UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA OUTLOOK (FULL REPORT) Wednesday, April 18, 2018

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1 T-storm Weather Summary Coolness continues over the next week in much of the central U.S., most likely producing the coldest April since 1907 in the Corn Belt, but followed by seasonable to mild weather from late next week forward. Except for rain and snow in northern areas today, the Corn Belt will be dry over the next week as substantial rains pass to the south Friday-Sunday, alleviating drought on HRW wheat and bringing rain to the Delta. Pockets of rain occasionally unfold within the milder pattern over April 24 - May 2, most likely producing near-normal rainfall within a wide area of the central U.S. Otherwise, marked drying continues for the southern half of Brazil corn. T-storm Weather Highlights No change: 0.50 to 1.50 alleviates drought for most HRW wheat Fri.-Sat., then affects the Delta Sunday. No change: another 0.25 to 0.75 of rain is probable for drought-stricken HRW later next week, as well through the end of the month would leave KS and OK around #30 driest in April of the last 124 years. No change: except for snow in northern areas today, most of the Corn Belt will be dry over the next week. April in the Corn Belt may rank as the coldest since 1907, including expectations of warming next week. 54% of second-crop corn in Brazil had less than half its normal rain last 14 days; drying continues this area. Model Notes None. Page Description Today's United Normal States Crop Discussion Phase Table South United America States Discussion Today's South Normal America Crop Discussion Phase Table Supporting Pages 1

2 Central U.S. Weather Outlook (p. 6-12) Temperatures moderate but average slightly to moderately below-normal over the next 7 to 10 days as cool fronts pass and air masses are initially kept cold by extensive snowpack in the north. Some warming next week is only expected to be brief, but a seasonable to mild period follows from late next week or weekend forward as Arctic air loses its grip on the U.S. and all snowpack has eroded, leading to a period of seasonable to mild weather with maximums mostly in the 50s-60s north and 70s-80s south. UNITED STATES DISCUSSION Regarding precipitation, a strong system produces 0.50 to 1.50 of rain on drought-stricken HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains Fri.-Sat., and similar amounts Sun. in the Delta. The rest of the central U.S. will be fairly dry over the next week, except for light snow today within the northern third of the Corn Belt, but including a narrow swath of 4 to 8 accumulations in / near the IA-MN border. Starting next Tue.-Wed. and more-so over the second half of next week, several waves of energy pass as the jet stream aligns near the central U.S. The exact setup will take days to determine, but pockets of rain and t-storms are likely within a wide area over Apr May 2, including a low chance for heavy totals dependent on exactly how each wave develops, and also including additional rainfall in droughtstricken HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains (another 0.25 to 0.75 most likely). The end result is for topsoil temperatures to sufficiently warm for planting in 7 to 14 days, but unlikely accompanied by completely dry weather. Note that with 1.50 through the end of the month, KS and OK would still rank in the top quarter of the driest Aprils of the last 124 years. Recent Weather Temperatures remained much colder than normal across the northern half of the central U.S. yesterday, but soared into the 80s-90s across much of the central / southern Plains and Delta. A swath of rain and snow developed overnight between each air mass, including parts of IA, MN, NE and SD. Crop and Soil Moisture Overview (p ) Except for the drought-stricken central and southern Plains, most of the central U.S. was wetter than normal in recent days, weeks, and months. The central U.S. also unusually cold in recent weeks, which will cause April to rank among very coldest of the last 124 years in the Corn Belt and northern Plains, and potentially coldest since 1907 and % of U.S. HRW wheat production is experiencing 180- day drought, including 49% and 19% with less than one-half and one-quarter of normal; only 31% of U.S. winter wheat was rated good and excellent Sunday, which is #2 lowest for the week since Central and Eastern United States Proportion of National Production By Region Region Corn Soy. HRW Wheat SRW Wheat Spring Wheat Corn Belt 63% 60% 2% 51% 14% Delta 5% 12% 0% 24% 0% Plains Central 17% 11% 59% 0% 0% North 8% 11% 17% 0% 74% South 2% 0% 22% 0% 0% East / Southeast 4% 5% 0% 25% 0% Other 0% 0% 12% Data source: USDA ( ) Click here to review our county-level corn, soybean, and wheat production maps over

