After 2017 Is the Future Predictable?
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1 After 2017 Is the Future Predictable? Presented by: Evan Thompson Director, Meteorological Service, Jamaica At Caribbean Insurance Conference, Montego Bay, Jamaica June 4, 2018
2 What s Happening with the Weather??? Presentation to the 38 th Annual Caribbean Insurance Conference Hyatt Ziva and Zilara, Rose Hall, Montego Bay, Jamaica June 4, 2018
3 Bomb Cyclone on US East Coast
4 Snow in the Sahara Desert
5 Floods and Mudslides in Montecito, California
6 Wildfires in North America
7 Hurricanes in the Caribbean
8 2017 CLIMATE FACTS 2017 had highest economic losses from severe weather and climate events Extreme weather events are most prominent risk facing humanity: World Economic Forum s Global Risks Report 2018
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11 Global Temperatures 2017 saw the third highest temperatures ever recorded 2017 was the warmest year on record without an El Niño event Two highest temperatures ever recorded occurred in 2016 and 2015 respectively The Top 6 highest temperatures were recorded during the past decade The highest temperature recorded in Kingston for last 25 years occurred on August 3, 2017 at 36.9 C
12 Jamaica s Rainfall 450 COMPARISON OF 2017 RAINFALL WITH MEAN Series1 Series Flood Event in Montego Bay, November
13 Flood Rains May 13-17, 2017 Highest 6-hour rainfall accumulation of 197.8mm in Middlesex, St Ann Maximum accumulated rainfall for May was 466.3mm in Cave Valley, St Ann Stations in central parishes exceeded 30- year Means by over 200% Two stations exceeded their 100-year return periods
14 Flood Rains June 16-18, 2017 Highest 24-hr rainfall accumulation was 365mm recorded on May 17 in the parish of Manchester Maximum accumulated rainfall for June was 396.8mm in the parish of Manchester Six stations in southern parishes exceeded 30- year Means by over 200% One station in Manchester (southcentral) exceeded its 100- yr return period
15 Hurricane Season 2017
16 Hurricane Season 2017 Hurricane Maria 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season was the costliest ever for the United States Pre-Season Tropical Cyclone ARLENE over the NE Atlantic Tropical Storm BRET moves across Trinidad earliest named storm in MDR Tropical Storm DON passes south of Grenada HARVEY weakens to a Wave passing south of Jamaica then becomes a Hurricane causing unprecedented floods in Texas Hurricane IRMA devastates the Leewards, BVI, USVI and TCI Hurricane JOSE nears the Leewards Hurricane MARIA hits Dominica and Puerto Rico Hurricane OPHELIA heads to Europe
17 Could this be Climate Change???
18 Expected Impacts of Climate Change Temperatures: Warmer nights and hotter days. Rainy Seasons: More intense rainfall episodes with greater chance of flooding and soil erosion. Dry Seasons/Droughts: Longer dry spells and more severe droughts. Shorelines: Rising sea levels and depleted beaches. Hurricanes: More intense hurricanes and more hurricane days. More significant storm surge flooding. Other impacts on food security health, etc.
19 Could this be Climate Change? Climate Change determination will require: Increased remote surveillance Continuous monitoring of weather parameters Deeper analysis of meteorological data
20 Could this be Climate Change? Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management Climate Studies Group Mona Increased collaboration among local, regional and international stakeholders Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology National Hurricane Center METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, JAMAICA Private Sector Entities World Meteorological Organization
21 The world has been seeing dramatic changes in weather phenomena Jamaica has seen variations in climate in recent years The climate change scenario predicts changes similar to those being experienced Could this be a new norm? Presentation to the 38 th Caribbean Insurance Conference Hotel Ziva and Zilara, Rose Hall, Montego Bay, Jamaica June 4, 2018
22 After 2017 Is the Future Predictable? Presented by: Evan Thompson Director, Meteorological Service, Jamaica At Caribbean Insurance Conference, Montego Bay, Jamaica June 4, 2018
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