The WWRP Polar Prediction Project ( )
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1 The WWRP Polar Prediction Project ( ) Thomas Jung Chair of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 29 September
2 Arctic Climate Change
3 Opportunities and Risks Some statements from the report: The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn) The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently
4 PPP Mission Statement Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal An important addition: PPP constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)
5 The WWRP-PPP Steering Group Thomas Jung (chair) Peter Bauer David Bromwich Paco Doblas-Reyes Chris Fairall Marika Holland Trond Iversen Brian Mills Pertti Nurmi Don Perovich Phil Reid Ian Renfrew Gregory Smith SG5, Montreal, August 2014 Gunilla Svensson Mikhail Tolstykh Jonny Day
6 International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (ICO) Tasks: Inform Promote Coordinate Oversee implemenation Staffing: Director Administrative support Consultant
7 Research Areas Source: PPP Implementation Plan
8 Observations: Data Coverage Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMP and PILOT Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012 P. Bauer (ECMWF)
9 Role of the Polar Regions for Weather Prediction in Middle Latitudes Day 1-5 Day 1-5 Day Day Day Jung et al. (2014), GRL
10 Sea Ice Prediction Photo: Andrew Peacock/ The Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy is trapped in thick Antarctic ice 1,500 nautical miles south of Hobart, Australia, Friday, Dec. 27, 2013
11 Sea Ice Modelling and Prediction Mean September sea ice concentrations ( ) Finally the wind has turned and a crack in the ice has developed which allows us to move slowly northward. (Captain of the Akademik Shokalskiy) 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) and Rignot et al. (2012)
12 Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Goal: Enable significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user engagement and education activities.
13 Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 Community engagement Align with other planned activities Develop implementation plan Preparatory research Summer school Workshops Liaise with funders YOPP mid to mid Intensive observing periods Dedicated model experiments Research into use & value of forecasts Intensive verification effort Summer school Consolidation Phase mid to 2022 Consolidation Phase mid-2019 to 2022 Data denial experiments Model developments Dedicated reanalyses Operational implementation YOPP publications YOPP conference Note: Joint implementation with MOSAiC!
14 The YOPP-Observational Component Purpose: Comprehensive observational snapshot for Improved initial conditions Model development Forecast verification Selected Elements Mobile systems (buoys, ships etc.) Extra observations from existing sites Supersites model grid box (e.g., MOSAiC and SIOS) Satellite snapshots Special campaigns (aircraft etc.) User relevant data verification Data availability (GTS, data sharing)
15 Purpose The YOPP-Modelling Component Improved coupled models Selected Elements Operational forecasts with special archiving Multi-model sea ice ensemble (TIGGE forcing) Sub-seasonal and seasonal experiments (case studies, extra starting dates, special archiving) Frontier experiments (e.g. high-resolution prediction) Align Transpose-CMIP with YOPP
16 The YOPP-Satellite Component Purpose Improvement of satellite retrivals Provide comprehensive satellite snapshot Selected elements Satellite validation Improved model and data assimilation systems Improved atmospheric products in lower atmosphere Sea ice information (deformation) Ice bergs Dedicated YOPP calls YOPP Planning Summit (8-10 July 2015, ECMWF)
17 YOPP and MOSAiC MOSAiC s contribution to YOPP: Provide observational basis for model development (drifting model grid boxes) Provide ground truthing for satellite community Contribute to the pan-arctic YOPP observing system (support cruises and flights) YOPP s contribution to MOSAiC Model experiments at various resolutions Forecasts (assessment + campaign planning) Pan-Arctic measurements
18 WWRP-PPP Documents PPP Science Plan PPP Implementation Plan YOPP Implementation Plan (version 1.0 to be released in early October 2014) Promotional material Article on PPP in the WMO Bulletin ECMWF workshop proceedings White papers Observational requirements for polar prediction (Arctic Observing Summit 2013) The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (WWOSC) QJ special issue on polar prediction BAMS article (in preparation)
19 Commitments Possible in kind support: Operational centres (e.g. community data sets) National weather services (e.g. extra observations) Research institutes (e.g. dedicated campaigns) Satellite agencies (???) Funding Key to involving the research community National component International component
20 Summary Polar prediction is an important topic! Joint effort of weather and climate research community Enthusiastic community (ensure coordination) Sound plans for PPP are in place There is good support for running PPP (Trust Fund, ICO) PPP/YOPP has gained high visibility Further information:
21 Thank you! Time line of selected PPP activities
22
23 Tropical vs Arctic Atmosphere Tropical Ocean Arctic Ocean Mean Temperature Tendency (K/day) Mean Temperature Tendency (K/day) ECMWF model 6-hourly initial tendencies 120 forecasts (DJF ) Serrar (AWI)
24 Serrar (AWI) Tropical vs Arctic Atmoshere Tropical Ocean Arctic Ocean StDev Temperature Tendency (K/day) StDev Temperature Tendency (K/day)
25 A hole over the Arctic Synop AIREP DRIBU TEMP PILOT Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012 P. Bauer (ECMWF)
26 Forecast verification Jung and Matsueda, PPP special Issue in QJ
27 The Role of Sea Ice in Weather Prediction T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice P. Bauer (ECMWF)
28 Data assimilation in high latitudes Annual difference in the number of cyclones: ASR vs ERA-Interim Arctic Ocean Ocean north of 55N Land north of 55N Tilinina et al. (2014), GRL
29 Forecast verification Bauer et al., PPP special Issue in QJ
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