Understanding Climate Change Scenarios and its Implications to to Agriculture Livelihoods

Transcription

1 Understanding Climate Change Scenarios and its Implications to to Agriculture Livelihoods Presented at the The Workshop for Capacity Building on Climate Change Impact Assessments and Adaptation Planning in the Asia-Pacific Region: Technical Review of Background Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation January 27-28, 2016 Hazel Arandez-Tanchuling Secretariat Coordinator Rice Watch and Action Network (R1)

2 A DRR-CCA Program for LGUs to benefit rural communities Promoting Resiliency and a Climate-informed Agriculture and Fisheries Localization of climate services by the LGU Season-long resiliency field school

3 : CrFS Implementing LGUs Gerona Tarlac Calasiao Pangasinan Guimba, Nueva Ecija Munoz, NE Daanbantayan, Cebu Bantayan, Cebu Madridejos, Cebu Batad Iloilo San Luis Aurora, Gen.Nakar, Quezon Pila Laguna Irosin, Sorsogon Castilla, Sorsogon Sorsogon City Sta.Magdalena Catbalogan,Samar Dolores Samar, Ormoc City, McArthur,Leyte Basey, Samar, Salcedo, Samar Marabut, Samar Lawaan, Samar Dumingag Zambo Pigcawayan North Cotabato Alamada North Cotabato Tubigon Bohol Jabonga Agusan Esperanza, SK Bagumbayan SK Isulan, SK Lambayong SK Koronadal City

4 Why set up CrFS Damage Caused by Tropical Cyclone Data from OCD, as cited by PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Stats: : Affected families: 3,016,596 Casualties: 26,835 persons Cost of Damages: Agriculture: PhP 231,03 Billion Infrastructure: PhP Billion Private properties: PhP13.60 Billion Total cost of damages: Ph Billion

5 Historical Damages and Losses of El Nino TOTAL RICE CORN YEAR Total Area Affected (ha) Prod n Loss Volume (mt) Value (P Billion) Total Area Affected (ha) Prod n Loss Volume (mt) Value (P Billion) Total Area Affected (ha) Prod n Loss Volume (mt) Value (P Billion) REMARKS (Aug-Apr) 183, , , , , , Moderate El Niño (Apr-May) 677,441 1,056, , , , , Strong El Niño (Apr-Mar) 159, , , , ,219 93, Moderate El Niño (Jun-Feb) 204, , ,624 34, , , Weak El Niño Aug-Feb 224, , ,214 25, , , Weak El Niño (Jun-May) 555, M , , , , Strong El Niño (Sep-August) 114, , ,665 58, , , Strong El Niño Total include losses to rice, corn, vegetables, other crops, livestock & fisheries

6 Understanding the Future: Making Sense of Climate Change Scenarios FUTURE PAST Increased awareness level of different sectors in the community to climate change and its potential impacts Current

7 General Information Needs and Sources of Information Evidences of disasters especially CC or climaterelated impacts and other Projected Changes Sources of Information Community, records Climate profile records of PAGASA LGU records PAGASA and local weather station Tools Historical Climate profile of the area Timelines, seasonal calendar Trend analysis Maps or participatory mapping Climate impact benchmarking record (if they have an existing observation station) Record analysis 2020 and 2050 Climate scenarios of PAGASA Potential Impacts of changes in climate Community. Local and external experts Trends analysis identification of criteria, solutions and ranking Validation workshop with communities, local and external experts Adaptation Options Funding Commitment Community. Local and external experts LGU, NGAs, Others identification of criteria, solutions and ranking Validation workshop with communities, local and external experts

8 Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Tools Mix of tools (use of community-based, participatory approaches) FGD tools Time-related Historical Narrative Timelines Trend Analysis Seasonal Calendar Spatial Mapping Resource Transect Community Preferences Ranking Community Visioning Relationships Venn/circle diagram 24-hr Activity Profiles Hazard matrix Analysis Problem tree Cause and effect Key Informant Interview Semistructur ed guide

