Commission of Climatology

Transcription

1 Seasonal Forecasting Review Report MALAWI Some DCCMS staff participating to the review discussion Content : Annex 1 : Response of DCCMS to the questionnaire p2 Diffusion list : F. Lucio (GFCS Office), C. Boyce (DCCMS), K. Kolli (CLW Department)), J. Patak (GFCS Office), JP Céron (CCl/ Opace 3 Co-Chair), Page 1/5

2 Annex 1 Response of DCCMS to the questionnaire Seasonal Forecasting System Review J.P. Céron - jpceron.wmo@gmail.com 1. SF system 1.1 Large Scale information (LSI) Are the impacts of LSI on your country well established (referenced papers, studies, )? SSTs have impact on our country as a driving force of ElNino and LaNina event. References have been made but on Grey literature Which LSI are you currently using? SSTs and some global dynamic models, such as MJO, ENSO and U850 and V850 though not to a large extent. Who is providing such information? NOAA and IRI websites Is it observed, predicted or both? Both Is some crucial LSI are missing or are not provided timely? Delayed as we rely on monthly data If Yes please details! SSTs, MJO and ENSO data are most of the time delayed. 1.2 Regional/Local information (RSI) Which RSI are you currently using? Local information we use is historical climatological data in liason with SADC Climate Services Centre (SADC CSC) for regional consensus forecasts. Who is providing such information? :We are the custodians of this local information for Malawi but at regional level the SADC CSC provides such information. Is it observed, predicted or both? Observed Is some crucial RSI are missing or are not provided timely? Yes some local data has not yet been degitised to complete the whole dataset If Yes please details!? It is always availabe on the 15th of the month can get update of SSTs for the previous month which is the same with local climate data which is also available at the end of the month as hard copies. 1.3 Products to prepare Which products are you issuing? seasonal forecasts which we issue as rainfall seasonal total forecasts for the entire country, in two homogeneous zones for three monthly time scale, ie OND, NDJ, DJF,JFM and FMA. We also issue 3 day forecasts, 5 day forecasts, 14 day forecasts and Dekadal (10 day) agrometeorological bulletins. The department also issue various warnings which are important as well, such as: MWERA WINDS WARNING: The Department issues warning for strong southeasterly winds during winter called Mwera Winds. They are hazardous to lake users as they cause high water waves. Forecasting magnitude and time of occurrence of such winds is at times a challenge. During the Season, we also need to forecast occurrence of dry spells that will have impact to crop productions, Onset and Cessations of the rains becomes also paramount to users such as farmers. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS During the season, occurrence of tropical cyclones have also different impacts to farming and other activities. Understanding the likelihood of their occurrence can also improve on the products already being produced by the Department. SEVERE STORM WARNINGS In Season storms particularly at the beginning of the season have become so disastrous such that users are frequently demanding such information. Their predictability becomes a Page 2/5

3 challenge particularly with limited availability of data yet if they are well forecasted could help users to mitigate the impacts of such storms. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. The ability to forecast rainfall amounts for a particular location means it would also be possible to issue likelihood of particular areas to be affected by flash floods. As such deterministic forecasting of rainfall amounts in both time and space can be very useful input to the forecasting office as well as the Department as a whole. Which are the space and time scales appropriate for your products? For Seasonal Forecasts, District by district on monthly time scale would be appropriate. Which is (are) the relevant Lead-Time(s)? Lead time of one month would be relevant for the seasonal forecasts; while could be shorter for the short-term to medium-term forecasts Are the products probabilistic, deterministic or both? Probabilistic at National Scale but deterministic on monthly basis at District scale. Do you need ; daily, monthly or seasonal quantities for your products? We may need both. Daily for our daily weather forecasts and Monthly (for the seasonal forecasts) Are the different products presented as maps, bulletins, digital data? In all the three formats Are some important and/or expected products missing? If Yes which and why. Yes, spatial and temporal rainfall distribution during the season. Are you checking the quality of the issued products (wrong information, inconsistency,...)? Yes we closely monitor throughout the season and issue updates whenever necessary. There is also 10 day bulletin which give details of perfomance and also issue forecast for the coming ten days. 2. Operations Is your SF operated routinely? Yes If Yes, to which frequency? Which is the date(s) of issuance? The SF is first issued at the End of the month of September and is updated mainly at the end of December. If No for which occasion(s)? N/A How long the preparation and issuance of your SF take? months Do you have any process to follow-up the operations (e.g. task monitoring, )? Yes Is your system operated manually, automatically or in between? Manually Are your operations described into a specific document? Yes, Manual for seasonal forecast production process is available (currently in draft format). How are you ensuring the sustainability of your operational system? Training new forecasters annually (during the production of the seasonal forecast) Is your SF operated jointly or separately with your Weather Forecasting System? Jointly 3. Methods 3.1 Generality Is your SF mostly based on Dynamical, Statistical or Hybrid methods? Statistical but reference is made to dynamical products from regional and world centres In addition are you using expert judgement? Yes particulary during downscalling as local knowledge becomes very critical. For dynamical/ hybrid methods which model(s) are you using? IRI, ECMWF, UKMet (we only use ready products in form of maps) For statistical/ hybrid methods which methods are you using? Using which software/tool? CPT, Systat and Fortran,GrADS, GeoCLIM and GeoCOF Are you facing difficulties to use these methods? (please details) More training is required as software are being updated from time to time. Do you have difficulties to get relevant and updated information on these topics. Yes as there is no direct link with the software developers except GeoCOF. 3.2 Downscaling Do you prepare downscaled forecasts and products? We started downscaling in the 2015/16 Page 3/5

