A partnership with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: An experiment in Technology Transfer
|
|
- Griselda Kennedy
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 A partnership with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center: An experiment in Technology Transfer Martyn P. Clark and Subhrendu Gangopadhyay Center for Science and Technology Policy Research David Brandon, Kevin Werner, and Steve Shumate Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Collaborators: Lauren Hay Andrea Ray Jeff Whittaker Tom Hamill Balaji Rajagopalan John Schaake
2 OUTLINE Evolution of of the the partnership Initial Initial research on on streamflow forecasting Roles Roles and and responsibilities of of CSTPR and and CBRFC scientists Technology Transfer
3 Evolution of of the the partnership OUTLINE
4 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability
5 The endangered species problem c) Yampa River at Maybell pre se nt March April May June July August September c) Colorado River at Glenwood Springs pre se nt Ma rch Ap ril Ma y J une J uly Aug us t S e p te mbe r John Pitlick augment the natural peak with releases from reservoirs to benefit endangered fish
6 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
7 Andrea Ray
8 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Prospecting for research that meets user needs
9 Andrea Ray
10 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Continue developing experimental methods and publish results Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
11 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Continue developing experimental methods and publish results Link with federal R&D labs to improve potential transfer to operational products Pilot implementation of experimental streamflow forecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado River basin in spring 2003
12 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Continue developing experimental methods and present results Link with federal R&D labs to improve potential transfer to operational products Pilot implementation of experimental streamflow forecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado River basin in spring 2003 Document and assess how knowledge is used is used in reservoir operators decision process as well as assess improvement of forecast
13 Identify societally-relevant problem sensitive to climate variability Identify decision-makers and their key stakeholders Assess how potentially predictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems Begin developing experimental methods for forecasting runoff Continue developing experimental methods and present results Link with federal R&D labs to improve potential transfer to operational products Pilot implementation of experimental streamflow forecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado River basin in spring 2003 Document and assess how knowledge is used is used in reservoir operators decision process as well as assess improvement of forecast
14 OUTLINE Evolution of of the the partnership Initial Initial research on on streamflow forecasting
15 PRECIPITATION BIASES Precipitation biases are in excess of 100% of the mean
16 TEMPERATURE BIASES Temperature biases are in excess of 3 o C
17 Downscale global-scale atmospheric forecasts to local scales in river basins (e.g., individual stations). Horizontal resolution ~ 200 km [scale mis-match] Area of interest ~50 km
18 Downscaling approach For hydrologic applications we need to: Obtain reliable local-scale forecasts of precipitation and temperature Preserve the spatial variability and temporal persistence in the predicted temperature and precipitation fields Preserve consistency between variables Multiple linear Regression with forward selection Y = a 0 + a 1 X1 + a 2 X2 + a 3 X a n Xn + e A separate equation is developed for each station, each forecast lead time, and each month. Use cross-validation procedures for variable selection typically less than 8 variables are selected for a given equation Stochastic modeling of the residuals in the regression equation to provide ensemble time series Shuffling of the ensemble output to preserve the observed spatial variability, temporal persistence, and consistency between variables.
