Country Report: Floods and Flood Forecasting System in Myanmar. Ms. Tin Yi Director Department of Meteorology and Hydrology MYANMAR

Transcription

1 Country Report: Floods and Flood Forecasting System in Myanmar Ms. Tin Yi Director Department of Meteorology and Hydrology MYANMAR

2 Floods in Myanmar - Widespread Floods, Flash Floods Widespread/Riverine Floods -mostly occur in the large and medium rivers and caused by the heaving rainfall striking at the head water region for considerable period ( 1-3 days), the flood wave forming at the head water started to move downward and causing flood along the river up to the deltaic area. - Severe riverine floods occurred in 1974, 1997, 2004, 2015, 2016

3 Causes of River Floods in Myanmar - occurs in SW Monsoon period (June-Oct) Ayeyarwady and Chindwin Rivers - Intense heavy rain due to pronounced monsoon trough persisting for at least 3 days over Northern Myanmar areas - Strong to vigorous monsoon in Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal and along the Myanmar coast - Heavy rainfall due to cyclonic storm crossing Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon Thanlwin, Sittaung, Bago, Shwegyin, Dokehtawady and Ngawun Rivers - Strong to vigorous monsoon in Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal and along the Myanmar coast - Mostly due to rainfall associated with low pressure waves (the remnants of typhoons and tropical storms of South China Sea) moving from east to west across the country

4 Flash Floods -usually occur in small rivers and tributaries of large rivers and in streams in mountainous regions -Due to heavy rainfall during short time and flood wave move downward swiftly -Flash Floods in Myanmar Manchaung Flash Flood (at Shwe Settaw Pagoda) in 1987 Shwegin Flash Flood in 1997 Wundwin Flash Flood in 2001 Kyangin Flash Flood in 2006 Shwechaung Flash Flood in 2011

5 2011 Flash Flood Pakokku District (19-20 Oct 2011) Thandwe ( ) Rainfall 7.48 in ( ) in ( ) (Due to Depression at North Bay) Gwa (19-20 July 2011) Rainfall 3.86 in ( ) in ( ) Affect houses Affected Population Landslide - 20 ft (Thandwe-Gwa Highway) 20 ft (Gwa-NTG Highway) Bawlakhe (Nanpon Stream) - Rainfall 1.54 in (3 Oct 2011) - Some Streets were inundated - Some houses were inundated Pakokku Seiktha Zaugtu Zalun NTG - Rainfall (18-20 Oct 2011) Pakokku Gangaw 6.65 in 5.95 in Nyaung Oo 9.34 in Affect Villages/wards 102 Death toll 161 Livestock losses 3384 Damaged Houses 2535 Damaged Gov. Buildings 15 Damaged religious Building 33 Damaged croplands (acres) 5378 Damaged Bridges 7 Affected Houses 9523 Affected Population The loss in terms of cash (million kyats)

6 Severe Flood Years (Since 1966 ) River Highest Water Level Recorded at Year Total Stations above Danger Level Chindwin Homalin stations Ayeyarwady Chauk, Minbu, Aunglan, Pyay stations Chindwin Mawlaik stations Ayeyarwady Myitkyina, Katha stations Chindwin Hkamti stations Sittoung Shwegyin Chindwin Thanlwin Ayeyarwady Madauk Shwegyin Kalewa, Monywa Hpa-an Bhamo, Sagaing, Mandalay, Nyaung Oo, Magway stations stations stations Chindwin Monywa stations Ayeyarwady/ Ngawun Nyang Oo, Zalun, Pathein stations

7 Occurrence of Flood Percentage in Months and Flood Frequency along Ayeyarwady River River/ Station Monthly Flood Occurrence % Flood Frequency June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Ayeyarwady River Floods Flood Years Duration(Total Year) Myitkyina (50 yrs) Bhamo (49 yrs) Katha (51yrs) Mandalay (49yrs) Sagaing (51yrs) Pakokku (19yrs) Nyaung Oo (51 yrs) Chauk (44yrs) Minbu (51yrs) Magway (27 yrs) Aunglan (44yrs) Pyay (51yrs) Seiktha (28yrs) Henzada (51yrs) Zalun (32yrs)

