Tropical Cyclone Decision Support Tool for IFRC operations in Latin America and the Caribbean

Transcription

1 Tropical Cyclone Decision Support Tool for IFRC operations in Latin America and the Caribbean Eric Holthaus, Caitlin Kopcik, Daniel Osgood Presented by Daniel Osgood The International Research Institute for Climate and Society Columbia University

2 Talk overview How can the Red Cross use climate forecasts and information in disaster preparation? Potential for disaster risk management: Existing climate information might help IFRC better prepare for future storms Enhanced/streamlined use of existing climate information might save $ and lives If implemented effectively, can be used to manage decadal/long-term climate trends But how? Most vulnerable Red Cross National Societies face institutional barriers to using climate information THIS IS DISASTER PREPARADNESS NOT STORM DAMAGE INSURANCE

3 Decadal trends of hurricane activity Over half of all hurricane-related mortality since 1950 has occurred in the last 15 years. Could be Decadal, long term trends Increased data collection Increased development of high risk areas Need to improve risk management to stay on top of changing risk The IFRC seeks to limit the risk to lives and livelihoods by managing this risk more effectively.

4 Greater risk in developing countries Hurricane Vulnerability Index: Least developed countries have greatest risk of hurricane mortality Red Cross National Societies in these countries face greater institutional constraints: Limited financial/technical resources Fragmented preparation/response networks Slow emergency appeal process Information overload As a result, the IRI is partnering with the IFRC to streamline hurricane preparedness operations in the Latin America and the Caribbean region

5 IRI-IFRC partnership to manage climate risk A gap remains between available forecast information and the needs of decision-makers Great potential for reducing-risk exists through increasing advance appeals and streamlining the appeals process In response, the IRI-IFRC effort is: Focusing on humanitarian response (not damage) Promoting preparative planning Organizing existing operations Pre-linking forecasts with actions Identifying no-regrets actions Creating a more efficient appeals process Facilitating regional coordination Uses existing forecast products (NOAA, CATHALAC) Potential for insurance-like financial mechanisms (allows for better budgeting/planning) This process could be enhanced by ex ante agreements between local and regional institutions and action plans tied to specific forecast thresholds.

6 Example: How to apply forecast in decisionmaking Hurricane Gustav Zone/Regional Level Forecast PADRU Update #5: 0500 EST, 26-Aug/08 Status: Medium-High Potential (Orange). (> 25%) for Multiple landfalls over next 5 days. Areas of imminent interest: Haiti Areas of increasing interest: Cuba, Jamaica Areas of decreasing interest: Dominican Republic, Bahamas

7 Example: Hurricane Gustav decision worksheet

8 Implications for managing decadal climate trends Example was for individual storm forecast But project as much for understanding changing budgets and decisions given changing seasonal, decadal, long term probabilities Looking for implications of alternate decadal modeling explorations on preparedness budgets, how do they change what activities might make sense? By quantifying a systematic approach to hurricane preparedness, year-to-year budgeting and activities are streamlined Coordination of national societies at the regional level can lead to a portfolio effect and reduce overall global cost of preparedness Insurance-like mechanisms can leverage risk reduction benefits worldwide (multi-hazards, multiregions, multi-enso states)

9 Thank you! Advice, comments, collaboration welcome!