19 The Schaake Shuffle method ( Observed Ensemble) (Downscaled Ensemble) Maximum Temperature Maximum Temperature Forecast Lead Time 8th - 22nd Jan th - 31 Jan th - 27th Jan nd Jan - 5 Feb th - 26th Jan th - 23rd Jan th - 24th Jan th Jan - 2nd Feb th - 30th Jan th - 23rd Jan 1999 Ensemble 1 Ensemble 2 Ensemble 3 Ensemble 4 Ensemble 5 Ensemble 6 Ensemble 7 Ensemble 8 Ensemble 9 Ensemble 10 8th - 22nd Jan 1996
20 The CDC reforecast experiment Jeff Whittaker and Tom Hamill at the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center have used the 1998 NCEP MRF to generate medium-range forecasts for the period 1979 to the present CDC are continuing to run the 1998 NCEP MRF in real time. We use the period of the NWP hindcast ( ) to develop regression models between MRF output and precipitation and temperature at individual stations, and apply the regression coefficients to the CDC experimental forecasts in real-time The resultant local-scale precipitation and temperature forecasts are used as input to the CBRFC hydrologic modeling system to provide realtime forecasts of streamflow
21 EXPERIMENTAL PATHWAY NCEP NCEPprovides initial initial conditions for for experimental forecasts CDC CDCexperimental forecasts are are run run at at about about midnight data becomes available at at about about 6am 6am CSTPR run run the the downscaling code code at at 7am, 7am, and and transfer the the downscaled output output to to CBRFC CBRFC use use the the downscaled output output in in their their operational models
22 Cle Elum Snowmelt Dominated BASINS Compare ESP and SDS 9-day forecasts of runoff every 5 days East Fork of the Carson 526km 2 Animas Snowmelt Dominated Snowmelt Dominated Alapaha Rainfall Dominated 3626km 2 922km km 2
23 Alapaha River Basin (Southern Georgia)
24 Animas River Basin (Southwest Colorado)
25 Cle Elum River Basin (Central Washington)
26 Carson River Basin (CA/NV Border)
27 OUTLINE Evolution of of the the partnership Initial Initial research on on streamflow forecasting Roles Roles and and responsibilities of of CSTPR and and CBRFC scientists
28 Photo: Brad Udall
29
30
31 Meetings Initial planning meeting October 2002 at CDC Follow-up meeting with John Schaake at the NWS-OHD (the beginnings of the Schaake Shuffle!) David Brandon and Kevin Werner visited CSTPR and CDC in February 2003 for a whiteboard session Andrea, Martyn, and Subhrendu gave a briefing to Colorado basin reservoir operators in March 2003 CBRFC scientists were also present Martyn and Subhrendu visited CBRFC in May 2003 to learn about their operational systems and to discuss research progress Regular and telephone conversations
32 Roles and responsibilities of different institutions 0 th level week+2 streamflow forecasts CDC run the experimental medium-range forecast model in real-time CSTPR scientists use output from the CDC MRF, and provide CBRFC with real-time forecasts of precipitation and temperature, tailored to their basins CBRFC use these experimental forecasts in their operational systems What actually happens CSTPR and CBRFC scientists share code, and work collaboratively on developing improved streamflow forecasts New projects are constantly identified and developed
33 Defining projects of mutual interest 0-14 day forecasts of streamflow Based on shuffled downscaling Forecasts provided to CBRFC each day since Jan 1 st 2003 Forecasts implemented in CBRFC operational systems new forecasts now part of the CBRFC operational suite of products Seasonal forecasts of streamflow Weather generator conditioned on climate indices and probabilistic climate forecasts Research currently in progress will (hopefully) be implemented by CBRFC in the next few months.
34 Weather Generator Results
35 Weather Generator Stats January
36 July Weather Generator Stats
37 January Lag-1 and spatial stats
38 July Lag-1 and spatial stats
39 Conditioning on Nino 3.4 index La Nina El Nino Desert SW La Nina El Nino Pacific NW
40 OUTLINE Evolution of of the the partnership Initial Initial research on on streamflow forecasting Roles Roles and and responsibilities of of CSTPR and and CBRFC scientists Technology Transfer
41 Implementation in the Upper Colorado
42 Today s forecast at Cameo
43 Why is technology transfer effective? We have fun down at the pub! Dave Brandon (HIC) has given one of his employees (Kevin Werner) responsibility to take the CDC-CSTPR experimental forecasts and implement them in the CBRFC operational systems We work within the existing operational framework. We are not inventing a completely new approach to forecasting streamflow we break off small parts of the problem and work collaboratively on improving those components CBRFC operational hydrologists have a great deal of professional pride (and are very capable people), who are very interested in developing the best possible forecasting system All parties get brownie points for a successful researchoperational partnership
44 QUESTIONS?
NOAA s National Weather Service
NOAA s National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Developing Climate-Informed Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts over the Colorado River Basin W. Paul Miller Colorado Basin River Forecast
More informationStatistical Downscaling Using K-Nearest Neighbors
Category: Surface Water and Climate Statistical Downscaling Using K-Nearest Neighbors Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 1,2, Martyn Clark 1, and Balaji Rajagopalan 2 1 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
More informationTHE SCHAAKE SHUFFLE: A METHOD FOR RECONSTRUCTING SPACE-TIME VARIABILITY IN FORECASTED PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS.
