Multi-Hazard Early Warning Information Systems

Transcription

1 Multi-Hazard Early Warning Information Systems Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty Senior Advisor for Climate (acting), and Director, National Integrated Drought Information System NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research USA

2 Alert and warning advancement in the US spans more than 60 years Created in evolved to include integrated use by weather, local public safety officials. Today alerts and warnings are distributed on all available media 2006 Established the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) by Presidential Executive Order : operational in 2011 approximately 300,000 warning related messages per month (includes weather watched, advisories, statements) Four Principal IPAWS Tenets Make alert and warning more effective: Integrate the national alert and warning capabilities Consider all technical means to communicate with the public (i.e. broadcast radio, cellular, social media, internet, mobile apps) Provide emergency information to non-english speaking citizens Ensure delivery of emergency information to citizens with access and functional needs-hearing impaired, sight impaired, cognitive challenges)

3 2010 FEMA adopted the Common Alerting Protocol 2012-Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA): proliferation of over 330 million mobile phones in circulation in the US WEA used for three official categories of alerts: Presidential (national emergencies) AMBER alerts (missing children) Imminent threat to public safety (everything else includes weather and other public safety hazards) NYC Used IPAWS to issue WEA evacuation warnings during Super Storm Sandy National Center for Missing and Exploited Children in support of State law enforcement officials attributed the recovery of 17 children directly to a citizen receiving AMBER alerts via WEA.

4 NOAA works locally, nationally and internationally because hazards cross all spatial domains... And so do extremes, variability, change

5 and related hazards Source: WMO Country-level DRR survey ( Droughts, Flash and river floods, forest and wild fires, heat waves and cold spells, land- and mud-slides, marine and aviation hazards, strong winds and severe storms, tropical cyclones and storm surges Other: volcanic ash transport, air pollution, locust swarms, health epidemics, tsunami, etc

6 What information is needed for decisions? Timely, credible, useful -across all time scales e.g. Hazard management planning and response e.g. Crop Selection, Water management e.g. Infrastructure development

7 End-to-End Societal capabilities- Monitoring and forecasting, Risk assessment, Challenges communicating, engaging in preparedness and adaptation Extreme Events (Tornadoes, Tropical Storms, high winds) Floods Famine early warning FEWSNet Coastal Inundation Drought and Water Resources All Hazard Alert Broadcast system installed at Ocean Shores, Washington. Tsunamis Marine Ecosystems and Commerce

8 Forecasting Requirements for Water Resources Short Range hours days Short-range Long Range weeks months seasons Mid-range Forecast Requirements years decades Long-range

9 Integrated Hazards Outlook (NOAA): U.S. Floods and droughts 3-7 day Hazard Outlook 8-14 day Hazard Outlook Displays which regions are: Susceptible or experiencing floods and droughts Experiencing extreme winds, precipitation, waves, temperature, etc.

10 Enhancing planning and preparedness to extreme events Developing new outlooks for Extreme-Heat Risk Initiate the development of extreme-weather outlooks in the day range Extend Extreme-Heat Index Products to 14 days

11 Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (adapted from Poolman et al) Multiple Monitoring and Forecasting Systems Severe Weather Warning System Standardized Dissemination & Response MEDIA Warning Watch Advisory COMMUNITIES AT RISK National-FEMA State Municipal County 11

12 Most decisions related to preparedness and adaptation are local- NOAA and its partners invest in regional networks NOAA is positioned nationally and internationally to make data and information actionable. Most climate decisions are regional or local, and NOAA is structured to have multiple entry points at regional, state, and local levels.

13 Drought and Floods Multi-Hazard Early Warning Information Systems from intelligence to resilience Partners (International, Federal, States, Tribes, Urban, others) Evolving the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Monitoring & Forecasting Communication and Outreach Information Systems Drought risk management and adaptation Drought and Flood Impacts Assessments and Scenarios Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation

14 1. Acknowledge the cross-timescale nature of weather-climate and of early warning information Globally The total benefits of improved early warning systems could reach between 4 and 36 billion USD per year. Benefit-cost ratios between 4 and 35 with co-benefits (World Bank, 2011)

15 2. Recognize communication as critical but not sufficient Social process(es) of risk communication take many pathways More challenging is an understanding of the socialization of lessons learned by individuals and organizations through their own, direct trial and error experiences The last mile is, by far, the hardest

16 3. Focus on coordination, capacity, and improved decisions-at each level of governance Monitoring and Forecasting Innovation Evaluation Learning

17 Integrated information systems Example: Sea level change impacts in coastal areas Observe & Monitor Spatial Analysis & Visualization Management & Decision Making Applied Research Models & Predictions Information Development and Communication Education & Outreach

18 Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) -partnerships Public/private partnerships Over 26,000 radio and television broadcasters connected 61 Cellular companies connected NOAA Weather Radio (Transmission of Non Weather Emergency Messages) 49 application developers or secondary distributors of alerts connected ranging from website content providers to social media applications State and local participation 48 of 50 States connected to IPAWS (58 state level authorities using IPAWS) 674 local level authorities s leveraging IPAWS services Transnational participation Canadian Multi-Agency Situational Awareness System - In response to the December 7, 2011, President Obama and Prime Minister Harper Beyond the Border Action Plan

19 The role of NOAA: Environmental Intelligence End-to-End capabilities to enhance resilience NOAA Line Offices Observing Systems, Climate Monitoring, and Data Stewardship Understanding and Modeling Predictions and Projections Research Assessments Informing Decisions Communication and Education Services

20 Concluding Remark Sustained partnership networks are essential to ensure that mutual priorities (at-risk communities, good practices, and responses) are identified, supported and advanced NWP

21 Dro LEGEND Thank you! Ending At Midnight - January 5 Capacity (TAF) % of Capacity % of Aver Trinity Lake 34% 50% Shasta Reservoir 42% 66% Lake Oroville 39% 62% Folsom Lake 45% 91% New Melones 23% 40% Don Pedro Reservoir 39% 59% NDMC Coordination San Luis Reservoir 43% 62% Millerton Lake Exchequer Rese 7% 16% 21 Pine Flat 13%

22 Coastal Inundation Developing planning tools for urban areas Example: Sea level rise in New York City NOAA s RISA Program is helping to advance adaptation plans, such as for New York City to enhance urban resilience: 16 local laws in 2013 Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Multi-purpose levee in Lower Manhattan Beach replenishment and dune construction Restored wetlands / tidal barrier in Coney Island Creek Con Edison of New York electric service rate case

23 Sovereign liquidity gap

24 R E S E R V E D T E N S IO N T E N S IO N R E S E R V E D Efforts in Extending the Forecast Lead Tim Observations (QPE) QPF P r e c ip it a t io n E V A P O T R A N S P IR A T IO N U P P E R T E N S IO N Z O N E F R E E P E R C O L A T IO N IN F ILT R A T IO N S U R F A C E IN T E R F L O W R U N O F F D IR E C T R U N O F F L O W E R Z O N E P R IM A R Y F R E E S U P P L E - M E N T A L F R E E B A S E F L O W S U B S U R FA C E O U T F L O W With improved QPF & hydrologic model accuracy River Discharge Current Time Animation Assisted by: Q. Xia, Gi-H. Park & L. Bastidas Forecast Time

25 West and Central Africa, Central Asia, Central America, Caribbean Close partnership with national and global food security community (FAO, WFP, etc.) Products provided to variety of users at the national (Ministerial) communities, regional level and global level (NGOs, International relief organizations, journalists, etc.) GFCS Sector: Food Security Early warning for food security Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

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