9 Climate Information for Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning Decadal climate trend analysis Climate normals/trends Hazard/risk mapping Medium term to Long-term strategic planning Infrastructures planning, retrofitting Climate change scenarios Climate Change projections Long-term strategic planning

10 Historical Climate Data

11 Usual Climate-related Hazards and Exposed Livelihoods

12 Liveliho ods Rice Hazards Typhoon, heavy rains Strong winds flooding Extended/pro longed rains Drought Risk of a specific livelihood to certain hazards Destroys standing crops especially those at the height of flowering, ripening, particularly when variety used is susceptible to lodging Causes grains to fall Causes lodging Prone to BLB infestation Washes out newly transplanted seedlings and sown rice seeds Becomes prone to kuhol/snail infestation Especially during harvesting months, limits solar drying thus can cause rotting of grains resulting to lower quality rice Causes stunted growth Affects yield, if happening during reproductive stage, causing unfilled grains monsoons Corn Strong winds Causes lodging flooding Causes farm flooding, increased pests and diseases infestations, decreased tiller formation and prolongs maturity Affects productivity especially during early stage Vegetabl es Sugarca ne Heavy rains Hot temp flooding Strong winds and heavy rains Affects growing stage Causes wilting-thus resulting to low production Increase incidence of bacteria and fungal diseases Possible damage to harvested vegetables due to delays in delivery Plant lodges easily during 3-4 months after transplanting

13 CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR GERONA, TARLAC Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Climatology and Agrometeorology Division

14 Change in Minimum Temperature ( C) Month Change in Minimum Temperature ( C) January 1.2 February 1.5 March 1.5 April 1.7 May 2.0 June 1.7 July 1.7 August 1.7 September 1.6 October 1.5 November 1.4 December 1.4 Projected Change in Minimum Temperature in Gerona, Tarlac in 2050 (HadGEM2-AO RCP 4.5)

15 Change in Maximum Temperature ( C) Month Change in Maximum Temperature ( C) January 1.1 February 1.3 March 1.4 April 1.5 May 2.3 June 1.6 July 1.7 August 1.7 September 1.6 October 1.6 November 1.6 December Projected Change in Maximum Temperature in Gerona, Tarlac in 2050 (HadGEM2-AO RCP 4.5) Source:Worldclim Data

16 Change in Rainfall (mm) 40 Projected Change in Rainfall in Gerona, Tarlac in 2050 (HadGEM2-AO RCP 4.5)

17 What is the present? Decadal climate trend analysis Climate change scenarios Day to Day weather and impact records Climate normals/trends Hazard/risk mapping Climate Change projections Latest weather and impact records Medium term to Long-term strategic planning Infrastructures planning, retrofitting Long-term strategic planning New tecnologies such drought/flood resistant crops Establish current disaster thresholds for use in climate-based early warning service

18 Localized Climate Services Done by Local Governments (1) Local Weather Observation (2) Farm Weather Advisory Creation (3) Dissemination of Advisories (4) Weather and Impacts Benchmarking/ Risk Assessments

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20 AWS DATA 2015 (WITH EL NIÑO FORECAST) 2015 AWS DATA JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC GERONA NORMALS (AWS) RAINFALL (mm) MIN. TEMP. ( C) HIGH TEMP. ( C) WIND SPEED (M/S) MAX WIND SPEED (M/S) AVE NO. OF DAYS W/ RAIN MAX. RAINY DAY FOR THE MONTH HIGHEST DAILY RAINFALL (mm) Sept.1 DATES OF RAIN Jan.18 Feb.15 n/a Apr.21 May.26 jun.11 jul.17 Aug.22 9 Oct.18 n/a Dec.18 date and time observed reported community impact EXTREME WEATHER EVENT 2015 description of extreme event no. of affected farmers climate data record March 27,28,30, livestock and human extreme temp minimal ave C for 3day 2015 stress May 2,2015 livestock stress extreme temp minimal 38.4 C May 6,2015 livestock stress extreme temp minimal 37.6 C july,5-18,2015 flooding typhoon "Falcon" signal#1 200 farmers 5day rain with 30-50mmdaily Oct.18,2015 Dec.16,2015 flooding,damaged crops&infra flooding,damaged crops Typhoon "Lando" signal# 2 2,400 farmers/ kph wind w/ 120mm 2,400 farmers/ 200 families families rain/5h Typhoon " NONA" SIGNAL #1 400 farmers rainfall of 128mm in 5hours

