Environment Canada and TO2015 Sailing. Paul Joe

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Tamsyn Ross
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1 Environment Canada and TO2015 Sailing Paul Joe

2 Background The PanAm 2015 games will bring international guests to the Toronto area. The terrorism threat is not considered substantial. The games are not at the same level as the Olympic Games Large crowds will gather at multiple venues at the same time that are above the normal situation. Environment Canada and other federal departments received Treasury Board funding to support it s mandate for safety and security of Canadians and their guests. TB supported EC will support 20+ other essential federal departments (RCMP, OPP, etc) EC will provide venue specific warnings (vs broad public warnings, not forecasts) To support venue warnings, weather stations will be deployed at the venues (Mandated mesonet) EC will issue Air Quality alerts

3 Background EC has a very positive experience with aligning and accelerating their programs (operational and research) using high profile events. Particularly the Vancouver 2010 Olympics. The Assistant Deputy Minister charged the EC Pan AM 2015 Project Team to develop an internal project(s) to take advantage of the firm deadlines that the Pan Am 2015 provide to accelerate and aligned existing operational program and research projects

4 Science Showcase: Acceleration and Alignment of EC Programs and Projects Surface Met Sensor and Buoy program Upper Air and Radar program Data Management System Network of Networks High Resolution NWP Nowcasting Lightning research Metareas lake and wave modeling UV monitoring AQ monitoring AQ high res modelling Roadside Health Canada syndromic research AQHI products/services Public Health Services Dessemination /Services Alerting and Prototyping Forecast system development and demonstration Virtually all signature projects, MRD programs are connected.

5 PANAM2015 Showcase is all about program alignment and accelerations so that: There is an opportunity to align existing programs into a common vision There is an opportunity to accelerate and make progress with each program The resources are largely from existing programs but programs can use the PANAM2015 brand to justify requests. PANAM2015 can provide some seed or influence resources. First slide shows the general monitoring set up and program alignments. Not every is there e.g. AQ Cruiser, MOE sites; 3 Pan AM sites will be part of the Observing Program after Pan Am Second slide shows the forecast systems/services that are engaged as part of the showcase. This enables a showcase demonstration project with the end users such as Toronto Public Health, Kingston Public Health for the use of weather data for syndromic surveillance alerts (i.e., hospital emergency services planning would be based on a combination of increase in certain types of emergencies (e.g., heat stroke) when certain kinds of weather happens AND predicted (e.g., heat))

6 Yellow circles are mesonet sites using compact weather stations, including a Black Globe sensor for heat/health studies. Mesonet and the science plan is focussed on monitoring, characterizing, predicting and validating the Lake Breeze in the horizontal using the mesonet, radar, lidar and in the vertical using remote sensing technology at supersites (Pearson and Whitby) and include vertically pointing radar, sodars, lidars, radiometers and UAV s (if they can be flown). A buoy is deployed for validating of wave spectra and direction lake and wave modeling. A 3D lightning mapping array is part of an R&D initiative and will produce 3D mapping lightning strokes see separate animation of 1.2 sec of data show incloud lightning. Lidar and radar (flat panel phased array) are planned for deployment and testing. These have doppler capability and if deployed in pairs, can produce 2D wind fields or can retrieve wind profiles.. Lidar for clear air and radar when precipitating. AQ sensors will also be deployed. UV monitoring program is being re-initiated.

7 AQ Mandated Mesonet NRP 5 min Radar Scanning Sev Wx / Nowcasting AQHI AQ Cruiser Black Globe T (HC) UV Monitoring Roadside AQ Renewal/Upper Air Renewal/Surface NoN UAV Met/AQ Met Sensor 3 Auto8 Legacy Renewal/ Upper Air Aviation Nowcasting NRP Renewal/Upper Air Air Quality Urban NWP/HPC Lake Breeze Severe wx/wem - Lightning Renewal NRP X Band Phased Array WEM/Buoy Renewal/Upper Air Doppler LIDAR Air/Health Quality AQ Site MetAreas Wave Buoy Spectra/Dir Lightning Mapping Array

8 Lots of modeling AQ, 250 meter NWP. Upper right hand image shows the wind field from R&D 250 m model that is able to capture the Lake Breeze. This is part of the showcase. The current operational model at time of the games will be a 2.5km model still very good. Other images show forecast system development, nowcasting for a point that blends observations and models, heat stress prediction.

9 Forecast/Nowcast System GEM MACH 2.5 km 250 m GEM Urban 2.5 km GEM MACH AQ (HPC) 250 m GEM Urban Model (HPC) Wave/Lake Model (MetAreas) NextGEN (MetObjects) Point Nowcasting Health Services Societal User Impacts NexGen- icast/metobjects Wave/Lake Modeling 250 m GEM Heat Stress Can-NOW Nowcasting

Lidar Example Backscatter Intensity Doppler Radial Velocity No data due to blocking by building We have a scanning Doppler lidar which can be programmed to scan in 3D.

10 Lidar Example Backscatter Intensity Doppler Radial Velocity No data due to blocking by building We have a scanning Doppler lidar which can be programmed to scan in 3D. The image on the right shows the radial velocity in a15 km x 15 km domain around the lidar. The lidar was in PPI scanning mode red or warm velocities are away from the lidar and blue or cool velocities are toward the lidar. Note that the data has 10 m spatial resolution (range resolution) The overall flow pattern is from the west to the east but the fine scale striations in the red area are fine scale wind feature due to wind speed or wind direction changes. Smooth winds produce smooth images. I interpret this as horizontal convective rolls the axis of the rolls are parallel to the mean wind direction. In Bethwaite s book, he calls these ribbons see next slide for a sketch. I would like to collaborative with TO2015/Sailing to interpret and validate these micro wind features. I understand the sailors are sensitive to this scale of wind. This type of imagery would require some high level expertise and/or training. When the second lidar is available, 2D wind fields can be derived. Research radars will be available.

GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Project (GURME)

GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment Project (GURME) Page 1 July-26-16 V. Bouchet, Chair A/Dir National operations, Meteorological Service of Canada, ECCC GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment