How fast can a falcon fly?

Transcription

1 How fast can a falcon fly? DEVEX 9 th May 2012 Peter Brand

2 Overview Overview Timeline Appraisal Development Performance Potential Summary / Conclusions

3 Overview - Location Falcon Tern Kestrel Shetland Islands

4 Overview

5 Overview Tern North

6 Timeline 1979 Shell/Esso licensed the area (P296) Shell/Esso discovered Falcon with 210/25a-9 exploration well TAQA bought the Tern field TAQA bought the area containing Falcon Drill 210/25a-10 (explore H block) Drill 210/25a-10Z (appraise Falcon) Commence Run subsea completion development Complete project First oil

7 Timeline Regulatory Enablers Fallow acreage initiative? Field redetermination on economic grounds Possible to carve-out from the Tern PRT area IF Falcon had proved connected to Tern Small Fields Allowance

8 Appraisal Seismic section Well logs RFTs Faulting Appraisal plan Results

9 Appraisal - Seismic section SW Tern Main Field G Block H Block I Block Falcon NE Abercromby Kimmeridge Clay Heather Base Mid Ness Shale Cormorant 1 Paleosol Basement

10 Appraisal Well Logs TA05S1 210/25a-9 Upper Ness Lower Ness /Etive OWC 8500 ft TVDSS ODT 8105 ft TVDSS Plotted in TVD and hung on Base Mid-Ness Shale for thickness comparison

11 Appraisal - RFT data TA05S1 Jan94 Solid = measured Open = simulated Simulation model provides reasonably good match 25a-10z to depletion May10 data 25a-9 May00 Pinit E1 Dec97 P2 Jul01

12 Appraisal - Tern and Tern North faulting F-G and I-Falcon are major sealing faults, with Brent/Brent but no good res connection G-H and H-I faults are lesser faults, with minor good res juxtaposition towards their crests Juxtaposition caused by anticlinal flexure towards fault block crests F G H I Main Tern Field IOWC 8258 Internal faults can seal up to 1200psi ΔP on production G Block IOWC Initial oil fill - Partially sealing fault compartments filled down past their individual spill points fill and spill Partial sealing becomes evident during production Tern initial seal requirement is 120psi (1450 column, ΔP oil/water 0.08pis/ft) Tern North 220 column - seal requirement 18psi Falcon IOWC 8500

13 Appraisal - Plan Updip targets from old well with indications of oil in Upper Ness First branch to H block, upside location Second branch to NE of old well, with higher CoS, planned as keeper Fast Track Appraise while developing Avoids winter working Fast track procurement, based on delivery Significant pre-sanction commitments Approval cycle discussed with DECC Environmental Deliveries discussed with key suppliers

14 Appraisal - Results H-block well wet Falcon N well (210/25a-10Z) 23 shallow to prognosis 20 more net reservoir Slightly higher porosity so higher permeability 5 deeper OWC Falcon S Falcon N Plotted in TVD and hung on Base Mid-Ness Shale for thickness comparison

15 Development Modelling Schematic Development plan Lessons

16 Development - Modelling New seismic interpretation 2 new wells Structurally quite complex 79 faults Property modelling relatively simple 100m x 100m x 20 layers for simulation Primary purpose: Falcon development plan Secondary purposes: Kestrel and G-block development planning Falcon North Falcon South

17 Development - Modelling Oil in place: Falcon South 13 mmbbl Falcon North 18 mmbbl G Block H I Falcon Tern Main L Preliminary initialization of new reservoir model (oil saturation) Kestrel North

18 Development - Schematic Also considered: Tie-in at Kestrel SSIV (near Tern) New riser at Tern

19 Development - Key project risks, May 2010 Approvals schedule not under TAQA control Kestrel back-out estimation Cost growth due to high industry activity Schedule Drill rig availability for 2011 completion Tight schedule to first oil date (tree, controls, pipe, umbilical) Operability/Integrity Limitations of existing subsea umbilical for deploying chemicals for flow assurance Operability/integrity risks on existing Kestrel infrastructure, which had been in use since 2001 Additional risks Uncertainties on the initial flow rate and recoverable reserves After thorough analysis the cheapest route, via Kestrel, was selected

20 Development - Plan Approach Keep it simple Minimise impact on platform Minimise CAPEX Scope Complete well and run subsea xmas tree Install new production and gas lift pipelines and an umbilical

21 Development - Lessons Scope growth in platform modifications Late addition of Kestrel flexible riser replacement Obsolescence of Kestrel controls infrastructure identified late Subsea construction/installation required extra TAQA support Start-up was delayed by incomplete instrumentation commissioning Entire Appraisal-Development project under budget First oil < 1 month late compared to stretch target

22 Performance and forecasts Oil rate Water cut History match: pressure

23 bopd Performance oil rate Has exceeded expectations so far oil rate 'Low' case 'Base' case 'High' case Actual New forecast May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17

24 Performance water cut Is similar to predictions water cut 'Low' case 'Base' case 'High' case Actual New Forecast Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

25 Pressure (psia) Performance - pressure Matched with additional aquifer strength and internal reservoir connectivity Well Falcon North Bottom Hole Pressures Model 1000 Actual Jul-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

26 Potential Plan: Drill Abercromby prospect (next fault block north) Risk 1 fault seal Risk 2 migration Option: Drill Falcon 2 nd producer and/or injector Depending on performance Maintaining history matched model

27 Summary / Conclusions First oil schedule met (almost). On budget On reflection the schedule was very aggressive in a busy market This timeline would not be achievable today (longer regulatory timeframes, even tighter services markets) Better than expected performance (better reservoir) Encouraged to explore further Considering further development Key project risks: Approvals schedule not under TAQA control Kestrel back-out estimation Cost growth due to high industry activity Schedule Drill rig availability for 2011 completion Tight schedule to first oil date (tree, controls, pipe, umbilical) Operability/Integrity Limitations of existing subsea umbilical for deploying chemicals for flow assurance Operability/integrity risks on existing Kestrel infrastructure, which has been in use since 2001 Additional risks Uncertainties on the initial flow rate and recoverable reserves

28 Acknowledgements TAQA Bratani Ltd TAQA - project team ADIL - development planning support DECC - fast turnaround of approvals

29 Finally, by the way How fast can a Falcon fly? RSPB: 60 mph (level flight) BBC: >180 mph (diving) National Geographic: 242 mph (diving) TAQA: acquisition to first oil in 22 months Bill Buchanan/USFWS

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31 Performance Pressure Build-up Analysis Well Location Kh : mdft K : 148 md Pwsi : 2970 psia (July 2011) Rectangle with const. Pressure Boundary Rectangle Size: 2220 x 7620 ft Rectangle Pore volume 170 MMbbl Const Pressure (Kestrel)