THE SCHAAKE SHUFFLE: A METHOD FOR RECONSTRUCTING SPACE-TIME VARIABILITY IN FORECASTED PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS Martyn Clark 1, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 1,2, Lauren Hay 3, Balaji Rajagopalan 2,
More informationJ11.5 HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS IN THE NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS)
J11.5 HYDROLOGIC APPLICATIONS OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS IN THE NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) Mary Mullusky*, Julie Demargne, Edwin Welles, Limin Wu and John Schaake
More informationModeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan
Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan The Dworshak reservoir, a project operated by the Army Corps
More informationStrategy for Using CPC Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts to Create Ensemble Forcing for NWS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
Strategy for Using CPC Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts to Create Ensemble Forcing for NWS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) John Schaake (Acknowlements: D.J. Seo, Limin Wu, Julie Demargne, Rob
More informationMarch 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and Water Supply Forecasts
Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center 101 SW Main Street, Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97204-3224 Date: March 17, 2003 Subject: March 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and
More informationNOAA Water Resources Monitor and Outlook
NOAA Water Resources Monitor and Outlook 1 Andrea J. Ray, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Michelle Stokes, NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, and the WRMO steering team: Robert Hartman -
More informationSummary of SARP Kickoff Workshop 10/1/ /2/2012
Summary of SARP Kickoff Workshop 10/1/2012-10/2/2012 On October 1 st a kickoff meeting for the Integrating Climate Forecasts and Reforecasts into Decision Making SARP project was held in Salt Lake City
More informationThe Colorado Drought : 2003: A Growing Concern. Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center.
The Colorado Drought 2001-2003: 2003: A Growing Concern Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 2 2002 Drought History in Colorado
More informationThe following information is provided for your use in describing climate and water supply conditions in the West as of April 1, 2003.
Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center 101 SW Main Street, Suite 1600 Portland, OR 97204-3224 Date: April 8, 2003 Subject: April 1, 2003 Western Snowpack Conditions and
More informationOperational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts
More informationForecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Forecast Challenges for the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center John Lhotak, Development and Operations Hydrologist Improving Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Workshop May 16th, 2018 1 River Forecast Centers
More informationStatistical downscaling using K-nearest neighbors
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 41,, doi:10.1029/2004wr003444, 2005 Statistical downscaling using K-nearest neighbors Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 1 and Martyn Clark Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
More informationUSA National Weather Service Community Hydrologic Prediction System
USA National Weather Service Community Hydrologic Prediction System Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA Background Outline
More informationEVALUATION OF NDFD AND DOWNSCALED NCEP FORECASTS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST 2. DATA
2.2 EVALUATION OF NDFD AND DOWNSCALED NCEP FORECASTS IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST Brandon C. Moore 1 *, V.P. Walden 1, T.R. Blandford 1, B. J. Harshburger 1, and K. S. Humes 1 1 University of Idaho, Moscow,
More informationBehind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
Behind the Climate Prediction Center s Extended and Long Range Outlooks Mike Halpert, Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 2012 Outline Mission Extended Range Outlooks (6-10/8-14)
More informationNATIONAL WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 24 th Hydrology Conference 9.2 James Noel Service Coordination Hydrologist National Weather Service-Ohio River Forecast Center
More informationWinter Climate Forecast
Winter 2018-2019 Climate Forecast 26 th Winter Weather Meeting, OMSI and Oregon AMS, Portland Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon Professor
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationWinter Climate Forecast
Winter 2017-2018 Climate Forecast 25 th Winter Weather Meeting, OMSI and Oregon AMS, Portland Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist-Meteorologist Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission Portland, Oregon Professor
More informationHydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Challenges and Opportunities
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction: Challenges and Opportunities John Schaake (with lots of help from others including: Roberto Buizza, Martyn Clark, Peter Krahe, Tom Hamill, Robert Hartman, Chuck Howard,
More informationChanging Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed
Changing Hydrology under a Changing Climate for a Coastal Plain Watershed David Bosch USDA-ARS, Tifton, GA Jeff Arnold ARS Temple, TX and Peter Allen Baylor University, TX SEWRU Objectives 1. Project changes
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationIncorporating Large-Scale Climate Information in Water Resources Decision Making