4 season to district level but the performance of the forecast has not yet been validated. Is it for specific application(s)? If Yes please details. Mainly for Agricultural applications but other sectors such as water resources management, health and disaster risk reduction are also served. To which space and time scales are you downscaling your forecasts and products? District by district and on monthly time scale will be prefered. Is your downscaling dynamical, statistical or both? Statistical Same questions for upscaling (if any e.g. moving from stations to spatially integrated information) Not yet implemented but we need to know how we can grid our datasets so that we can be able to create spatial distributions. 3.3 Dataset Which reference period are you using for your SF? We were using 1971 to 2000 but we have migrated to 1981 to 2010 Are all the used data quality controlled? Yes Are the data homogeneous over the reference period? Yes Is there any missing data? Yes, but is filled when gaps are discovered. Is the access to some crucial data missing or difficult with respect of operations? No. However, our database management system is still not fully functional. As such at times data might not be readily available but eventually is sourced. Same question with respect of R&D? QUESTION NOT CLEAR!! 3.4 Verification Are you computing scores and skill-scores associated to your SF? Yes Are you using the SVS (or part of the SVS)? Yes Are you using additional verification? No Are you monitoring the quality of the current SF? If Yes with which scores? No Informal monitoring is done through our daily and dekadal weather updates. However, during development of the models, Contingecy Table,(HSS, FAR, POD and others) are used. 4. Resources How many staff involved into operations? All Meteorologists (about 14) Into the R&D of your SF? This is yet to be implemented Which connection between the R&D side and the operations? This is yet to be implemented Which computing resources involved into the operational process? Softwares and Computers/servers available. However, high speed internet is lacking. Human resource need further training which requires attachment to other regional or global centres Are you facing specific difficulties for the maintenance of computing resources (hardware and software)? No specific difficulties other than training of personnel. (We have an IT section) Same question for human resources (e.g. maintenance of competencies). Yes we face difficulties, Currently there is increasing demand for tailored information/ products. The current staffing and competency levels are not adequate to satisfy the demand especially due to fewer staff, inadequate competency, etc. There is also need for capacity to automate some of the processes so that information is timely available. 5. Application Are your products directly related to specific application domains (Water, Health, Agriculture, Energy, DRR, )? Yes all that have been mentioned here mainly for planning. Are the products probabilistic, deterministic or both? Probabilistic at national scale and deterministic at local scale. Which type of stakeholders is using your SF (institutional, private, ministery, )? Institutional, Private Ministries and individuals. Which decision(s) are taken using your products? With which Lead-Time? Type of seed Page 4/5

5 and crop to be planted, lead time close to onset of the season. For DRR, the SF is used to develop contingency plans at national, district and community levels. Energy sector also use the information for planning the time of the year when rationing will commence Do you have any regular feedback from the stakeholders using your SF? Yes, but it is not yet formalized How the liaison with your stakeholders is achieved? Stakehloders meetings/ conferences and communication 6. Communication How are you preparing the communication of your SF to your different users? We try to use the simplest language possible. Attempts have been made in the past to use local languages but this can be improved. Which media (technical viewpoint) are you using to convey your SF to your different users? We use both print and electronic media namely : newspapers, radio, television. But also in the past two years, comprehensive dissemination drives have been used through engaging Extension workers, district councils, community leaders, and lead farmers. In some cases, District Climate Information Centers are also used as conduits for dissemination of the seasonal forecasts. Currently under Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), social media such as WhatsApp and Facebook have also been used. Do you face any concern with the message to communicate? Yes sometimes it becomes difficult to explain to local people for them to understand since some terms are technical. Do you have any regular press release, interviews, regarding your SF? Yes we do. Press releases are done before the onset of the rainy season, interviews to explain the impact of SF and its implcations to various sectors and users is explained through television, national, private and community radios Do you have any user facilities to help them into the use of your information? Yes, we have partnered with several sectors and NGOs who are working with the district councils in the District Commisioner offices in all the 28 districts in Malawi. We have also futher partnered ourselves with civil society organizations and we are running participatory scenario planning sessions together with vulneable communities where they are oriented to the SF and are able to develop various scenarios using the probabilities and how they will impact on their livelihhood during the season. DCCMS has also established 7 district climate information centers as pilot centres at the district council offices where as Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services we send the SF via to the District Councils and communities through the DCIC. 7. General organisation What is the nature of your mandate for Climate Prediction? To monitor and predict weather and climate for Malawi. For Climate Projection? To develop future climate scenarios for Malawi and provide information to help in future development planning Do you have any mandate for providing Climate Services? Yes, We are the sole and authoritative providers of Climate Services in the country. If Yes please detail the nature of your mandate For the SF as a planning tool, we engage with various climate senstive sectors such as Agriculture to come with advisories on the expected impact of the season forecast to the sector. We also work with the the Department of Disaster Management Affairs to utilise the SF for drawing contigency plans and strategising relief items. In the Health sector, we develop together advisories for occurrences of diseases such as malaria and other water borne diseases during the season. We engage the Water sectors to come up with prospects of flooding and drought episodes in the season. If No please give details on which organisation have the mandate or why there is not yet any mandate in your country. N/A Page 5/5