Early Flood Warning System in Pakistan

Transcription

1 Early Flood Warning System in Pakistan By Muhammad Tahir Anwar Director General M/o National Food Security and Research Government of Pakistan Asian Water Cycle Forum 2016 March 1-2, 2016 Tokyo, Japan

2 Early Warning System - Rationale Early warning systems (EWS) received very high attention during last two decades after some extralarge disasters in the world Countries vulnerable to hydro-met disasters have realized the significance of EWS at national and local levels Like many other parts of the world, Pakistan is also extremely vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters In Pakistan, more than 70% hydro-met disasters occur during monsoon season 2

3 Contd... Very high degree of vulnerability of hydro-met in Pakistan, where necessity tends to force the poor to occupy the most vulnerable areas Long history of floods Pakistan experienced 20 major floods during last 66 years Reported financial loss of more than US$ 39 billion Trends of repeated hydro-met disasters resulting in high damages led to develop an integrated Effective EWS at national and local levels 3

4 EWS Conceptual Framework Monitoring of precursors to natural events NO Forecasting: Will there be an event? YES Issue a Warning or an Alert Initiate actions according to emergency plans 4

5 Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Pakistan Floods (Flash/Urban Floods) Droughts Cyclones Heat/Cold Waves Wind/Dust Storms Fog GLOF Landslides - Avalanches 5

6 Nodal Organizations for Monitoring and EWS Forecasts / Warnings relating to major Natural Disasters are being provided by. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) Federal Flood Commission (FFC) Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) Health Pak Navy 6

7 Specialized Early Warning Centers Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC) Islamabad Marine Meteorology & Tropical Cyclone Early Warning Centre (TCWC) Karachi National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC) Islamabad National Seismic Monitoring & Tsunami Early Warning Centre (NTWC) Karachi Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore Flash Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre For Lai Nullah Basin Islamabad 7

8 Technical and Technological Aspects of the System

9 Flood Forecasting Tools Real Time Hydro Meteorological Data (WAPDA and Irrigation Departments) Real Time and Prognostic Weather Charts (PMD NWF Centre and Global Products) Numerical Weather Prediction Models (PMD NWF Centre and Global Products) Hydrological Models / Statistical Models Satellite Data (Hydro Estimator, JAXA) Weather Radar Network 9

10 Forecasting System of PMD Technique Short, Medium and Long Range Weather Forecasts Weather Charts Numerical Weather Products (HRM High Resolution Regional Model) NOMAD - NOAA Operational Model Archive Distribution System NCEP Statistical Method EPS: ENSEMBLE Prediction System (Probabilistic Technique) Single Model & Multi-Model ENSEMBLE Prediction System 10

11 Flood Forecasting System of PMD 10-cm Doppler Radars 1- Lahore 2- Mangla QPM Radar 1- Sialkot 5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars 1- Islamabad 3- D.I.Khan 4- Rahim Yar Khan 4- Karachi 11 11

12 Satellite Ground Stations of PMD HRPT 1- Islamabad 2- Quetta FY-2 E/D 1- Islamabad Six hourly satellite rainfall data is available on-line for use in models 12

13 Automation of Meteorological Observing Network Astore Balakot Muzaffarabad Parachinar Bannu D.I.Khan Zhob Sibbi Central data archiving Station Khuzdar Larkana Automatic Weather Stations Nawabshah Jiwani Chhor 13

14 PMD: Pakistan Meteorological Department Hydrology Flood Forecasting Division, Lahore WAPDA (River/Rain Gauge Data) A Specialized unit of PMD for Hydro-meteorological Services Responsibilities Flood Forecasting Early Warning for River/Urban Flooding Water availability Forecasts for Agriculture Sector Assisting in Water Management Irrigation Deptt (Stream Flow Data) Flood Forecast WARNING FFC Federal Flood Commission NDMA National Disaster Management Authority MEDIA Press, TV Channels, SMS 14

15 Modelling and Simulations IFAS project is being implemented with the support of UNESCO & JAXA Flash Flood Guidance system is being implemented with the support of HRC USA 15

16 Risk Identification: Early Warnings Time Dependency of Warnings at PMD 120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h Ensemble Pred. tools Global models EPS, Probabilities Global models Limited Area models Nowcasting tools L.A. models Nowcasting Warnings Activities 16

17 Flood Warning Criteria 17

18 EW Information Dissemination Flow Chart NDMA PMD PDMA DDMA Federal Ministries / FFC/ Departments / Armed Forces Electronic & Print Media TMA UCs Communities 18

19 Accessibility of Weather Advisories 19

20 Contd... 20

21 Dissemination of Weather Advisories v 21

22 Linkages to Various Sectors AVIATION METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICES AVIATION DIVISION MINISTRY OF WATER & POWER AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF FOOD SECURITY NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS R & D & RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS MINISTRY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING & DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS NDMA, PLANNING DIVISION & DISASTER MITIGATION ORGANIZATIONS 22

23 EWS in Pakistan - Challenges Lack of Hydro-met Data Climate Change Extreme Events Inadequate Dissemination System Lack of Awareness 23

24 Existing Capability & Capacity Technology Existing Deficiency Remarks Meteorological Data Observatories Planned AWS Planned Wind Profilers NIL 8 Planned Hydrological Data Radars River Gauges (Telemetric) Dissemination System SMS/Cell Broadcast 7 (Out dated)?? SMS (Limited) Cell Broadcast Planned Radars One New (Mardan) 2 Replacement (KC & ISB) 4 Planned (World Bank) RG Planned Awareness FM Radio NIL FM Radio Planned 24

25 Recommendations Existing EW system is not appropriate to disseminate the information to communities and emergency responders The existing system may be transformed into Effective EWS, by addressing the following GAPS: Availability of Hydro-met data Improved coordination among nodal organizations Effective dissemination system Create awareness in stakeholders & vulnerable communities 25

26 Acknowledgements: Dr. Muhammad Hanif, Director and Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan, Director Pakistan Meteorological Department Thank you! 26