Incorporating Large-Scale Climate Information in Water Resources Decision Making Balaji Rajagopalan Dept. of Civil, Env.. And Arch. Engg.. And CIRES Katrina Grantz, Edith Zagona (CADSWES) Martyn Clark
More informationNWS SERFC Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment. Monday, March 9 th, 2015 NOAA, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center
NWS SERFC Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment Monday, March 9 th, 2015 NOAA, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center Current Weather Map Today s weather map shows a blossoming system in
More informationA Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake
A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake Prepared by: Allan Chapman, MSc, PGeo Hydrologist, Chapman Geoscience Ltd., and Former Head, BC River Forecast Centre Victoria
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño
More informationColorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? )
Colorado weather and climate update: a bit more than halfway through the water year (Or: What s going on with the weather?? ) Russ S. Schumacher Colorado State Climatologist Director, Colorado Climate
More informationA RESAMPLING PROCEDURE TO GENERATE CONDITIONED DAILY WEATHER SEQUENCES
A RESAMPLING PROCEDURE TO GENERATE CONDITIONED DAILY WEATHER SEQUENCES Martyn Clark 1, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 1,4, David Brandon 2, Kevin Werner 2, Lauren Hay 3, Balaji Rajagopalan 4,1 and David Yates
More informationUse of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow
FEBRUARY 2004 CLARK AND HAY 15 Use of Medium-Range Numerical Weather Prediction Model Output to Produce Forecasts of Streamflow MARTYN P. CLARK Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019
Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an
More informationWeather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018
Weather Update Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018 Table of contents Current conditions Temperatures Precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasts
More informationWater Year 2019 Wet or Dry?? Improving Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting Jeanine Jones, Department of Water Resources
Water Year 2019 Wet or Dry?? Improving Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting Jeanine Jones, Department of Water Resources Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Precipitation Forecasting Operational
More informationA Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado
A Review of the 2007 Water Year in Colorado Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center, CSU Mike Gillespie Snow Survey Division, USDA, NRCS Presented at the 28 th Annual AGU Hydrology Days, March 26, 2008,
More informationApplications/Users for Improved S2S Forecasts
Applications/Users for Improved S2S Forecasts Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University WSWC Precipitation Forecasting Workshop June 7-9, 2016 San Diego, CA First -- A short background
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
More informationCoastal Erosion & Climate Change: PRIDE 2005 Towards an Alaska Wind/Wave Climatology
Coastal Erosion & Climate Change: PRIDE 2005 Towards an Alaska Wind/Wave Climatology 2 nd PRIDE Workshop August 9-10, 2005 David Atkinson, Int l Arctic Research Center, Univ. Of Alaska-Fairbanks James
More informationContemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center
Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center 1 Outline Commercial: NOAA Administrator s Award for Decisions Support Services Associated with
More informationManaging Climate Risks on the Colorado River
Managing Climate Risks on the Colorado River Balaji Rajagopalan Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering & CIRES University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Symposium on Climate Risk Management
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through
More informationAdaptation for global application of calibration and downscaling methods of medium range ensemble weather forecasts
Adaptation for global application of calibration and downscaling methods of medium range ensemble weather forecasts Nathalie Voisin Hydrology Group Seminar UW 11/18/2009 Objective Develop a medium range
More informationAssessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective
Assessing recent declines in Upper Rio Grande River runoff efficiency from a paleoclimate perspective Flavio Lehner, Andrew Wood Eugene Wahl Dagmar Llewellyn, Douglas Blatchford NCAR Research Applications
More informationP1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
P1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Andrea J. Ray 1, Joseph J. Barsugli 1,2, and Thomas Hamill 1 1 NOAA Earth Systems
More informationCharacteristics of a NIDIS Pilot Project Colorado Basin
Characteristics of a NIDIS Pilot Project Colorado Basin NIDIS Implementation Meeting Longmont, Colorado September 21-22, 2006 Dave Brandon Manager/Director Hydrology & Climate Services Division NOAA- Western
More informationMid-term Operations Probabilistic Model of the Colorado River Basin
Mid-term Operations Probabilistic Model of the Colorado River Basin Tony Powell Precision Water Resources Engineering Daniel Bunk Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region RiverWare User Group Meeting NCAR/UCAR
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More informationDavid R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge NOAA/NWS Northeast River Forecast Center
David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge NOAA/NWS Northeast River Forecast Center Record flooding along the Shawsheen River during the 2006 Mother s Day Floods Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic
More informationNorthwest Outlook September 2017
Northwest Outlook September 2017 Hot and dry August August 2017 continued with the pattern established in June and July that featured a large, semipermanent ridge in the flow of the jet stream. Temperatures