3 Weather Outlook Scattered t-storms linger in second-crop corn areas of Brazil over the next day or two, then end as the onset of the dry season begins. Areas to the south received little rain in recent weeks and remain drier than normal with minimal rainfall over the next 10 to 14 days, potentially leading to dryness stress in and adjacent Parana, including ~50% of production. SOUTH AMERICA DISCUSSION In Argentina, a stormy period begins Thu.-Fri. and then further unfolds over the following 10 days as 2.00 to 4.00 of rain affects a wide area, which is considerably wetter than normal for the second half of April; soil moisture improves for upcoming wheat planting, but occasionally slows both corn and soybean harvesting and wheat planting prospects. Recent Weather A few t-storms recurred in northern second-crop corn areas yesterday, but most of Brazil was dry. Crop and Soil Moisture Discussion (p ) Only 22% of second-crop corn in Brazil was drier than normal over the 30-day period ending Sunday, but topsoil dryness is increasing from a lack of rain central and south with 63% having been drier than normal over the last two weeks, including 54% with less than of normal, indicating a sharp north-south rainfall dry-wet gradient has developed within the second-crop corn belt. 61% of Argentina wheat production was near or wetter than normal over the last two weeks, but more will be needed to offset medium- and long-term drought, and especially in western Buenos Aires and La Pampa where rains missed over the last several months. Argentina Brazil Proportion of National Production By Region Argentina Corn (1st) Corn (2 nd ) Soy. Sunflower Wheat Central 51% 53% 55% 11% 42% North 0% 30% 9% 11% 4% South 49% 18% 36% 78% 54% Brazil Region Center-West 8% 66% 46% Northeast 15% 3% 8% South 45% 22% 35% Southeast 29% 6% 7% Data sources: Argentina Ministry of Ag., Livestock and Fish. (2014/ /17), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics ( ) Click here to review crop production maps of Argentina, and click here for Brazil. 3

4 TODAY'S NORMAL CROP PHASE Argentina Brazil United States Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Normal Crop Crop Crop Phase Phase Phase Corn, Early-Planted Corn, Late-Planted Harvesting Maturing Corn, First Crop Corn, Second Crop Harvesting Silking Corn Planting Soybeans, First Crop Soybeans, Second Crop Harvesting Filling Soybeans, Northern Areas Soybeans, Southern Areas Out of Season Harvesting Soybeans Planting Sunflowers Out of Season Spring Wheat Planting Winter Wheat Out of Season Winter Wheat Planting Source: Various USDA website sources Hard Red Winter Wheat Soft Red Winter Wheat Jointing / Heading Jointing / Heading 4

5 United States forecast maps begin on the next page 5

6 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA Chart not available today 6

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11 Kansas Rainfall * Data Source: MRCC, NCDC * 2018 includes unofficial observations over April 1-16, Plus 1.50 through April 30 11

12 Oklahoma Rainfall * Data Source: MRCC, NCDC * 2018 includes unofficial observations over April 1-16, Plus 1.50 through April 30 12

13 United States supporting maps and charts begin on the next page 13

14 CORN SOYBEANS SPRING WHEAT WINTER WHEAT (HARD RED) WINTER WHEAT (SOFT RED) PERIOD / SOIL PROXY LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) LAST 7 DAYS (HIGH TOPSOIL) LAST 14 DAYS (TOPSOIL) LAST 30 DAYS (SUBSOIL) LAST 60 DAYS (DEEP SUBSOIL) LAST 90 DAYS (AG. DROUGHT) LAST 180 DAYS (DROUGHT) Temperature, Dep. From Normal ( F) PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE, WEIGHTED BY UNITED STATES CROP PRODUCTION AT THE COUNTY LEVEL, VALID ONE DAY AGO (04/17/18) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 10% 10% 6% 12% 22% Precipitation, Proportion of Crop Production That Were Drier Than Normal, Normal, and Wetter Than Normal 28% 17% 22% 35% 18% 33% 66% 9% 7% 5% 10% 22% 28% 16% 19% 31% 17% 31% 63% 0% 1% 3% 7% 20% 30% 38% 26% 44% 51% 5% 40% 55% DROU 1% % % % SUBS 20% 75% DRY (less than 75% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) 21% 15% 51% 60% 56% 67% 67% 63% 3% 2% 5% 11% 21% 64% 86% 76% 73% 78% 80% 21% 78% 68% 68% 69% 16% 60% 61% 60% 16% 55% 7% 9% 19% 39% 42% 46% 41% 41% 27% 26% 27% 28% 30% 22% 25% 24% 18% NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of USDA county-level crop production data weighted by 4-km by 4-km precipitation grids. Production data is averaged for each county over the last five years to develop weights and included at least 99% of production each year. HRW wheat is defined as winter wheat in and adjacent the Plains; SRW wheat is defined as winter wheat along and east of the Mississippi River. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 14

