Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute Reinforcing Bar Forecast. August Version

Transcription

1 Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute Reinforcing Bar Forecast August 2018 Version Copyright 2018 Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute. Reproduction or further distribution of this report is not authorized without the express written permission of the Concrete Reinforcing Steel Institute.

2 Contents Pages 3-4 Basis for the CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Page 5 Description of Dodge Forecast Regions Page 6 Domestic Reinforcing Bar Consumption, 2016 and 2017 Page 7 Domestic Reinforcing Bar consumption, 2007 through 2017 Page 8 Domestic Reinforcing Bar and Portland Cement Consumption, 1945 through 2017 Page 9 Domestic Reinforcing Bar Consumption with Forecast History, 2012 through 2018 Page 10 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast USA Total, 2014 through 2023 Page 11 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge Northeast Region, 2013 through 2018 Page 12 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge Midwest Region, 2013 through 2018 Page 13 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge South Atlantic Region, 2013 through 2018 Page 14 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge South Central Region, 2013 through 2018 Page 15 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge West Region, 2013 through 2018 Page 16 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Office Building Market, 2014 through 2023 Page 17 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Healthcare Building Market, 2014 through 2023 Page 18 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Multi Family Building Market, 2014 through 2023 Page 19 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Highways & Streets Market, 2014 through 2023 Page 20 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Sewer & Water Systems Market, 2014 through 2023 August 2018 Version

3 Basis for the CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast The CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast is derived from various data sources and presents CRSI s best understanding of current and forecasted market conditions. The starting point for the CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast is the prior years domestic consumption of reinforcing bars as reported by the Steel Manufacturers Association in the SMA-First River Long Products Market Report. Forecasted Portland cement growth rates, as reported by the Portland Cement Association, are then utilize d to project the reinforcing bar consumption through the forecast horizon. The Portland Cement Association growth rates are used in the CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast, as there is a long history of a high correlation between cement consumption and reinforcing bar consumption, see chart on page 8 of this report. The Portland Cement growth rate data is a weighted calculation performed by the Portland Cement Association and takes into account factors such as projected market conditions, intensity in various geographic and building use applications, among other factors. Values presented in this report are in U.S. tons. The following notes relate to the source and version of data in specific cha rts & tables presented in this report: Page 5 Descriptions of the five Dodge Market Regions from the Dodge Construction Outlook Report. Pages 6 & 7 - The domestic consumption of reinforcing bars, as reported by the Steel Manufacturers Association in the SMA-First River Long Products Market Report. The data presented represents the net domestic shipments, imports, and total domestic consumption of reinforcing bars for the years indicated. August 2018 Version

4 Page 8 - Correlation between (red) Portland Cement consumption and (blue) reinforcing bar consumption since 1945 to demonstrate the high correlation between the annual consumption of the two materials. Page 9 - A 5 year look back at the accuracy of the CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast. For each given year, the blue column on the chart (gray for current year) represents the actual domestic consumption of reinforcing bars (current forecast for current year in gray), and the preceding 5 green columns represent the forecasted reinforcing bar consumption from the November forecast for the preceding 1 to 5 years for each given year. Page 10 - USA total Reinforcing Bar Forecast. Derived from the actual domestic reinforc ing bar consumption for 2014 through 2017 as reported by the Steel Manufacturers Association in the SMA-First River Long Products Market Report, and the forecasted Portland Cement growth rates, as reported by the Portland Cement Association for the period through 2023 taken from the August 2018 PCA Summer Forecast, and the forecasted contract value increase, as reported by Dodge Data & Analytics in the November 2017 version of the 2018 Dodge Construction Outlook Report. Pages 11 to 15 - Reinforcing Bar Forecasts for each of the five Dodge market regions. Derived from the calculated reinforcing bar consumption in each Dodge market region for through 2017 as calculated from the Portland Cement Association in the April 2018 version of the CRSI/PCA Trend Analysis Report, and the forecasted Total Construction growth rate, as reported by Dodge Data & Analytics in the November 2017 version of the 2018 Dodge Construction Outlook Report. Pages 16 to 20 - Reinforcing Bar Forecasts for the three CRSI target markets, Office, Healthcare, and Multi Family, plus the public markets of Highways & Streets, and Sewer & Water Systems. Derived from the calculated reinforcing bar consumption in each of the CRSI target markets for 2014 through 2017 as calculated from the Portland Cement Association in the April 2018 version of the CRSI/PCA Trend Analysis Report, and the forecasted growth rate in each respective market segment, as reported by the Portland Cement Association for the period 2018 through 2023 taken from the August 2018 PCA Summer Forecast, and the forecasted floor area increase (contract value for public markets), as reported by Dodge Data & Analytics in the November 2017 version of the 2018 Dodge Construction Outlook Report. August 2018 Version

5 Description of Dodge Forecast Regions The following graphics indicate the states covered by each of the five Dodge Forecast Regions which are used to generate regional forecasts on pages 11 through 15 in this report. August 2018 Version

6 Domestic Reinforcing Bar Consumption, 2016 and Percent Change 2017 Net Domestic Shipments First Quarter 1,582, % 1,684,299 Plus: Imports First Quarter 562, % 627,539 Domestic Consumption First Quarter 2,145, % 2,311,838 Net Domestic Shipments Second Quarter 1,814, % 1,747,296 Plus: Imports Second Quarter 465, % 366,166 Domestic Consumption Second Quarter 2,280, % 2,113,462 Net Domestic Shipments Third Quarter 1,609, % 1,904,939 Plus: Imports Third Quarter 681, % 298,383 Domestic Consumption Third Quarter 2,291, % 2,203,322 Net Domestic Shipments Fourth Quarter 1,672, % 1,749,931 Plus: Imports Fourth Quarter 398, % 192,900 Domestic Consumption Fourth Quarter 2,070, % 1,942,831 Net Domestic Shipments Full Year 6,678, % 7,086,465 Plus: Imports Full Year 2,108, % 1,484,988 Domestic Consumption Full Year 8,786, % 8,571,453 August 2018 Version

7 Domestic Reinforcing Bar Consumption, 2007 Through 2017 August 2018 Version

8 Domestic Reinforcing Bar and Portland Cement Consumption August 2018 Version

9 Domestic Reinforcing Bar Consumption with Forecast History August 2018 Version

10 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast USA Total August 2018 Version

11 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge Northeast Region August 2018 Version

12 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge Midwest Region August 2018 Version

13 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge South Atlantic Region August 2018 Version

14 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge South Central Region August 2018 Version

15 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Dodge West Region August 2018 Version

16 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Office Building Market August 2018 Version

17 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Healthcare Building Market August 2018 Version

18 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Multi Family Building Market August 2018 Version

19 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Highways & Streets Market August 2018 Version

20 CRSI Reinforcing Bar Forecast Water & Sewer Systems Market August 2018 Version