8 River/Station Occurrence of Flood Percentage in Months and Flood Frequency along Chindwin and other Rivers Monthly Flood Occurrence % Floods June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Flood Frequenc y Flood Years Duration(Total Year) Chindwin Hkamti (50yrs) Homalin (49yrs) Mawlaik (52yrs) Kalewa (50yrs) Monywa (51yrs) Dokehtawady Hsipaw (50yrs) Myitnge (45yrs) Sittoung Toungoo (52yrs) Madauk (51yrs) Shwegyin Shwegyin (51yrs) Bago Zangtu (30yrs) Bago (52yrs) Thanlwin Hpa-an (51yrs) Ngawun NTG (32yrs) Pathein (12yrs)

9 Responsibility of DMH for Flood Forecasting System in Myanmar 70 Hydrological Monitoring Stations Ayeyarwady - 18 stations Chindwin - 8 stations Sittaung - 2 station Thanlwin - 1 stations Dokehtawady - 3 stations Bago - 2 stations Shwegyin - 1 station Ngawun - 2 stations Toe - 1 station Kalaten - 2 stations Lay Myo - 1 station Telemetry observation Stations

10 DMH s Water Level Observation System Manual Observation system (Most stations/ still using) Telemetry Water Level Monitoring System (starting to upgrade some stations by Gov. Budget/ Projects)

11 Daily water level forecast River Stage Correlation Method Multiple Linear Regression Method Integrated Flood Analysis System-IFAS (research) HBV model (testing for Chindwin) HEC HMS Model for Ayeyarwady, Chindwin and Sittoung river (testing) Seasonal water level forecast Based on flood characteristic occurred in Analogue years Based on seasonal weather forecast Based on comparison of current flow with the individual hydrograph for the last (10) years Based on the average flow of the last (10) years Based on Flood frequency analysis Based on ENSO forecast

12 Flood Forecasting and Warning System and Dissemination River Stage and Rainfall from Reporting Station Flood Forecasting Center (Hydrological Division-Nay Pyi Taw) Discussion at 12:30 pm Weather Forecasting Center Meteorological Division-Nay Pyi Taw Analyzing the Satellite Image Weather Forecast DMH Website FACEBOOK Flood Forecast and Warning Radio/TV/media Concerned DMH Stations If the flood is severe case, the department has to request radio and television stations to broadcast the flood warning and bulletin frequently Related Ministries and Dept. Phone Fax Higher Authorities SSB Local Authorities Affected Area

13 Types of Forecast Types of Forecast Time of Issuance Forecast Validity General Long Range Water Level Forecast April 28 Monsoon season(early, Mid and Late) Seasonal Water Level Forecast April 28 June 28 August 28 October 28 Early Monsoon(May- June) Mid Monsoon (July-Aug) Late Monsoon(Sep-Oct) Winter Monsoon(Nov-Feb) Monthly Water Level Forecast 28 th of every month 1 month 10 Days Water Level Forecast 8 th, 18 th, 28 th of every month 10 days Daily Water Level Forecast Daily 1 Day

14 Warning, Bulletin and Forecast Warning Flood Warning Minimum Alert Water Level Bulletin Flood Bulletin Significant Water Level Bulletin Low Flow Bulletin Forecast Daily W/L Forecast Dekad W/L Forecast Monthly W/L & Flood Forecast Seasonal W/L & Flood Forecast Genera Long Range W/L & Flood Forecast

15 Daily Water Level Forecasts for (41)Stations at (11) Major Rivers Ayeyarwady - 18 stations Chindwin - 8 stations Sittaung - 2 station Thanlwin - 1 stations Dokehtawady - 3 stations Bago - 2 stations Shwegyin - 1 station Ngawun - 2 stations Toe - 1 station Kalaten - 2 stations Lay Myo - 1 station

