Recent Developments in Tsunami R&D and Forecast Systems
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1 Recent Developments in Tsunami R&D and Forecast Systems Christian Meinig NOAA/PMEL Director of Engineering Oct 15, 2007
2 Outline DART array update Forecast System update-examples examples Deployment Results Tsunami R&D
3 Global DARTs ~38 systems, 5 countries
4 Tsunami Forecasts Pre-operational stage Four successful realtime forecast over the past 18 months Testing and UI evaluations at warning centers
5
6 DART & MOST forecast Model comparison from Sumatra Sept 12 EQ Liujuan Tang NCTR, NOAA/PMEL
7 Warning center Example: Timeline of a Tsunami Event From Y. Wei, et al.,2007
8 DART Data Greatly Improves Forecast Without DART tide gage MOST (seismic data only) amplitude hours after earthquake (06:43:07 UTC, November 17, 2003) With DART tide gage MOST (tsunameter-adjusted) amplitude hours after earthquake (06:43:07 UTC, November 17, 2003)
9 Next Generation DART TM Technology Desired improvements from DART TM Eliminate need for large ship & skilled crew Deployment sea state limitations Large buoys Vandalism protection Flexibility to array operations Cheaper lifecycle costs II
10 DART TM system evolution 20 years of tsunami research (early 80 s) Internally recording instruments (mid s) One-direction realtime reporting (DART I) (mid s) Transitioned to operations Bi-directional, global reporting (DART TM II) (2003) Patent pending & transitioned to operations (2006) Concept copied/adopted by commercial vendors (2006) Trademark filed/license applications Bi-directional, global, easy to deploy R&D (DART TM -ETD) (2007) SAIC licenses DART II technology ETD Pre-operational prototypes deployed
11 DART TM DART II & DART TM ETD Common core components-different packaging i.e. desktop and laptop No Changes: Data logger CPU, Acoustic Modem PCB, BPR, Paros, Iridium Modem and transmission protocol, system modes and tsunami detection scheme. Minor Changes: Acoustic modem transducer and pre-amp, system software and GPS & ground plane.
12 Infrastructure-unchanged NDBC
13
14 Packaging & Logistics
15 DART II-ETD New Features: 4-55 year expendable BPR Conex packaging MET sensors Improved upper mooring line Ongoing rigorous testing
16 DART-ETDs (Low Latitude)
17 102 Sea Height DART II-ETD Primary 98% Secondary 98% month test deployment Sea Height (m) Dec Jan Feb-07 6-Apr May Jun-07 4-Aug-07 Time (GMT) 102 Sea Height
18 DART II-ETD 103 Primary 99% Secondary 98% On-going ~7 month test deployment Sea Height Sea height (m) Mar-07 9-Apr Apr May-07 8-Jun Jun Jul-07 7-Aug-07 Time (GMT) 103 Sea Height
19 DART-ETD (High Latitude)
20 105/6 Line Tension and Sea Height Line Tension (lbs) Sea Height (m) Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul-07 4-Aug-07 9-Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug-07 Time (GMT) 105/6 Line Tension 105/6 Sea Height
21 PMEL Cost Study Analysis. The findings (largely based on the cost differentials in unit production, unit service life, and the mode of deployment and type of vessels utilized) indicate that a fully deployed array of 39 ETD DART-II sites could be accomplished on sufficient service cycle for an annual budget of approximately $2.97M, or less than 22% of the projected budget for comparable array maintenance with Standard DART-II moorings...
22 4 th Generation DART?: A system with the power of human intelligence, vision capabilities, integrated audible alarm and very low battery requirements
23 Acknowledgements Vasily Titov, Scott Stalin, Dirk Tagawa, Michael Strick, Michael Spillane, Marie Eble, Rachel Tang, Angie Venturato, Yong Wei
24 Thank you For more information
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