE Yong Wang ZAMG, Austria This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

2 INCA CE: implementation over Central Europe A Nowcasting Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans national Level The INCA-CE project is funded by Project budget: 3.3 million (4.7 million US$) Project Lead: ZAMG

3 INCA CE: international R&D on nowcasting A state of the art, very high resolution in time and space, application oriented, real time analysis and nowcasting system INCA Operational implementation at each partner Common efforts on research and maintainence 24 institutions from meteorology, hydrology, crisis management, road safety, fire brigade, police, ministries etc.

4 INCA CE: Relevance Operational Hydrology Civil protection Road management Prediction of heavy rainfall and associated flooding risks will help to set up efficient procedures in the management of mitigating actions for the protection of buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. Civil protection will benefit from a more comprehensive assessment of meteorological threats, and a more detailed and timely forecast, leading to more efficient warning protocols and dissemination strategies. Road safety will be enhanced by a more detailed road weather forecast made available both to the road management authorities as well as to the general public. While the frequency and strength of critical weather events and natural disasters cannot be reduced, a state-of-the-art information and warning system will be developed to better support public and private institutions in case of severe events

5 WWRP/WMO FDP partnership and management Meteoswiss

6 INCA CE Central European Partnership Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Security Center Burgenland Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Fire Brigade and Civil Protection National Crisis and Disaster Management and Civil Protection Provincial Government of Lower Austria - Road Maintenance Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Fraunhofer-Institute of Optronics, System Technologies and Image Exploitation Hungarian Meteorological Service Disaster Management Directorate of Somogy County Regional Agency for Environmental Protection 8 EU countries; 16 partners Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute Ministry of Interior of the Slovak Republic Environmental Agency of the republic of Slovenia CGS plus d.o.o. Innovative IT and Environmental Technologies Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Department for Crisis Management Poland

7 INCA CE Project: working packages Transregional strategy development Establishment of transregional working groups on hydrology, civil protection and road safety Evaluate current implementations Provide solutions strategies for similar regions Adaption and refinement of nowcasting system Algorithmic improvements in meteorological and hydrological nowcasting Precipitation nowcasting through merging of different data sources Incorporating topographic effects for wind nowcasting Realistic simulation of flash-floods and mudslide hazards Pilot implementations Implementation of the developed warning system Assessment of the added value from new developments Feedback/evaluation Quantitative and qualitative description of improvements achieved from outcomes of this project Compile recommendations for use of this system outside the CE area Strengths and limits of the system in view of hydrology, civil protection and road safety

8 INCA CE Project: working packages

9 INCA CE Project: working packages

10 INCA CE Project: actions

11 WWRP/WMO FDP INCA CE realization The WMO/WWRP FDP will be conducted in over Central Europe (CE) with 4 implementation phases: 1. Development of transnational strategy in road safety, civil protection and operational hydrology. ( ) Compilation and evaluation of regional methods currently in use. Provide solution strategies for optimal use of nowcasting and weather warnings in crisis management and risk prevention. 2. Optimization of nowcasting system ( ) INCA development towards to the need of crisis management and risk prevention. Algorithmic extension; standard input and output interfaces. Improvement in data flow, quality control, computational efficiency. Observational data exchange in real time.

12 WWRP/WMO FDP INCA CE realization 3.Forecast Demonstration of the developed strategy and optimized nowcasting system through pilot implementations ( ) National scale application and testing of the nowcasting system and warning strategies at user level. Establishment of structured feedback channels for final evaluation 4. Evaluation and feedback ( ) Elaboration and compilation of transnational results, guidelines and recommendations Evaluation, feedback circle between nowcasting provider and crisis management and risk prevention Training for better understanding the warning strategies and nowcasting system

13 INCA CE: project agenda and dealines Deadline Action Title Newsletter PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP Transnational strategies INCA CE Video Progress meeting in Poland Newsletter PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP Web portal Progress meeting in Hungary Newsletter Warning system modules PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP Implementation manual End user experience Progress meeting in Italy Evaluation Newsletter PP submit technical contribution for PR to the LP 2 nd half of 2013 Closing conference in Slovakia Official closing of project

14 INCA CE core outputs Optimised transnational warning strategies, guidelines A state of the art, very high resolution in time and space, application oriented, real time analysis and common nowcasting system INCA Nowcasting products translated into user realvant information Nowcasting moduls for hydrology, civil protection and road management Communication, feedback, training mechanism between nowcasting provider and application Real time obs. Exchange, standardized input/output interface, data flow, QC etc.

15 INCA CE core output Operational hydrology A web based, trans national weather information system using state of the art nowcasting methods Crisis management und risk prevention Civil protection Road management

16 Development of strategy for civil protection Crisis management structure, tasks and the weather information chain in the partner countries Organization on country and regional level Main tasks with high weather impact Communication methods and alert systems Requirements and use of weather information Cross border cooperation, evaluation of the operations

17 Example: Civil Protection Recommendations INCA SWING (Severe Weather INterpretation Guide) Basic meteorological terms explained to the general public and Civil Protection authorities > increased meteorological understanding INCA MCPEX (Meteorological Civil Protection EXercise) Organization of practical exercises and trainings > information chain and communication tested INCA ISW (Impact of Severe Weather) Cross border, real time exchange of information about weather related damages to improve the preparedness and forecasting, predominantly in the bordering regions > Increased forecasting time of fast developing weather phenomena; more accurate specification of mesoscale aspects of large scale events

18 INCA CE: civil protection Automatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public Gust monitor Neusiedler lake Severe weather warnings

19 INCA CE: landslide warning Identification of regions with high disposition Slope Exposition Geotechnical structure Creeks history Analyse and forecast of extrem weather (INCA) Precipitation (1km, 15min) Temperature Hydrological variables Fusion of geo-related data Estimation of stability Activating Thunderstorm Several days lasting rainfall Snow melting Identification of hazard zones Warning

20 Road safety: requirement on INCA forecast INCA forecasted parameter Importance for forecast of road conditions Resolutions Required resolution (accuracy) Total precipitation very 30 min / 1 km min [kg/m 2 ] Solid precipitation very 30 min / 1km min [kg/m 2 ] Precipitation type [1,2,3,4] very 30 min / 1km min (>90% event probability) Sun percentage [%] very 30 min / 1km min Temperature (2.0 m above ground) [K] very 60 min / 1km 60 min (RMSE < 2 K) Dew point temperature (2.0 m above ground) [K] moderately 60 min / 1km 60 min Temperature (surface) [K] Relative humidity (2.0 m above ground) [%] u component of wind (10.0 m above ground) [m/s] v component wind (10.0 m above ground) [m/s] very 60 min / 1km 60 min (RMSE < 2 K) moderately 60 min / 1km 60 min very 60 min / 1km min (RMSE < 2 m/s) very 60 min / 1km min (RMSE < 2 m/s) Other INCA parameters moderately 60 min / 1km 60 min

21 INCA & ensemble prediction Every 5min, very high resolution 1km + Precipitation forecast 1 Precipitation forecast 2 Precipitation. forecast 3.. Precipitation forecast n INCA CE: hydrology Limit precipitation exceeded? Hydrological simulation Set of n hydrological forecast Evaluation 3 5 Continue in following time step Warning issued + - Issue warning? 4

22 Summary In frame of INCA CE project 24 international institutions, not only from weather services, but also from hydrological services, public authorities of crisis management, civil protection and road management, will work together on: more detailed and accurate nowcasting system optimised strategies for using weather warning information by decision maker of various social and economic sectors coordinated warning of severe weather Save Life! Save Cost! Reduce Risks!