GEOS-CF: Global Composition Forecasting with NASA GMAO s GEOS System a Focus on Africa

Transcription

1 GEOS-CF: Global Composition Forecasting with NASA GMAO s GEOS System a Focus on Africa Steven Pawson, Christoph Keller, Emma Knowland Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Bryan Duncan Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Daniel Jacob Harvard University WMO-GAW-SAWS International Workshop Seamless Prediction of Air Pollution for Africa: from Regional to Urban Pretoria, South Africa December 4-6, 2017

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3 Themes of GMAO s Research and Products Weather Analysis and Prediction Seasonal-to-Decadal Analysis and Prediction Reanalysis Global Mesoscale Modeling Observing System Science These (non-orthogonal) themes span GMAO s main focus areas Strong emphasis on NASA s Earth Observations (use, support, planning) GEOS is a modular system, encompassing many Earth System components Aerosols are established in production systems; reactive chemistry is an emerging focus

4 Overview of NASA s GEOS-CF System The GEOS-CF (composition forecasting) system combines: The GEOS model/assimilation system (meteorology, transport, ) Aerosols from NASA s GOCART module Dynamic emissions modules (flow-dependent; observation constrained) The GEOS-Chem chemical mechanism Many (NASA) observations of physical and chemical parameters It is being run in near-real time as a research project; target date for a routine production system is April 2018 Unrestricted data access is planned (NASA policy) via Servers Currently, O 3 is the only reactive chemical species being assimilated; development is underway to assimilate NO x, CO, and other gases

5 Various NASA observations used in GMAO s constituent work Distributions of fires (Biomass Burning Emissions) Land-surface vegetation and ocean color (Emissions, dry deposition, )

6 Surface Ozone from GEOS model with GEOS-Chem Results can be validated at surface stations in North America and Europe The analyses and five-day forecasts are shown in red; surface observations are black Note the diurnal ozone variations and the synoptic changes as weather systems move through Providence, RI: Obs (black); forecast (red)

7 Results can be validated at surface stations in North America and Europe Surface NO 2 from GEOS model with GEOS-Chem The analyses and five-day forecasts are shown in redyellow (near-far); surface observations are black Note the diurnal variations and the synoptic changes as weather systems move through (as well as weekends in emissions) Zurich, CH: Obs (black); forecast (red-yellow)

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9 Some Examples Over Africa: Isoprene and Ozone

10 Some Examples Over Africa: NO 2, O 3 and PM2.5 Lagos NO 2 O 3 PM2.5 Pretoria

11 Some Examples Over Africa: HAQI (PM2.5, O 3, NO 2, CO)

12 Summary GEOS-CF, with global ~25-km resolution, is being run each day GEOS-CF Composition forecasts: Show skill at five days over North America and Europe (weather) Benefit from our knowledge of emissions in those regions Agree that African air quality is dominated by regional/seasonal features Dust and smoke emissions are major factors Ozone and other gases have regional importance which is uncertain Validation over data-sparse regions such as Africa is problematic: Existence/availability of in-situ observing capabilities Availability of realistic (anthropogenic) emissions databases GEOS-CF data will soon be freely distributed via openly accessible servers

13 Answers to THE Questions Who funds this activity within this project? NASA. Funding for core NASA/GMAO activities covers global Earth System analysis and modeling/assimilation work to benefit NASA observations; GEOS-Chem implementation via competed funding (Jacob-Pawson). Who would be stakeholders and users of data and information? The global community. GMAO can provide global fields (analyses, 5-day forecasts, emissions), currently at 25km resolution; looking at enhanced complexity (resolution; ensembles;...). Are there specific protocols to follow when using the data? Data will be freely available (target date: April 2018), through NASA data distribution policies. Follow normal scientific protocol: citation; co-authorship when appropriate; careful acknowledgement of the GMAO.

14 The End Thank you for including us in this workshop Contact Details: