HIWeather report to WWRP SSC

Transcription

1 HIWeather report to WWRP SSC 1. Review of HIWeather vision and objectives Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications. The importance of this overall vision was reinforced by the objective on early warning systems in the Sendai Framework and by continuing evidence of the vulnerability of a large part of the world population to weather related disasters. Improve knowledge & understanding of processes that generate weather related hazards so as to assess their predictability. Both effective warnings and climate policy advice gain from better understanding of the interactions involved. Develop multi scale coupled forecasting systems of weather related hazards, including new observation sources, advances in data assimilation, modeling & ensemble prediction, and definition of new products. Km scale NWP continues to improve, but many challenges remain before it delivers its full benefits. Improve knowledge, understanding & modeling of the exposure & vulnerability of society, businesses, environment & infrastructure to hazards; obtain data and develop tools & models to assess the resulting risk. The importance of relating warnings to the expected impact of the predicted hazard is widely accepted, but the practicalities of estimating impact remain challenging. Improve knowledge & understanding of the processes & variables that influence stakeholders decisions from high impact weather forecasts & warnings and of the information communication characteristics that lead to effective responses. The ultimate value of the warning process lies in making better decisions. Develop improved methods of verifying forecasts, hazard warnings and people s responses so as to permit evaluation of each stage in the production chain. It is important to know when and how value is lost & gained in the warning process. 2. Key HIWeather highlights of the past year The year has been spent in mobilizing the project, with the highlight being the kick off meeting in April. Administration EC accepted the Implementation Plan in June Joint leads Sally Potter and Shannon Parchuk were appointed for the communication theme. Interim leads Linda Anderson Berry, Kiernan McGill, David Johnston and Abi Beatson are in place until the appointees return from maternity leave. The Steering Group has met four times, three by teleconference and once at the kick off meeting. Julia Keller has joined the secretariat, with special responsibility for HIWeather. A communications web platform is being developed at Massey University. Discussions on the formation of an International Coordination Office have progressed slowly. It was agreed to form an advisory board, consisting of representatives of donors, users, UN, climate and academia, with Prof. Virginia Murray as first member. Potential members are currently being approached by the secretariat. Publications Newsletters were circulated in February and September to a large mailing list. The WMO/WWRP web page currently provides access to the Implementation Plan, the Kick Off meeting report, HIWeather presentations and Newsletters. Conferences and Meetings January 2016: The UNISDR post Sendai science meeting in Geneva was attended by the co chairs. HIWeather aims to build resilience to weather related

2 disasters through improved warnings were reinforced. A key activity was identification of research gaps, for which the HIWeather implementation plan is a useful resource April 2016: A Fire Weather & Risk Workshop was held at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne. Operational, research and service aspects of fire and smoke management were considered. Ensemble approaches are being embraced by fire communities for spatial guidance in addressing fire risk on a range of timescales April 2016: The HIWeather Kick off workshop was held at the Met Office in Exeter, UK. Several of the WWRP Working Groups met on April. The Steering Group had its first physical meeting on 26 th. The opening session was inspired by the presentation of Prof Virginia Murray of Public Health England and UNISDR. Much of the discussion was undertaken in research themes. A report on research priorities has been produced and circulated. 6 8 July 2016: The Royal Meteorological Society conference on High Impact Weather & Climate met in Manchester, UK. The format was a combination of keynote talks and parallel workshops, several of which addressed HIWeather themes. The abstracts are available July 2016: the WWRP Nowcasting 2016 conference was held in Hong Kong. Presentations on a wide range of topics in nowcasting, short range forecasting and applications were well received. Scientific Progress i. Following final preparations and the fortuitous re availability of the UK FAAM aircraft, the field phase of NAWDEX got underway in mid September. Preliminary feedback indicates that some good data should have been obtained. i A funding opportunity from the UK Department for International Development is being pursued to progress a pilot nowcasting demonstration for Lake Victoria in association with the East Africa SWFDP. If successful, it is anticipated that a larger follow on project may be supported. A special issue of the Quarterly Journal has reported results from the HYMEX RDP with relevance to HIWeather objectives. iv. PhD positions have been identified at Massey University and ETH Zurich to take forward the projects on use of unconventional observations for impact forecasting / evaluation of warnings and on the relevance of governance structures to warnings decision making respectively. Task team members have committed to lead or be involved with reviews in short range forecasting and impact forecasting capability in the next year. 3. HIWeather links to WGs, Projects, International initiatives i. HIWeather has excellent links with the PDEF, DAOS, WGNMFR, JWGFVR & SERA working groups through cross membership with the HIWeather task teams. Many activities are being developed jointly between HIWeather and one or other of the WGs. i HIWeather has links with GURME through Veronique Bouchet and Alexander Baklanov. GURME largely focuses on processes at smaller scales (e.g. street canyon scale) than HIWeather. With the development of the WMO urban focus, this link should develop more strongly. HIWeather has good relations with PPP and S2S. Co chair Brian Golding is a member of the S2S Extreme Weather sub project. There is a developing link between NAWDEX and YOPP.