More informationP1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT
P1.8 INTEGRATING ASSESSMENTS OF USER NEEDS WITH WEATHER RESEARCH: DEVELOPING USER-CENTRIC TOOLS FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT Andrea J. Ray 1, Joseph J. Barsugli 1,2, and Thomas Hamill 1 1 NOAA Earth Systems
More informationBecky Bolinger Water Availability Task Force November 13, 2018
Colorado Climate Center WATF Climate Update Becky Bolinger Water Availability Task Force November 13, 2018 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Water Year 2018 Colorado s Climate in Review COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
More informationBUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY Building an Operational National Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting Service for Australia progress to-date and future plans Dr Narendra Kumar Tuteja Manager Extended Hydrological Prediction
More informationAssessment of Snowpack-Influencing climate Change in the Colorado Rockies and Oregon Cascades using a Simple Winter Precipitation Index
Assessment of Snowpack-Influencing climate Change in the Colorado Rockies and Oregon Cascades using a Simple Winter Precipitation Index Has recent climate change benefited mountain snowpack? Mark Losleben,
More informationMidwest and Great Plains Drought and Climate Summary 20 February 2014
Midwest and Great Plains Drought and Climate Summary 20 February 2014 Wendy Ryan Assistant State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University wendy.ryan@colostate.edu 970-491-8506 General
More informationSeasonal Outlook through September 2007
Seasonal Outlook through September 2007 Klaus Wolter (15may) University of Colorado, CIRES & NOAA-ESRL Climate Analysis Branch klaus.wolter@noaa.gov http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/swcasts/
More informationClimate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.
The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi
More informationUpdate on Seasonal Conditions & Summer Weather Outlook
Update on Seasonal Conditions & Summer Weather Outlook Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, Oregon June 6, 2018 Overview Quick review of winter and spring conditions Seasonal water supply forecasts
More informationCalifornia Nevada River Forecast Center Updates
California Nevada River Forecast Center Updates Alert Users Group Meeting Riverside County Flood Control and Water Conservation District October 16 th, 2014 Alan Haynes Service Coordination Hydrologist
More information5.2 PRE-PROCESSING OF ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FOR ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
5.2 PRE-PROCESSING OF ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FOR ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION John Schaake*, Sanja Perica, Mary Mullusky, Julie Demargne, Edwin Welles and Limin Wu Hydrology Laboratory, Office of Hydrologic
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Mountain snowpack continues to maintain significant levels for mid-april. By late March, statewide snowpack had declined to 118 percent of normal after starting
More informationRelevant EU-projects for the hydropower sector: IMPREX and S2S4E
Coupled atmospheric ocean land GCM (CGCM) Downscaling & Bias Adjustment Impact models (e.g. hydrology) Decision makers Community Ilias Pechlivanidis (Hydrology Research) David Gustafsson (Hydrology Research)
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationDK DM M EMORANDUM D ECEMBER 28, 2018 SUBJECT:
TO: CC: FROM: SUBJECT: BOARD OF DIRECTORS M EMORANDUM D ECEMBER 28, 2018 ANDY MUELLER, GENERAL MANAGER DAVE DK KANZER, P.E. & DON MEYER, P.E. DK DM COLORADO RIVER BASIN WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS UPDATE AND
More informationOperational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation
Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA USA Outline Operational
More informationMontana Drought & Climate
Montana Drought & Climate MARCH 219 MONITORING AND FORECASTING FOR AGRICULTURE PRODUCERS A SERVICE OF THE MONTANA CLIMATE OFFICE IN THIS ISSUE IN BRIEF PAGE 2 REFERENCE In a Word PAGE 3 REVIEW Winter 219:
More informationLand Data Assimilation at NCEP NLDAS Project Overview, ECMWF HEPEX 2004
Dag.Lohmann@noaa.gov, Land Data Assimilation at NCEP NLDAS Project Overview, ECMWF HEPEX 2004 Land Data Assimilation at NCEP: Strategic Lessons Learned from the North American Land Data Assimilation System
More informationUsing a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado
Using a high-resolution ensemble modeling method to inform risk-based decision-making at Taylor Park Dam, Colorado Michael J. Mueller 1, Kelly Mahoney 2, Kathleen Holman 3, David Gochis 4 1 Cooperative
More informationMissouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update
Missouri River Basin Water Management Monthly Update Participating Agencies 255 255 255 237 237 237 0 0 0 217 217 217 163 163 163 200 200 200 131 132 122 239 65 53 80 119 27 National Oceanic and Atmospheric
More informationFebruary 27, Jim Ruff, Manager, Mainstem Passage and River Operations. March 2008 Runoff Forecast and Power Supply Status
W. Bill Booth Chair Idaho James A. Yost Idaho Tom Karier Washington Richard K. Wallace Washington Bruce A. Measure Vice-Chair Montana Rhonda Whiting Montana Melinda S. Eden Oregon Joan M. Dukes Oregon
More informationSeasonal forecasts presented by:
Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest Update: 9 February 2019 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 August 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationArizona Drought Monitoring Sensitivity and Verification Analyses Project Results and Future Directions
