Seasonal forecast from System 4
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- Edward Beasley
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1 Seasonal forecast from System 4 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
2 Outline Overview of System 4 System 4 forecasts for DJF 2015/2016 Plans for System 5
3 System 4 - Overview
4 System 4 seasonal forecast model IFS (atmosphere) TL255L91 Cy36r4, 0.7 deg grid for physics (operational in Dec 2010) Full stratosphere, enhanced stratospheric physics Singular vectors from EPS system to perturb atmosphere initial conditions Ocean currents coupled to atmosphere boundary layer calculations NEMO (ocean) Global ocean model, 1x1 resolution, 0.3 meridional near equator NEMOVAR (3D-Var) analyses, newly developed. Coupling Fully coupled, no flux adjustments Sea-ice based on sampling previous five years
5 System 4 configuration Real time forecasts: 51 member ensemble forecast to 7 months SST and atmos. perturbations added to each member 15 member ensemble forecast to 13 months Designed to give an outlook for ENSO Only once per quarter (Feb, May, Aug and Nov starts) Back integrations from (30 years) 15 member ensemble every month 15 members extended to 13 months once per quarter
6 Forecasts for DJF 2016/2017
7 ECMWF forecast: DJF sst ACC skill ( ) Ensemble mean
8 ECMWF forecast: ENSO
9 North-Atlantic Oscillation November Forecast PDF Climatology (hindcasts) Analysis (hindcast period)
10 ECMWF forecast: DJF mslp Tercile probabilities ACC skill ( ) Ensemble Mean anomaly
11 Evolution of mslp after winter MSLP in JFM MSLP in DJF
12 ECMWF forecast: DJF z500 Ensemble Mean anomaly Reliability ( ) < lower tercile > upper tercile ACC skill ( ) Tercile summary
13 ECMWF forecast: DJF precip Bias ( ) ACC ( ) Tercile probabilities
14 ECMWF forecast: DJF 2mT Ensemble mean anomaly Reliability ( ) < lower tercile > upper tercile ACC skill ( ) Tercile probabilities
15 ECMWF forecast: DJF T850hPa Tercile probabilities Ensemble mean anomaly
16 Conclusions for DJF 2016/2017 Icelandic high with low pressure over Azores (AO - & NAO-) ==> weakened polar vortex ==> more flow exchanges between Arctic and Europe Weaker westerlies traversing the North-Atlantic, bringing Jetstream southward to give higher storm incidence over South-Europe More than normal precip in Mediterranean region Slight warm anomaly over northern Europe and south of Caucasus
17 System 5 Plans and requests
18 Plans for System 5 Higher atmospheric horizontal resolution: TCO639 L91 Increased hindcast ensemble size to Z75 Ocean (Nemo 3.4.1) Improvements in atmosphere and land surface: LIM2 sea-ice model New ozone scheme (Monge-Sanz 2011 doi: /acp ) Accuracy of ENSO similar, but will have better QBO Improved land surface initialisation: LAI, soil moisture, lakes, etc. Early 2017
19 Adapting S5 delivery Do you need cloud cover? Prognostic variable in ECMWF cloud scheme Currently not archived, but we could Do you need other cloud data? What would you prioritize? Horizontal resolution Vertical resolution Temporal resolution How many ensemble members do you use? If you downscale and would like to make a request about above topics, please leave your addresses so we can contact you in the coming months
20 Adapting C3S delivery Questions about workflow How will you download C3S forecasts? What format do you prefer you data: grib, netcdf, csv? Are operationally disseminated plots useful? Any other requests are welcome
21
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