16 2100 Water Level Condition of Chindwin River at Hkamti 0 water level (cm) Rainfall (mm) Observed Water Level (cm) Forcast Water Level (cm) Danger Level (cm) Rainfall (mm) /7/1613/7/16 (12:30) 14/7/16 (12:30) 15/7/16 (12:30) 16/7/16 (12:30) 17/7/16 (12:30) 18/7/16 (12:30) (12:30)

17 Flood Conditions during Monsoon Season 2016 Ayeyarwady River -17 Stations (Two times at Nyaung Oo) Chindwin River - 8 Stations (Two times at all stations) Dokehtawady River - 1 Station Ngawun River - 2 Stations Toe River - 1 Station

18 Occurrences of floods in 2016 Floods Occurrences in 2016 Flood Frequency

19 Floods Occurrences during st Highest 1 st Highest Duration(Day) Above Danger Level(FT) 1 st Highest Maubin Bhamo Shwegu Katha TBKN Mandalay Sagaing Myinmu Pakokku Nyaung Oo Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hinthada Zalun Hkamti Homalin Ppyin Mawlaik Kalewa Mingin Kani Monywa Myitnge NTG Pathein

20 2016 Floods Photos

21 Issuing Flood Warnings and Bulletins during 2016 Rivers Types of News SWLB FW FB 1.Ayeyarwady Chindwin Sittoung 4.Shwegyin Bago 2-6.Thanlwin 2-7.Ngawun Dokehtawady Kalaten( start date ) Toe( start date ) Lay Myo( start date ) - - Total SWLB Significant Water Level Bulletin FW FB Flood Warning Flood Bulletin

22 Review on the occurrences of floods in Flood Frequency Flood Frequency 2015(Monsson Season) Flood Frequency Mkyina Bhamo Katha Mdly Sgaing Myinmu Pakokku N OO Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hinthada Zalun Hkamti Homalin P Pyin Mawlaik Kalewa Mingin Monywa Hsipaw S S Yan Myinge Toungoo Madauk Shwekyin ZaungTu Bago Hpaan NTG Annual peak water levels at 8 major rivers on Myitkyina Bhamo Katha Mandalay Sagaing Myinmu Pakokku Nyaungoo Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hinthada Zalun Hkamti Homalin P Pyain Mawlaik Kalewa Mingin Monywa Hsipaw Ssyan Myitnge Toungoo Madauk Shwegyin Zaungtu Bago Hpaan NTG Water Levels(FT)

23 Review on the occurrences of floods in 2015 Rivers Types of News SWLB FW FB Ayeyarwady Chindwin Sittoung Shwegyin Bago Thanlwin Ngawun Dokehtawady Total SWLB Significant Water Level Bulletin FW FB Flood Warning Flood Bulletin

24 Comparison of One Week Observed Rainfall and July Normal Rainfall (Due to Cyclone Komen )

25 Disasters due to Cyclone Komen in Myanmar (2015)

26 Flood affected areas and affected people(july, 2015)

27 2015 Severe flood in Myanmar Cause - severe flood and landslide by unusually heavy rainfall and also cyclone Komen Period - 20 July 2015 to August Affected areas - 12 States and Regions except from Kayah and Thanintharyi H.E President, in line with the section 11 of Natural Disaster Management Law, declared Chin State, Sagaing Region, Magway Region and Rakhine State as the worst disasteraffected areas on July 31.

