The gains of an aligned weather impact management. Tzvetomir BLAJEV, NM Safety Unit

Transcription

1 The gains of an aligned weather impact management Tzvetomir BLAJEV, NM Safety Unit

2 2 One can t do anything about the weather!? Two thirds of the WX delays are avoidable (FAA)?

3 In this presentation PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION 2013 survey POTENTIAL PERFORMANCE GAINS Act on time BEST PRACTICE PROCESS Weather resilience

4 In this presentation PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION 2013 survey POTENTIAL PERFORMANCE GAINS Act on time BEST PRACTICE PROCESS Weather resilience

5 Severe WX risk management survey 5 Risks Two different yet interdependent risks FLIGHT SAFETY RISK Airborne in-flight safety risk Hazard encounter risk - e.g. damage, injuries Knock-on flight safety risk- e.g. fuel shortage, crew distraction ATCO excessive overload risk irrespective of sector overload FLIGHT EFFICIENCY RISK Flight delays or even cancellations

6 Severe WX risk management survey 6 En-route Strategy A&B: No Regulation/STAM Flight Plan Trajectory In Flight, Crew Avoidance Trajectory In Flight Crew Avoidance => AVOIDANCE DELAY

7 Severe WX risk management survey 7 En-route Strategy C&D: Regulation/STAM FORECAST Flight Plan Trajectory For the regulated flights: ATCO Overload Risk Management => CAPACITY DELAY

8 Severe WX risk management survey 8 En-route Strategy C&D: Regulation/STAM For the non-regulated flights: Flight Plan Trajectory In Flight, Crew Avoidance Trajectory In Flight Crew Avoidance => AVOIDANCE DELAY

9 Severe WX risk management survey 9 En-route Strategy E (FAA) - Optimised Avoidance Delay Optimised In Flight Avoidance Trajectory FORECAST Flight Plan Trajectory In Flight, Crew Avoidance Trajectory In Flight Crew Avoidance => AVOIDANCE DELAY

10 Severe WX risk management survey 10 Conclusions On the coherence of risk management Coherent in-flight avoidance procedures and practices - in accordance with ICAO PANS-ATM and PANS-OPS; Inconsistent tactical and pre-tactical strategies in the majority of cases severe weather risk management is not applied at pretactical level Non-interoperable tactical and pre-tactical strategies ANSPs have developed and deployed different capabilities;

11 Severe WX risk management survey 11 Conclusions On the performance of the European severe weather management structure Sufficiently managed Hazard Encounter Risk Management of Knock-on Flight Safety Risk can be improved diversions, fuel management Not sufficiently managed ATCO Excessive Overload Risk Sub-optimal performance - missed opportunities (FAA - two thirds of the weather related delay is avoidable) and use of the available best practices

12 Severe WX risk management survey 12 Impediments Lack of capabilities Tailored MET products; Accuracy of the forecast; Precision of the detection; Granularity of the referenced airspace; Better vertical plan view; Indication of the probability; Impact assessment;

13 Severe WX risk management survey 13 Impediments Staff Insufficient competence - (human performance reasons), e.g. lack of training; Lack of procedures - With few exceptions, OPS supervisors are required to exercise their best judgment regarding the need to manage the anticipated impact of severe weather on the ATC operations.

14 Severe WX risk management survey 14 Impediments Lack of or inefficient incentives For ANSPs to introduce risk based strategies risk based management, although most efficient, means acting when sometimes in hindsight unnecessary; For ANSPs to optimise Network performance when negatively affecting local performance For ANSPs to accept Network strategies affecting their cost efficiency For MET Service providers to go beyond ICAO products For FMPs to apply strategic flow management at pre-tactical level

15 In this presentation PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION 2013 survey POTENTIAL PERFORMANCE GAINS Act on time BEST PRACTICE PROCESS Weather resilience

16 Timely application of traffic regulations Gains (1) - delays 16 16

17 Timely application of traffic regulations Gains (3) - distribution 17 17

18 In this presentation PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION 2013 survey POTENTIAL PERFORMANCE GAINS Act on time BEST PRACTICE PROCESS Weather resilience

19 Weather resilience process MONITORING Local monitoring Network monitoring Sharing anticipation RESILIENCE THREAT DETECTION 45 knots 3000ft wind at an airport ALERTING Forecasting the local & network impact Sharing of weather anticipation Sharing of forecasted impacts RESILIENCE ALERTS High Risk of Capacity Reduction by 20% WARNING COLLABORATIVE PLANNING Network Briefings Warning raised after coordinating alerts Decide on pre-alert crisis phase RESILIENCE WARNING TO TRIGGER PLANNING Assessing the local impact Building response plan Coordinating response RESPONSE PLAN Warning for Capacity Reduction by 15% Capacity Reduction by 10% EXECUTION Implementation of the plan Monitoring and adjustment Recovery NETWORK PERFORMANCE

20 Questions? 20 20