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16 Departure ( F) UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA April Temperature The U.S. Corn Belt Series Projection Note: the Corn Belt is defined as IL-IN-IA-MO-MN-NE-OH weighted by area Data sources: Midwest Regional Climate Center, National Climatic Data Center * 2018 includes unofficial observations over April 1-16, and a departure of approximately -2 F from normal the rest of the month 16

17 Departure From Average ( F) UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA April Temperature The U.S. Northern Plains 20 Coldest, Actual 2018 Projection* #1 coldest April #20 coldest April Note: Northern Plains s defined as MT-ND-SD, weighted by area Data sources: Midwest Regional Climate Center, National Climatic Data Center * 2018 includes unofficial observations over April 1-16, and a slight departure of approximately -2 F from normal the rest of the month 17

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19 03/18 03/23 03/28 04/02 04/07 04/12 04/17 04/22 04/27 05/02 05/07 05/12 05/17 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA PRECIPITATION WEIGHTED BY U.S. HRW WHEAT PRODUCTION, PROPORTION OF CROP THAT WAS VERY DRY * 5-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A 4-KM 2 PRECIPITATION GRID, PRIOR 180-DAY PERIODS ENDING AT 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC); A PROXY OF DROUGHT 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Series * Dry is defined as the proportion of crop that received less than 50% of average precipitation over the period. The proportions is calculated by a proprietary Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis. Visit for more information. 19

20 Proportion (%) UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA U.S. Winter Wheat Rated Good and Excellent Week of April % 95% 80% 68% 70% 77% 79% 65% 72% 60% 59% 52% 54% 47% 54% 55% 40% 38% 27% 31% 20% 12% 8% 13% 0% AR IL IN MI MO OH ID OR WA CO KS NE MT SD OK TX CA NC U.S. Corn Belt and Delta Pacific Northwest Plains (Central) Plains (Northern) Plains (Southern) Other States Data Source: NASS 20

21 The South America section begins on the next page 21

22 CORN CROP #1 (EARLY-PLANTED) CORN CROP #2 (LATE-PLANTED) SOYBEANS SUNFLOWERS WINTER WHEAT PERIOD / SOIL PROXY LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT Temperature, Dep. From Normal ( F) PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE, WEIGHTED BY 2014/ /17 ARGENTINA CROP PRODUCTION AT THE COUNTY LEVEL, VALID TWO DAYS AGO (04/16/18) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) DROU SUBS Precipitation, Proportion of Crop Production Drier Than Normal, Normal, and Wetter Than Normal 32% 35% 44% 51% 53% 72% 70% 13% 17% % 26% 35% % 39% % DRY (less than 75% of average) 88% 85% 92% 88% WET (more than 125% of average) 95% 94% 28% 44% 37% 6% NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) 7% 3% 5% 0% 6% 0% 90% 94% 9% 1% 6% 0% 25% 25% 7% 15% 8% 1% 57% 63% 61% 81% 89% 28% 87% 96% 98% 13% 11% 28% 24% 27% 30% 18% 11% 13% 4% 1% 2% 0% 53% 40% 5% 7% 3% 5% 3% 0% 2% 0% Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina M inistry of Agriculture department-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. Corn Crop #1 is defined as total corn planted prior to December (production data was weighted by approximate planted area via Weekly Grain Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange over the last three years); Corn Crop #2 is total corn planted in December or later. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 22