28 NO States/ Regions Damages by flood (2015) Damaged houses Affected households Affected people Death toll 1 Sagaing Kachin Shan Mandalay Chin Mon Magway Yangon Rakhine Kayin Bago Ayeyarwaddy Thanintharyi Kayah Total 39, ,208 1,692,

29 Replanting in the Flooded Area (2015) No. Regions/ States Flooded Acre Affected Acre Damaged Acre Replanting Acre 1 Nay Pyi Taw Kachin Kayar Kayin Chin Sagaing Pago Magway Mandalay Mon Rakaing Yangon Shan Ayeyawaddy Total

30 Contribution of humanitarian assistances(2015) Receiving Donation for flood (2015)

31 6 Flood frequency during 2013 monsoon season at 8 major rivers 5 4 Flood frequency Mkyina Bhamo Katha Mdly Sgaing Pakokku NU Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hintha Zalun Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Hsipaw Myinge Toungoo Madauk Shwe Zaung Bago Hpaan NTG 0 Flood Frequency MKN Bhamo Katha Mandalay Sagaing Pakokku Nyaung Oo Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hinthada Zalun Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Myitnge Toungoo Madauk Shwegyin Hpaan ZTU Bago NTG Flood Frequency during 2014 Monsoon Season Flood Frequency

32 Flood Hydrograph at Toungoo of Sittoung River (2013) 0 Danger Level (600) cm 2 nd Highest Record ( ) Water Level (cm) 1-Jul-13 8-Jul Jul Jul Jul-13 5-Aug Aug Aug Aug-13 2-Sep-13 9-Sep Sep Sep Sep-13 7-Oct Oct Oct Oct-13 4-Nov-13 Rainfall (mm) Relief camp - 72 Affected Population Affected Paddy and Crop acres Damaged Paddy and Crop - > acres

33 Mkyina Bhamo Katha Mdly Sgaing Pakokku NU Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hinthada Zalun Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Hsipaw Myinge Toungoo Madauk Shwekyin ZaungTu Bago Hpaan NTG Flood Frequency in 2012(Monsoon Season) 系列 1 Mkyina Bhamo Katha Mdly Sgaing Pakokku NU Chauk Minbu Magway Aunglan Pyay Seiktha Hinthada Zalun Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Hsipaw Myinge Toungoo Madauk Shwekyin ZaungTu Bago Hpaan NTG Flood Frequency in 2011(Monsoon Season) Flood

34 2012 Flood 3 rd Highest ( ) of Shwegyin of Shwegyin River Flood Hydrograph of Shwegyin of Shwegyin River (2012) water level (cm ) Danger Level (700) cm Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 5-Oct 12-Oct 19-Oct 26-Oct 600 Flood duration is 10 days Inundated ¾ of the total area (3 to 4.5) ft flood depth 20 wards were inundated Flood affected population was about 11255

35 Comparison of 2010 and 2011 Water Levels of Toungoo of Sittoung River Danger Level 600 cm Pakokku Seiktha Zalun NTG Zaugtu Comparison of 2010 and 2011 Water Levels of Hpaan of Thanlwin River Danger Level 750 cm 1-May 15-May 29-May 12-Jun 26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul 7-Aug 21-Aug 4-Sep 18-Sep 2-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct water level (cm) 1-May 15-May 29-May 12-Jun 26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul 7-Aug 21-Aug 4-Sep 18-Sep 2-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct Date Comparison of 2010 and 2011 Water Levels of Madauk of Sittoung River Danger Level Date water level (cm) water level (cm) 1-May 15-May 29-May 12-Jun 26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul 7-Aug 21-Aug 4-Sep 18-Sep 2-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct Date 2011 Annual Peak/ Lowest Water level 4 th Lowest (1967~2011) 1 st Lowest (1967~2011) 2 nd Lowest (1968~2011) 2 nd Lowest (1966~2011) 3 rd Lowest (1968~2011) 4 th Lowest (1968~2011) 1 st Highest ( ) 2 nd Highest ( ) Fig (9) Comparison of 2010 Water Level and 2011 Water Level during Monsoon Period at Shwegyin of Shwegyin River 800 Danger Level (700 cm) water level (cm) Water Level 2011 Water Level 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 5-Oct 12-Oct 19-Oct 26-Oct Floods in Fig (1) Comparison of 2010 Water Level and 2011 Water Level during Monsoon Period at Myitkyina of Ayeyarwady River Danger Level (1200 cm) Date water level (cm) Fig (4) Comparison of 2010 Water Level and 2011 Water Level during Monsoon Period at Hkamti of Chindwin River Danger Level (1360 cm) Water Level 2011 Water Level 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 5-Oct 12-Oct 19-Oct 26-Oct Date Water Level 2011 Water Level 0 1-Jun 8-Jun 15-Jun 22-Jun 29-Jun 6-Jul 13-Jul 20-Jul 27-Jul 3-Aug 10-Aug 17-Aug 24-Aug 31-Aug 7-Sep 14-Sep 21-Sep 28-Sep 5-Oct 12-Oct 19-Oct 26-Oct Date water level (cm)

