California Nevada River Forecast Center Updates
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1 California Nevada River Forecast Center Updates Alert Users Group Meeting Riverside County Flood Control and Water Conservation District October 16 th, 2014 Alan Haynes Service Coordination Hydrologist NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA
2 CNRFC Update Big picture what s happening in the NWS Summary of past year s hydrology and forecast issues CNRFC operations overview & changes for WY 2015 CNRFC development activities
3 Massive Computational Changes peak of 208 teraflops in FY13 to 1900 teraflops by end of FY15 a 900% increase in capacity! This will enable implementation of higher resolution models NWS GFS model horizontal resolution going to ~10km in Dec 2014 (currently 27km) Expect further improvements in model physics, data assimilation, boundary layer, and additional resolution improvements Improvements should translate into improved hydro model inputs
4 National Water Center Construction of National Water Center Building completed Feb 2014, occupied Apr 2014 Initial operating capability expected by Apr 2015 (45 people) Baseline operating capability expected by FY 2019 (165 people) Full Operational capability expected by FY 2024 (244 people) Facilitate NWS hydrologic services vision to address challenges Summit-to-sea & treetop-to-bedrock hydrologic analysis deliver integrated products and services National Water Center March 11, 2014
5 Have We Been in a Drought?
6 Cumulative Effects on Storage Oct 2011 Oct 2012 Oct 2011
7 Cumulative Effects on Storage
8 Drought-Related Requests Media requests (info, interviews, outlooks, etc) More calls, meetings, presentations Close scrutiny of data and forecasts for low flows Increased interest in water balance information Expanded interest in ensemble forecasts
9 Drought-Related Requests Media requests (info, interviews, outlooks, etc) More calls, meetings, presentations Close scrutiny of data and forecasts for low flows Increased interest in water balance information Expanded interest in ensemble forecasts
10 Sketch of Operations Observed Weather Model Run Time Weather Forecasts Forecaster QPF 0-5 days Model-Based QPF 5-14 days Temperature 0-14 days Climate-Based Climate-Based Timeline He Streamflow This period better characterizes uncertainty to the degree that there is skill in the human and numerical model forecasts. Model States
11 Sketch of Operations Feather River Lake Oroville 5-Day Inflow forecast Feather River Lake Oroville 2015 WY Accumulate Volume
12 Ensemble Traces in csv Format
13 Burn Areas Burn scars can affect runoff Debris flows are biggest threat Intensity-driven Scale of burn impacts usually sub-resolution Impacts wear off over time
14 Changes for WY 2015 Operations Calibration focus areas were: Yuba & Feather Southern California New Middle and South Fork of Yuba sub-basins New Santa Ana & Santa Margarita sub-basins New Reservoir Inflows New simulation points
15 New Reservoir Inflows Jackson Meadows Bowman Reservoir Fordyce Lake Lake Spaulding Scott s Flat Reservoir Merle Collins Reservoir Rollins Reservoir Vail Lake
16 New Simulation Points EB of North Fork Feather River Middle Fork of Yuba River at Our House South Fork of Yuba River at Jones Bar Deer Creek at Smartville
17 CNRFC Development Activities HEFS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System Hindcasts: computationally intensive will allow us to evaluate reliability of ensemble forecasts Exploring improved handling of extreme events GraphGen new tool for visualizing probabilistic forecasts
18 Other Activities Simulation Used ARkStorm meteorology to run simulations using CNRFC modeling system (CHPS) Generated hydrographs to support tabletop exercise Experimental flood notification service Russian River IWRSS Pilot Project
19 Experimenting with New Flood Notification Paradigm
20 Experimenting with New Flood Notification Paradigm
21 Questions?
22
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