Introduction. Recent Developments in Observational Network. Analytical tools and Information Delivery system Limitations/Shortcomings

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1 Introduction Recent Developments in Observational Network Analytical tools and Information Delivery system Limitations/Shortcomings

2 FACILITIES UPGRADING Weather Surveillance Radars Baguio DOST GIA ongoing Subic OP ongoing Tagaytay OP ongoing Aparri JICA Grant Basic design on July 2008 Baler DOST GIA ongoing Virac (JICA Grant) Mactan OP ongoing Virac (JICA Grant) Tampakan GAA ongoing Hinatuan GAA ongoing

3 FACILITIES UPGRADING Upper Air Stations Laoag WMO VCP completed Tanay TECO completed Legaspi DOST GIA completed Cebu DOST GIA completed Davao OP Funding approved

4 FACILITIES UPGRADING World Area Forecast System (WAFS) Quezon City DOST GIA completed Mactan DOST GIA completed

5 FACILITIES UPGRADING Weather Satellite Quezon City (MTSAT, NOAA, MODIS, FY2D) completed Mactan (MTSAT) completed Cagayan de Oro (WEFAX) proposed

6 FACILITIES UPGRADING Meteorological Buoys (funding approved by OP) Sibuyan Sea Surigao Strait Sibuyan Sea Surigao Strait

7 Legend: VSAT, 128 to 384 Kbps Aparri Radar MEASAT Baguio Radar WFFC (Hub) Baler Radar Virac Radar PROPOSED PAGASA RADAR VSAT NETWORK USTDA Feasibility Study on-going Mactan Radar Guiuan Radar Hinatuan Radar Tampakan Radar

8 Schematic Diagram of Translation of Global Climate Forecasts/Information ormation Into Local Climate Forecasts Tailored for Various End-Users GLOBAL CLIMATE FORECASTS SSTA PCPN TEMPERATURE NEAR REAL-TIME MONITORING & DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS EVOLUTION OF CLIMATIC PATTERNS PRESSURE/WIND SYSTEMS ITCZ & MONSOON ACTIVITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY TRENDS/ TENDENCIES INTEGRATION/ ASSESSMENT FORUM DISCUSSION/ CONSULTATION PAST ENSO DOCUMENTS DIAGNOSTICS/STATISTICAL STUDIES OF ENSO EVENTS CLIMATIC INFORMATION/ STATISTICS ANALOGUES/MAPS VARIABILITY INDICES ETC LOCAl CLIMATE FORECAST/ UPDATES / OUTLOOK (MONTHLY / SEASONAL) RAINFALL TEMPERATURE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY MONSOON ACTIVITY ONSET / TERMINATION QUALITATIVE / PROBABILITIES TAILORED INFORMATION FOR VARIOUS END-USERS AGRICULTURE WATER RESOURCES ENVIRONMENT HEALTH DISASTER MANAGEMENT OTHERS

9 Methodologies and Procedure Local and Synoptic Systems Rainfall Analysis Temperature Analysis Global Numerical Model Revision W/ corrections DRAFT Forum discussion & consultation End-users/planners No Correction Final Output

10 Analytical Tools Statistical Models Crop-weather models (DSSAT) Remote Sensing and GIS

11 Operational Products Monthly Weather Situation & Outlook Annual / Seasonal Climate Outlook Farm weather forecasts and advisories El Niño / La Niña Advisories Specialized forecasts tailor-made for clients specification Press Release on ENSO event, Onset of rain, etc.

12 APPLICATIONS OF REMOTE SENSING TO AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY Crop Monitoring Identification of crop Area estimation of crop Estimation and prediction of yield Crop damage assessment Drought Monitoring Identification of Fishing Zones

13 NDVI values range from -.1 to.703 and are unitless. Values greater than.1 generally denote increasing degrees in the greeness and intensity of vegetation. Values between 0 and.1 are commonly characteristic of rocks and bare soil, and values less than 0 sometimes indicate clouds, rain, and snow.

14 A vegetation index (VI) time series provides a basis for assessing the status of crops around the World during the growing season crop monitoring. Current and historical growing seasons are depicted by satellite-derived vegetation index (VI) data. These data are used to augment forecasts of crop yield for the FAS regions. Graphs of seasonality can also be plotted using time-series satellite data. Agricultural Production Regions and MODIS Mosaic images were created by the NASA MODIS Rapid Response System team to overlap agricultural regions identified by USDA-FAS-PECAD. New MODIS mosaics are produced daily for each agricultural region in false color and true color from the Terra and Aqua satellites at 1km, 500m and 250m resolution. These near real-time images can be viewed and downloaded after clicking on a region outlined in red.

15 Final Paddy Area Map Class Double rice Single rice Others Total Area (ha) 180,430 66, , ,786

16 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

17 VEGETATION INDEX

18 HOTSPOT DETECTION

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20 Information Delivery System Tri media Internet Climate forum PAGASA local station Inter-agency Meetings Workshops

21 Public Awareness Program Iloilo

22 CLIMATE FORUM

23 Flow of SCF PAGASA PIDS LSU End user PAGASA AGROMET STN & Agricultural offices

24 National Workshop on the Use of Climate Information for Agriculture and Water Resources Working Group No. 3 Capacity Building/Sustainability Requirements

25 Providers: Issues - Insufficiency/scarcity and/or distribution of rain gauges, - Sustainability of existing rain gauges - Difficulty in presenting forecasts/information to layman s language Intermediaries: - Difficulty in interpretation of forecasts and information - Lack or poor communication between providers, intermediaries and users Users/Stakeholders: - Difficulty in interpretation of forecasts and translation to usable form - Delayed receipt of forecasts/information

26 Opportunities Provision of funding from calamity fund of local government unit to sustain the establishment of rain gauges Invite PAGASA representative in Mayors League to talk about the importance of climate data & info to solicit funding Conduct a workshop for local engineers for installation of rain gauges Look for sponsors like NGOs for funding of projects Development of rainfall models for local simulation

27 Opportunities Training and retraining of providers for upgrading of knowledge and skills Propose to DILG to create a permanent position of weather observer in the local government for continuity of operation and knowledge to lessen/avoid retraining Conduct regular interactions thru meetings Continuous solicitation of feedback from end users

28 Opportunities Strengthen the linkages between providers, LGUs, thru conduct of workshops, dialogues, etc. Improve communication facilities Conduct public information campaign thru radio, brochures, word of mouth Involve students in public information drive Conduct seminars to enhance knowledge of science teachers in meteorology, climatology, hydrology for inclusion in curriculum Involve religious organizations in information drive

29 Limitations/Shortcomings The Philippines has yet to establish efficient and faster communication links There is a need for high speed computing capacity. Data integration Manpower

30 Thank You! tracking the sky... helping the country