21 Integrating past, present and future data to create future scenarios and possible climate change impacts especially to livelihoods J F M A M J J A S O N D Normal rainfall ( Projecti ons % 38% 11% 10% 28% 31% 12% 12% 30% 2015 reading Ave since they localized

22 Climate Information for Adaptation Planning and Risk Management Decadal climate trend analysis Climate normals/tre nds Hazard/risk mapping Medium term to Long-term strategic planning Infrastructures planning, retrofitting Risk Assessment/ Adaptation Planning Climate change scenarios Climate Change projections Long-term strategic planning New tecnologies such drought/flood resistant crops Day to Day weather and impact recording benchmarking Latest weather records Establishing current disaster thresholdsfor use in climate-based early warning service Short to medium term weather forecasts Daily, Weekly weather forecast and farmweather, Flood Advisories Short-term planning Emergency Preparedness Risk Management Seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts Seasonal forecast Hazard/ risk mapping Mediumterm operational planning Risk assessment and management

23 FARM WEATHER ADVISORY CREATION PAGASA providing weather/climate forecast needs for early warning purposes LGU providing analysis on possible impacts and recommended advise to communities Seasonal climate outlook (4-6 months) 9 days and 10 day weather forecast Extreme events warning/forecast What are the exposed livelihoods in the area for the particular period? What is the forecast and hazards that may negatively impact on these livelihoods? possible risk to specific livelihoods by each hazard given the stage of crops/other livelihoods; risks management options that are sustainable and climate friendly solutions

24 Sample 10 day farm-weather advisory provided to farmers

25 RISKS MANAGEMENT ADVISORY FOR FARMERS

26 Dissemination of Early Warning Advise to Communities Manual weather boards displaying weather forecasts and agriculture/fishing risks management advise

27 Dissemination of Early Warning Advise for agri-fish livelihoods Short Messaging Service to disseminate advise to farmers

28 Dissemination of Early Warning Advise for agri-fish livelihoods SOME LGUS HAVE THEIR OWN RADIO PROGRAM

29 Dissemination of Early Warning Advise for agri-fish livelihoods 10 day Weather Forecast as part of resiliency field school sessions 1. Community analysis on possible risks of weather to their crops/livelihoods 2. Collective discussion of risks management measures farmers can take thru the weekly AESA

30 Making Climate Information More Accessible: Some Lessons and Conclusions LGUs are in a better position to localize because they are there on the ground and can directly provide warning immediately; The program is appealing to LGUs because of the project s potentials not just for agriculture and fisheries but also to further climate-inform other programs and services; To understand climate change scenarios, communities/lgus need to understand their past and current climate and its local impacts.

31 Making Climate Information More Accessible: Some Lessons and Conclusions The presence of PAGASA the Philippine s national meteorological agency---in the project is critical and their willingness and openness to continuously develop new products to better cater to local government partners is commendable; Localized climate services is being introduced as a new function to LGUs and a new direct clientele of PAGASA thus, it will require regular budget allocation and staff support; LGUs are very much willing to provide counterpart support for the implementation of the project;

32 Making Climate Information More Accessible: Some Lessons and Conclusions Based on experience, farmers/communities demand for information once they get used to receiving regular climate information and advise; We have seen farmers avoid potential losses because of the provision of weather information/ seasonal climate information and advise during extreme events With manuals of operation already produced by R1, installation in other sites have become faster;

33 THANK YOU