FROM FLOOD FORECAST TO FLOOD FIGHTING Georg Johann , Tiel
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1 FROM FLOOD FORECAST TO FLOOD FIGHTING Georg Johann , Tiel Dutch-German exchange of knowledge and experience COMING FROM FORECASTS TO EFFECTIVE FLOOD DEFENDING EMERGENCY MEASURES
2 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Introduction Emscher catchment Runoff characteristics Hydrometric data Flood management Flood forecasting system Dike data service Conclusions
3 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Emscher catchment Population: 2,3 Mio. Area: 865 km² Dikes: 115 km
4 Our catchment area Emscher and Lippearea show different catchment characteristics Lippeverband area Emscher area land use other urban area agriculture forest water 4
![Development share [-] Building development](/docs-images/82/86217345/images/5-4.jpg "share Flood events Königstraße level Trend")
5 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Emscher catchment Runoff [m 2 /s] Development share [-] Building development share Flood events Königstraße level Trend
6 Catchment characteristics of the Emscher Lippe - region Concentration time of flood discharges: Lippe: 2-4 days Floods generated by continuous rain and snowmelt Emscher: 6-12 hours Lippe-tributaries: 2-6 hours Emscher-tributaries: less than 2 hours Floods resulting from heavy rain 6
7 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Flood management Emscher flood HQ 100 in the floodplain
8 Emscher and Lippe catchments With floodplains and 200 km dikes
9 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Flood management Department for basic research and services Operates all hydrometric measurements Provides all hydrometric data Operates the hydrologic models and provides the forecast Hydrologist on duty (8 persons and 1 per week) gives daily situation report District preparedness teams Superordinate flood control center Operative branch of our organisation Operates all pumping stations, treatment plants, retention basins and rivers Divided in 5 districts Incorporates nearly 850 employees Responsible for 342 km streams, 107 pumping stations, 327 km² polder areas and 115 km dikes
10 Flood early warning system requirements Radar data visualization Radar data analysis Display of measurement data Hydrologic modelling Flood forecast Flood early warning system 10
11 Radar data exchange server Technical infrastructure 11 water boards data transfer volume: 3 GB / day 11
12 Flood Early Warning system (FEWS) Server architecture HD DWD Salzburg LANUV ZAMGNRW EG/LV RV Test system Operational system data input WVER WV Forecasting Shell Server Server at EGLV Webserver Master Controller Zentrale central Datenbank database local clients Client EG/LV Client RV Client WVER Client WV 12
13 Flood Early Warning System EG/LV measurement data DWD radar + measurement data DWD met. forecast EG/LV Online-Models Emscher and Lippe areal precipitation based on watershed runoff-prediction up to 7 days Current status report of flood situation Thursday 0.4 mm precipitation sum Friday 0.6 mm measurement (08:30 14: ) 27.2 mm prediction Saturday + Sunday 0.7 mm prediction mm prediction Emscher Friday Saturday Sunday warning pre warning 13
14 Flood Early Warning System EG/LV measurement data DWD radar + measurement data DWD met. forecast EG/LV measurement data EG/LV Online-Models Emscher and Lippe areal precipitation based on watershed runoff-prediction up to 7 days Current status report of flood situation Thursday 0.4 mm precipitation sum Friday 0.6 mm measurement (08:30 14: ) 27.2 mm prediction Saturday + Sunday 0.7 mm prediction mm prediction Emscher Friday Saturday Sunday warning pre warning
15 Flood Early Warning System EG/LV measurement data DWD radar + measurement data DWD met. forecast DWD radar + measurement data EG/LV Online-Models Emscher and Lippe areal precipitation based on watershed runoff-prediction up to 7 days Current status report of flood situation Thursday 0.4 mm precipitation sum Friday 0.6 mm measurement (08:30 14: ) 27.2 mm prediction Saturday + Sunday 0.7 mm prediction mm prediction Emscher Friday Saturday Sunday warning pre warning
16 Flood Early Warning System EG/LV measurement data DWD radar + measurement data DWD met. forecast DWD met. forecast EG/LV Online-Models Emscher and Lippe areal precipitation based on watershed runoff-prediction up to 7 days Current status report of flood situation Thursday 0.4 mm precipitation sum Friday 0.6 mm measurement (08:30 14: ) 27.2 mm prediction Saturday + Sunday 0.7 mm prediction mm prediction Emscher Friday Saturday Sunday warning pre warning
