CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution (WP1)
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1 CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution (WP1) ERA-CLIM2 General assembly Dinand Schepers 16 Jan 2017 Contributors: Eric de Boisseson, Per Dahlgren, Patrick Lalolyaux, Iain Miller and many others ECMWF January 18, 2017
2 Coupled reanalyses to be produced at ECMWF CERA-20C: A coupled reanalysis of the 20th century based on conventional surface and subsurface observations deliver long timeseries of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution based on conventional and satellite observations to evaluate the impact of a higher resolution on the coupled processes Includes land surface and wave analyses Atmosphere Land Wave EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS Ocean October 29, 2014 Sea ice
3 Outline Introduction Coupled data assimilation & the CERA system CERA-SAT A an overview of the assimilation system Special topic: Sea ice Special topic: Sea level anomaly (SLA) assimilation CERA-SAT Current status & future activities EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 3
4 CERA-SAT Atmosphere Increased resolution (TL319; L137) ~60 Kilometre; 137 levels Full observing system Reprocessed datasets; ERA-5 observation usage Diagnostics as in ERA-5 Model: IFS (CY42R1_esuite, April 2016) Observation: ERA5 observing system (except prescribed sea-ice & SST) Assimilation: 10-member ensemble hybrid DA; 24-hour window) Resolution: TL319L137 Initialisation: ERA-Interim Analyses: Archived 3-hourly EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
5 CERA-SAT Ocean/Sea ice Increased resolution (1/4 degree ;ORCA025) ~30 km; 72 levels Ice model (Lim2) coupling Bug fix w.r.t. CERA-20C Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) assimilation Using uncoupled Mean Dynamic Topography (MDT) Model: NEMO / LIM2 (CY42r1_nemo_E28) Forcing: SST nudged ( OSTIA 1/20 th degree analysis) Observation: salinity and temperature profiles, SSA, Sea-ice analysis Assimilation: 10-member ensemble; 24-hour window 3Dvar FGAT; Direct initialisation (DI) Resolution: ORCA0.25 Z75 Initialisation: ORAS5 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
6 CERA-20C (sea ice thickness) CERA-20C Ice thickness in March 1950 ORA-20C à in CERA-20C, sea-ice getting very thick in the Arctic with an increase in the Antarctic as well EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29, 2014
7 Sea ice model coupling in CERA-SAT Arctic Sea Ice Thickness CERA-20C As in CERA-SAT Figure courtesy of Eric de Boisseson EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
8 Sea surface anomaly (SLA) assimilation (I) Sea surface height (CERA-SAT ORAS5); Jan 22, 2012 Figure courtesy of Eric de Boisseson EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
9 Sea surface anomaly (SLA) assimilation (II) Sea surface salinity (CERA-SAT ORAS5); Jan 22, 2012 Figure courtesy of Eric de Boisseson EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
10 CERA-SAT land & wave Model: IFS (CY42R1_esuite, April 2016) Observation: SYNOP; ASCAT; NESDIS IMS Assimilation: 2D-Optimal Interpolation (snow depth, screen level); SEKF (soil moisture) Resolution: TL319 Analyses: Archived 3-hourly Model: IFS (CY42R1_esuite, April 2016) Observation: ERA5 observing system Assimilation: 10-member ensemble hybrid DA; 24-hour window) Resolution: 0.5 degree Analyses: Archived 3-hourly EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
11 Outline Introduction Coupled data assimilation & the CERA system CERA-SAT A an overview of the assimilation system Special topic: Sea ice Special topic: Sea level anomaly (SLA) assimilation CERA-SAT Current status & future plans EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 11
12 CERA-SAT Production Production started December 2016; Projected to finish July streams; 2.5+ years each (0.5+ year overlap) ~3 years overlap with CERA-20C, depending on spin-up YOP CERA-SAT Period covered: NRT extension (?) EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
13 Further Planning Produce CERA-SAT QA on the fly; if needed adapt the system Activities on satellite obs. assimilation in CERA-SAT Investigate impact of coupling on assimilation of hyperspectral satellite instruments Investigate the impact of the coupled SST field Assessment of GSRO data reprocessed in ERA-CLIM2 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
14 Thank you. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
15 Extra slides. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
16 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
17 AMSU-A ch 5 Background RMSE (UNCPL -CERA) Background RMSE difference between the CERA system and the operational-like system with respect to AMSU-A channel 5 observations in September EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29,
18 Coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation system (CERA) Schematic for one assimilation cycle A common 24-hour window Atmospheric/ocean obs assimilated simultaneously Outer loop: coupled model computes observation misfits SST computed in NEMO and constrained by relaxation Inner loop: atmospheric and ocean increments are computed in parallel (separate background error, no coupled TLM and adjoint) analysis dynamically consistent with respect to the coupled model
19 CERA-SYSTEM A Coupled system EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 19
20 Earth system modelling at ECMWF Diversity in coupling methodologies between the Earth system components TYPE 1: fully integrated atmosphere/composition composition rewritten for integration same grid and resolution TYPE 2: single executable atmosphere/ocean/waves/sea ice sequential coupling different grids (interpolation) standalone models can be run off-line TYPE 3: coupler information transferred by files not used anymore
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22 CERA-20C: the first ECMWF coupled reanalysis of the 20th century Atmosphere Land Wave Ocean Sea ice Model: IFS/NEMO/LIM2 (CY41R2, Mar 2016) Forcing: SST nudged (HADISST2) Observation: surface conventional, salinity and temperature profiles Assimilation: new CERA system (10-member ensemble coupled hybrid DA) Resolution: T159L91/ORCA1 Z42 Period: P. Laloyaux et al. A coupled data assimilation system for climate reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142(65-78), EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29, 2014
23 CERA-SAT Progress and planning CERA-SAT branch Completed cycle 42r1 merge: Latest coupled model developments (E28 by Kristian) merge: DA coupling developments (CERA-20C inheritance) CERA-SAT prototype now running CERA-SAT configuration In progress General verification Asses/implement 12hr vs 24hr 4DVAR (Oct ) CERA-SAT production Planned to start Jan 2017 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 23
24 In summary CERA-SAT A pilot project for ocean-atmosphere coupled reanalysis of the satellite era is currently being developed within the ERA-CLIM2 project and will be produced at ECMWF next year. EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 24
25 Outline ERA-CLIM2 Coupled system Century Reanalysis CERA-SAT define against CERA-20C Resolution upgrade SLA assimilation Sea ice assimilation (second try) Full obs system as in ERA-5 (Also, diagnostics as per ERA5) Current status - timeline Research plans: Provide clean comparison coupled/uncoupled branches 12hr vs 24 hr assimilation windows Strong/weak constraint 4Dvar [your input here] CERA-SAT implementation EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE and status WEATHER FORECASTS 25
26 Use of near surface measurements - Tropical cyclone Phailin Ocean temperature analysis at 40-meter depth (no scatterometer data in dashed) CERA UNCPL Crucial role of scatterometer data to estimate the ocean state in coupled assimilation Atmospheric observations have the potential to improve ocean analysis Fit to observations is not perfect (vertical resolution, nudge to a daily SST product) Impact of scatterometer surface wind data in the ECMWF coupled assimilation system P. Laloyaux, J-N Thépaut and D. Dee. MWR, 2016 EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS October 29, 2014
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