36 Recorded Floods during 2011 to 2016 Year River Station/ Recorded Flood Levels Total Stations (above DL) 2011 Bago/Thanlwin Bago (1 st ), Paan(2 nd ) 13 stations 2012 Shwegyin Shwegyin (3 rd ) 9 stations 2013 Sittoung Toungoo (2 nd ) 14 stations 2014 Bago Bago (4 th ) 11 stations 2015 Chindwin/ Ayeyarwady/ Ngawun Monywa (1 st ), Kalewa(2 nd ),Seiktha (2 nd ), Zalun(2 nd ) Pakokku(3 rd ), Nyang Oo(3 rd ), Aunglan(3 rd ), Pyay(3 rd ), Hinthada(3 rd ), Ntg(4 th ) 23 stations 2016 Ayeyarwady/Ngawun Nyang Oo (1 st ), Zalun(1 st ), Pathein(1 st ) 29 stations

37 Flood hazard mapping

38 - Flood Mapping - Funding by ADB/ Technical Support by ICHARM & CTI, JAPAN

39 ONGOING ACTIVITIES The project for establishment of disastrous weather monitoring system (3 Radars and 30 AWOS) (JICA Funding) ( ) Development and Implementation of User-Relevant End-to-End Flood Forecast Generation for Myanmar( Technical support by RIMES and Indian Gov. Funding) (April 2014 March 2017)( Installation of 13 TWLMS and 2 AWOS and Flood forecast model development) AIRBM Project (Component 2: Hydro met Observation and Information System Modernization (WB Project) ( ) Developing a methodology for flood forecasting for a selected river basin in Myanmar (Hydrological Modelling System) ( ) (Technical support by NVE & ADPC and Norway Gov. Funding) (Hydrological modeling, Develop Flood Hazard Map, Drills and simulations for floods for pilot sites (Kale, Kalewa) To install 90 AWOS and 10 (TWLMS) by Gov. Budget ( Budget yr) Modernization of Forecasting and Warning System for Natural Disaster in Myanmar ( ) (Korea Gov. Funding, KMA and KMIPA) (AWS installation) To Develop Flood Early Warning for Thanlwin river basin (DMCD Project, Funding by MLIT, Japan (IDI, CTI, YEC )

40 Project for establishment of disastrous weather monitoring system (3 Radars and 30 AWOS) Kyaukphyu Yangon

41 Development and Implementation of User-Relevant End-to-End Flood Forecast Generation for Myanmar Ayeyarwady, Chindwin & Sittaung Basins Installation of 13 TWLMS and 2 AWOS Flood Forecast Model Development

42 Future Plans / Requirements to improve existing flood forecasting system To upgrade the observation system (instruments and network) To upgrade the Data management system To upgrade the Early Warning Dissemination System To upgrade the discharge/sediment measurement instruments and also discharge/sediment observations To develop the advance and effective flood forecasting techniques Capacity Building (Education, Training) To establish the flood detection system (such as CCTV monitoring system) To establish the flash flood guidance system To upgrade the RS and GIS section especially for Flood Hazard Mapping (software, high resolution DEM and satellite images, techniques, CB) To improve the Flood Hazard mapping To upgrade the long range flood forecast techniques (seasonal and monthly) To develop the studying and analysis of climate change impact on floods

43 CONCLUSION DMH will cooperate and collaborate with the local and international organizations to upgrade the Flood Forecasting System to reduce the flood risks in Myanmar.