17 Flood Early Warning System EG/LV measurement data DWD radar + measurement data DWD met. forecast EG/LV Online-Models EG/LV Online-Models Emscher and Lippe areal precipitation based on watershed runoff-prediction up to 7 days Current status report of flood situation Thursday 0.4 mm precipitation sum Friday 0.6 mm measurement (08:30 14: ) 27.2 mm prediction Saturday + Sunday 0.7 mm prediction mm prediction Emscher Friday Saturday Sunday warning pre warning
18 Flood Early Warning System EG/LV measurement data DWD radar + measurement data DWD met. forecast EG/LV Online-Models EG/LV Online-Models Emscher and Lippe areal precipitation based on watershed runoff-prediction up to 7 days Current status report of flood situation Thursday 0.4 mm precipitation sum Emscher Automated SMS- warning and alert system Friday 0.6 mm measurement (08:30 14: ) 27.2 mm prediction Saturday + Sunday 0.7 mm prediction mm prediction Friday Saturday Sunday warning pre warning
19 Numerical Weather predicition The actual numerical weather prediction model system of the DWD Local scale: COSMO DE Regional scale: ICON-EU Global scale: ICON Boundary conditions Chain of models with successively finer resolution One prediction (model output) every 12 h, 6h, 3 h 19
20 Numerical Weather prediction Numerical weather prediction models (NWP) of the DWD Grid scale Grid scale Grid scale vertical layers vertical layers vertical layers prediction prediction prediction Pixel size 17.5 mio. grid points 9.5 mio. grid points 265 mio. grid points 20
21 Numerical weater predicition Rainfall- Runoff predicition in the Emscher catchment Good for the hydrologist on duty, only one predicition to deal with But remember: atmosphere is a chaotic system, the one true prediction doesn t exist 21
22 Uncertainties of forecast Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) 1 week cyclone 1 hour Chaotic systems atmosphere the one accurate forecast does not exist, but there are weather conditions with a lower uncertainty regarding space and time
23 Uncertainties of forecast Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) Variation of sensitive variables: humidity, temperature, Different global weather models 20 model runs with different results, but the same probability -> Large variation = index for uncertainty
24 Ensemble Prediction Systems Challenges for flood prediction in local catchments 24
25 Ensemble Predicition Systems Challenges for flood forecast in local catchments 25
26 Precipitation warning messages and call of service Overview discharge year 2015 (1st. Nov. 30th. Oct.) 1st. half-year 2nd. half-year Discharge year 2015 DWD warning messages thunder storm / heavy rain continuous rain severe weather call of service - hydrologist exceeding of critical river levels
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30 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Dike data service Present situation: Every 15 min map current freeboard Next step: use discharge to calc. freeboard Next step: use 6 hour forecast Next step: use 24 hour forecast Representative gauging station used for calc. of freeboard in a certain dike reach REMAINING FREEBOARD FLOODrisk 2016 Lyon
31 Online dike toping hazard
32 The fragility curve Summary of the reliability / failure probability of a structure depending to the stress (e.g. water level [m])
33 Model of the structure type dike
34 fragility curves reliability / failure probability Alle Mechanismen Wahrscheinlichkeit [-] 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0-0,05-0, Wasserstand [m] 5,5 m (Kronenhöhe) Überströmen Piping Sellmeijer Makrostabilität Landseite Mikrostabilität Landseite Makrostabilität Wasserseite Mikrostabilität Wasserseite
35 fragility curve Summary of the reliability / failure probability 5,5 m (Kronenhöhe)
36 standardised fragility curves P(faliure/hw) [-] 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0, ,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 Wassererstand am Deich - standardisiert [-] homogene Abschnitte Emscherdeiche km 0 km 19
37 Integration of the fragility curve in the operational flood management system of the EGLV Dike-data-service system (fast data access) 50 % Water level per section Current or predicted water level in the Emscher 1_km0,350_R 2_km0,450_L 3_km1,700_L 70 % 0 %
38 Flood forecasting Emscher experiences Conclusions Flood comes very fast Fast data transfer and models Little chance to react Forecast quality is crucial Dank u voor uw aandacht FLOODrisk 2016 LyonPrecaution is the best thing we can do
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