3 iv. HIWeather has links with several WWRP FDP/RDPs, including NAWDEX, Lake Victoria, RELAMPAGO, ICE POP18, SURF. v. There are links between HIWeather and WCRP through the WCRP Grand Challenge on Extreme Events. vi. v vi ix. Co chair Brian Golding keeps close contact with the SWFDPs through Ken Mylne, chair of the SWFDP Steering Group. The proposed Lake Victoria FDP is closely linked to the Southern & Eastern Africa SWFDPs. Links with IRDR have been weak during its review period, but with new leadership in place, it is hoped that they can be reinvigorated. The advisory group will help to develop these relationships. The UNISDR Science Meeting in January 2016 was used by both co chairs and head of WWRP to engage with stakeholders. It is hoped to use the UNISDR Global Platform in May 2017 similarly. The possibility of a meeting with stakeholders at that event will be explored. x. The Kick off workshop in April 2016 included a panel discussion with representatives of funding agencies, chaired by head of WWRP which raised the profile of HIWeather and identified some possible funding avenues for exploration. 4. HIWeather plans for the next year i. Workshop on km scale nowcasting and short range prediction in southern Germany, probably in early October 2017, in association with the German Waves to Weather (W2W) programme, focusing on predictability and uncertainty in processes, data assimilation, ensemble forecasting, post processing and evaluation. Planned outputs are a review paper on the state of km scale nowcasting and short range forecasting, with a draft ready shortly after the workshop, and initiation of an intercomparison of multi scale data assimilation and nowcast/short range forecast schemes. Leads George Craig, Sharan Majumdar and Jenny Sun. Processes & Predictability, Multi Scale Forecasting, and Evaluation task teams. i Review wind hazard forecasting. Clarify wind metrics that relate to impacts; describe the state of the art in observing and predicting these metrics; identify processes that lead to high impacts; make recommendations for targeted work to address weaknesses in understanding, observing and prediction. Prepare Wind hazard review paper by mid Lead George Craig. Processes & Predictability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk task teams. Survey the use of unconventional data sources for impact modelling, evaluation & communication. PhD project for completion in Leads: David Johnston, Abi Beatson. Human Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk, Communication and Evaluation task teams. iv. Inventory, Classification and Critical Review of impact models and their use by NHMS agencies. Prepare draft paper by end Lead: Brian Mills. Human Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk task team. v. Initiate intercomparison experiment for impact models related to a particular hazard. Lead Martin Goeber. Human Impacts, Vulnerability & Risk task team. vi. Workshop on Measuring the Value Chain in 2017, addressing the choice of metrics, data gathering techniques, analysis approaches, and the choice of Forecasting Demonstration Project within which to demonstrate the concept. Lead Jeff Lazo. All task teams.

4 v vi Develop a project on Communication along the Value Chain in Different Cultures. Lead Isabelle Ruin. Communication and Evaluation task teams. Review of communication in national severe weather warning services. Papers to be published in special issue of Disaster Risk journal in Lead Andrea Taylor. Communication task team. ix. Communication of risk in weather warnings. Review and UK trials to be carried out in Lead Melanie Harrowsmith. Communication task team. x. Review probabilistic forecasts of Tropical Cyclones and their evaluation with the aim of promoting their better use, outputs to be presented at the 2018 WMO Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. Lead Helen Titley. Evaluation and Multi scale Forecasting task teams. xi. x xi Develop a concept and outline plan for a HIWeather Multi Hazard Early Warning System Demonstration Project (FDP) to be held towards the end of HIWeather, with a trial phase in ~2018 9, based on application of km scale coupled ensemble impact predictions & advanced communication methods in one or more developing countries in collaboration with existing SWFDP(s). Aim to measure the value chain, identifying causes of the biggest losses; build capacity through participation & training; transfer capability to academic, private & government institutes in the region; and establish on going capability that can be maintained locally. Lead: Peter Steinle. All task teams. Support JWGFVR review of good practice in spatial verification of ensemble forecasts in complex terrain (MESOVICT). Share outcomes of JWGFVR user oriented verification competition. Lead Beth Ebert. Evaluation task team. Support planning for Lake Victoria pilot project (HIGHWAY), the La Plata basin project (RELAMPAGO), the Korean Winter Olympics project (ICE POP2018) and other RDP/FDPs. xiv. Continue to build relationships with WCRP, S2S/PPP, SWFDP, IRDR, with FDP/RDPs, and with national/regional HIWeather initiatives. Abi Beatson will represent the Communication task team at the IRDR Scientific Committee meeting at the end of November Other HIWeather elements: a) Membership Appoint Advisory Group b) Fund raising UK DfiD funding for Lake Victoria FDP pilot HIWeather brochure and side presentation to EC delegates HIWeather profile will be raised through suitable publication. c) Meeting plan table Monthly co chair/secretariat meetings by teleconference. Quarterly SG meetings by teleconference. Workshop on Predictability & Uncertainty in Nowcasting & Short Range Forecasting in Southern Germany, October 2017 Workshop on the forecasting & warning value chain, possibly with SG meeting HIWeather session in WMO DA Symposium 2017 AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, January Symposium on US International Partnerships. Both co chairs attending. UNISDR Global Platform, WMO conference on Early Warnings, HIWeather meeting with stakeholders, Cancun, May Both co chairs to attend.

5 IAMAS IAPSO IAHS Assembly 2017 in Cape Town, special session on High Impact Weather & Climate co chair is co convenor. HIWeather session in WMO workshop on Tropical Cyclone Prediction 2018