Weather Information for Europe 3 May 2018

Transcription

1 Weather Information for Europe 3 May 2018 Weatherproofing the network A collaborative approach Jaakko Nuottokari EUMETNET WG AVIMET Chair Head of Aviation and Defence Finnish Meteorological Institute Jaakko.Nuottokari@fmi.fi EUMETNET: The Network of European Meteorological Services

2 Aviation Support Programme Some of the key tasks are: Representing the aviation MET community at various European institutions, industry bodies, and stakeholder and technical groups, undertaking lobbying and reporting developments to our members Coordinating R&D and deployment activities such as SESAR Identifying new opportunities for collaborative research and service provision for all our Members Fostering collaborative approach between Members for post-deployment service provision and identifying risks and issues that may require change management and mitigation. EUMETNET is a grouping of 36 European National Meteorological Services that provides a framework to organise cooperative programmes between its members in meteorology and related fields. These activities include observing systems, data processing, basic forecasting products, research, development and training.

3 The State of Things in Europe In 67% of the 36 EUMETNET member countries the NMHS organisation provides the MWO function, in 25% this is the ATS organization In only 19% of members all MWO, AMO and AMS functions are being provided by the NMHS organization There are many MET ANSPs with varying responsibilities and differing cost structures ECMWF (intergovernmental organisation), DWD, Météo-France and UK Met Office run global models, some other national MET services run limited area models Green MET ANSP = NMHS organization Blue MET ANSP = ATS organization Red MET ANSP = mix

4 Current Service Provision - Background Regulated and SES certified MET services according to ICAO Annex 3 EASA 373/2017 from 2 Jan 2020 onward National regulation Specific ICAO & WMO documentation Traditional products METAR, TAF, SIGMET, low level forecast (e.g. GAMET or Significant Weather Chart, SWC), aerodrome warnings, etc. Services via State designated, certified and audited MET ANSP Commercial added value services Tailoring to user needs, impact-based products & specific needs Delivered by commercial MET service provider or MET ANSP

5 Current Service Provision - Delivery Regulated MET information delivery and data format is also regulated TAC -> IWXXM Via AFTN -> AMHS -> PENS EBBR Z 1106/ KT 9999 FEW020TCU PROB40 TEMPO 1112/ SHRA BECMG 1201/ BR PROB30 TEMPO 1203/ BCFG BECMG 1206/ KT 8000 NSW Global dissemination according to the lowest common denominator Used automatically by e.g. Flight Planning, ATM and Airlines IWXXM will enable easier inclusion of MET information into ATM systems National & regional MET-Briefing system, portals and websites SESAR Deployment data discoverable in the SWIM Registry via the MET- GATE (SESAR Deployment IP 2015_069_AF5) Commercial solutions dissemination tailored to user needs

6 Future Products DEVELOPMENT OF SERVICES

7 Deployment of the consolidation and translation of European adverse weather forecasts for aviation Turbulence, icing, convection & winter weather Weighted blending method or harmonisation at product borders For execution and short term planning Verification of harmonised products Collecting observation / measurement data SESAR Deployment IP 2015_068_AF5 MOGREPS + AROME = 24 members COSMO + AROME = 32 members Three icing severity levels: Light (green), Moderate (yellow), Severe (red) Turbulence severity indicator (example visual.)

8 Radar composite for 3D convection Useful for hotspot mitigation in and around thunderstorms where the height and extent of a convective cell can be identified European wide with intended 5 and 15minute update rate available via MET- GATE via the SWIM Registry 15min update over Europe 5min over hub areas (512 x 512 x 12 km³) 500m horizontal resol. 250m vertical resol. Large, central panel is a xy-crosssection at 2km constant altitude SESAR deployment IP 2015_067_AF5

9 Improvements in the World Area Forecasts Partnerships with organisations who operate a wind unlinking service based on high resolution winds Uplinked winds can be used by the FMS in cruise and descent to improve fuel consumption and time of arrival calculations WAFC wind speed and direction at 200hPa at 1.25 resolution WAFC wind speed and direction at 200hPa at 0.25 resolution

10 Local Forecasts Pilot Common Project regulation 716/2014 Meteorological information and aids for ATM impact at en-route, approach and tower level Meteorological information supporting En Route/Approach ATC process or aids involving the relevant MET information, translation processes to derive constraints for weather and converting this information in an ATM impact; the system capability mainly targets a time to decision horizon between 20 minutes and 7 days Implemented by 2025

11 Cost for regulated aeronautical meteorological service provision is cost recovered from aviation users NM or any other aviation user can have in principle free access to all regulated services from certified MET ANSPs that are quality controlled without additional cost for aviation purposes Under EU 2017/373 and EU 716/2014 new services will be delivered There should be oversight for aeronautical meteorological services provided to the network manager

12 Room for Improvement Data formats (e.g. TAF) very old We can deliver so much more today, but need harmonized user requirements in Europe Users are not always aware of what can be delivered and how impacts are best mitigated compared to the US Unlike the FAA in the US, Europe has no centralized requirements setting facility for the continent and NSAs lack meteorological competency Very large differences between States on resources, capability and mandate Users not fully engaged to weather risk mitigation, even though it is the biggest cause for delay in Europe!

13 Solutions We need to Deepen cooperation between MET ANSPs and the user communities Improve harmonisation in regulation and oversight In order to have user-driven requirements Educate and communicate our ability to accurately predict the weather and its inherent uncertainty Develop impact-based models and procedures where MET is an enabler of CDM Recognise the true added value of meteorological information and services

14 Let s work together to minimise weather impact to your operations