23 CORN (CROP #1) CORN (CROP #2) SOYBEANS SUGAR PERIOD / SOIL PROXY LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT LAST 7 DAYS / HIGH TOPSOIL LAST 14 DAYS / TOPSOIL LAST 30 DAYS / SUBSOIL LAST 60 DAYS / DEEP SUBSOIL LAST 90 DAYS / AG. DROUGHT Temperature, Dep. From Normal ( F) PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE, WEIGHTED BY 2013/ /16 BRAZIL CROP PRODUCTION AT THE COUNTY LEVEL, VALID TWO DAYS AGO (04/16/18) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 19% Precipitation, Proportion of Crop Production Drier Than Normal, Normal, and Wetter Than Normal 30% 33% 67% 69% 16% 22% 35% 63% 69% DROU 73% 15% 12% % % 9% SUBS % 38% 10% DRY (less than 75% of average) NORMAL (75% to 125% of average) WET (more than 125% of average) 59% 72% 17% 23% 27% 60% 66% 57% 53% 72% 72% 33% 72% 66% 63% 62% 61% 22% 25% 21% 15% 22% 24% 26% 12% 15% 17% 15% 18% 20% 9% 12% 12% 15% 5% 7% 11% 7% 3% 5% 2% Data is developed with a proprietary Geographic Information System analysis of Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and include at least 99%, 98%, and 97% of corn, soybean, and sugar production. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 23

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25 03/04 03/09 03/14 03/19 03/24 03/29 04/03 04/08 04/13 04/18 UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA BRAZIL PRECIPITATION, WEIGHTED BY CORN (CROP #2) PRODUCTION, PROPORTION OF CROP THAT WAS DRIER THAN NORMAL THREE-YEAR AVERAGE COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, PRIOR PERIODS ENDING AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Last 7 Days Last 14 Days Last 30 Days Last 60 Days Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina Ministry of Agriculture department-level crop production and Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics municipality-level crop production weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over 2014/ /17 in Argentina and 2013/ /2016 in Brazil to develop weights and includes at least 98% of production each year. "Drier than normal", "normal", and "wetter than normal" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 25

26 PRECIPITATION (PERCENT OF NORMAL), WEIGHTED BY BRAZIL SECOND-CROP CORN PRODUCTION 2014/ /17 COUNTY-LEVEL PRODUCTION WEIGHTED BY A PRECIPITATION GRID, VALID TWO DAYS AGO (04/16/18) AT 6 AM CST (1200 UTC) PERIOD / SOIL PROXY Last 7 Days / High Topsoil Moisture Last 14 Days / Topsoil Moisture Last 30 Days / Subsoil Moisture Last 60 Days / Deep Subsoil Moisture Last 90 Days / Agricultural Drought 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% PROPORTION OF PRODUCTION Soil Moisture: Intensely Dry Very Dry Slightly Dry Normal Slightly Wet Very Wet Intensely Wet Precipitation (Percent of Normal): Last 7 Days Last 14 Days Last 30 Days Last 60 Days Last 90 Days (0% - 25%) (25% - 50%) (50% - 75%) (75% - 125%) (125% - 200%) (200% - 300%) (300% +) 44% 12% 12% 24% 7% 0% 0% 36% 17% 9% 22% 15% 1% 0% 1% 10% 12% 59% 18% 0% 0% 0% 3% 13% 72% 12% 0% 0% 0% 4% 31% 62% 3% 0% 0% Data is developed with a proprietary geographic information system analysis of Argentina Ministry of Agriculture department-level crop production data weighted by precipitation grids from the Climate Prediction Center and World Ag Weather. Production data is averaged for each county over the last three years to develop weights and includes at least 99% of production each year. Corn Crop #1 is defined as total corn planted prior to December (production data was weighted by approximate planted area via Weekly Grain Reports from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange over the last three years); Corn Crop #2 is total corn planted in December or later. "Dry", "Normal", and "Wet" are crops that received less than 75%, 75% - 125%, and more than 125% of its average precipitation. 26

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