Arizona Drought Monitoring Sensitivity and Verification Analyses Project Results and Future Directions A Water Sustainability Institute, Technology and Research Initiative Fund Project Christopher L. Castro,
More informationQuenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply
Quenching the Valley s thirst: The connection between Sierra Nevada snowpack & regional water supply Roger Bales, UC Merced Snow conditions Snow & climate change Research directions Sierra Nevada snow
More informationIAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications
WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute
More informationUpper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017
Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division
More information2016 HEPEX Workshop Université Laval, Quebec, Canada
2016 HEPEX Workshop Université Laval, Quebec, Canada Evaluating the Usefulness of the US NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) in the Middle Atlantic Region for Flood and Drought Applications
More informationMidwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018
Midwest/Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook September 20, 2018 Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources September 20, 2018 General Information
More informationClimate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs
Climate Prediction Center Research Interests/Needs 1 Outline Operational Prediction Branch research needs Operational Monitoring Branch research needs New experimental products at CPC Background on CPC
More informationDrought in Southeast Colorado
Drought in Southeast Colorado Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu 1 Historical Perspective on Drought Tourism
More informationExtreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall
More informationSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin
National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 11 February 2014 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought
More informationNational Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin. 22 May 2012
National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 22 May 2012 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought
More informationMissouri River Flood Task Force River Management Working Group Improving Accuracy of Runoff Forecasts
Missouri River Flood Task Force River Management Working Group Improving Accuracy of Runoff Forecasts Kevin Grode, P.E. Reservoir Regulation Team Lead Missouri River Basin Water Management Northwestern
More informationSeasonal forecasts presented by:
Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest Update: 10 November 2018 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered
More informationNOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE. Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles
AUGUST 2006 N O T E S A N D C O R R E S P O N D E N C E 2279 NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Improving Week-2 Forecasts with Multimodel Reforecast Ensembles JEFFREY S. WHITAKER AND XUE WEI NOAA CIRES Climate
More informationThe U. S. Winter Outlook
The 2017-2018 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline About the Seasonal Outlook Review of 2016-17 U. S.
More informationReprint 527. Short range climate forecasting at the Hong Kong Observatory. and the application of APCN and other web site products
Reprint 527 Short range climate forecasting at the Hong Kong Observatory and the application of APCN and other web site products E.W.L. Ginn & K.K.Y. Shum Third APCN Working Group Meeting, Jeju Island,
More informationAPPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES
APPLICATIONS OF DOWNSCALING: HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES EXAMPLES Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering For presentation at Workshop on Regional Climate Research NCAR
More informationNIDIS Drought and Water Assessment
NIDIS Drought and Water Assessment PRECIPITATION The images above use daily precipitation statistics from NWS COOP, CoCoRaHS, and CoAgMet stations. From top to bottom, and left to right: most recent 7-days
More informationColorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook
Colorado s 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu How we got into this drought! Fort
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 25 February 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationOperator and Modeler Collaboration on Truckee- Carson River Operations Using Ensembles River Ware User Group Meeting Thursday February 1, 2018
Operator and Modeler Collaboration on Truckee- Carson River Operations Using Ensembles River Ware User Group Meeting Thursday February 1, 2018 Caleb Erkman, P.E. PWRE David Wathen Deputy TROA Administrator
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most
More informationRainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA s Role, Responsibilities, and Services
Dr. Thomas Graziano Chief Hydrologic Services Division NWS Headquarters Steve Buan Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS North Central River Forecast Center Rainfall-River Forecasting: Overview of NOAA
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure
More informationENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 November 2013 Outline Overview Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Niño Index
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College April 4, 2018 Summary: A near Miracle March played out bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the majority
More informationJanuary 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast
January 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast 2010 Runoff Year Calendar Year 2010 was the third highest year of runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City with 38.8 MAF, behind 1978 and 1997 which
More information