Rainfall-Flood Hazard along the Cagayan River in Carmen
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1 -Flood Hazard along the Cagayan River in Carmen Things to watch out for when rain falls intensity 12 December 2013, Cagayan de Oro City Hall
2 3 +1 main questions I What do we need to understand about rainfall and flood in lower Cagayan River? I What can we do to prepare for flood? What information is useful? I How is Sendong s rainfall compared with other? Was it an extreme event? Can we attribute Sendong to climate change? I Can we know something about the future? What long-term effects can be expected? intensity
3 Volume: rainfall-flood reference Year (Date) Event (mm 10-day) Flood (community identified) 1916 Typhoon No info Mentioned 1952 Rains No info Mentioned 1984 (26 Aug) Nitang No info 100 m from river 2007 (06 Jan) Rains Heavy rains 2009 (03 Jan) Auring Rains 2-3 days before 2009 (09 Jan) Rains Flood 2009 (11 Jan) Rains Rains 3-4 days before 2011 (16 Dec) Sendong Moderate rains in the morning, heavy in the afternoon 2013 (03 Dec) Pablo Rains 2 days before intensity
4 Intensity: warn when rain rate >20 mm/hr Intensity [mm/hr] IDF curves for northern Mindanao from TRMM data ( ) 2007 rains 2009 rains Sendong 2011 Pablo intensity 0 3h 6h 9h 12h 18h 1d 36h 2d 60h Duration Combine intensity with 10-day totals. Information for landslide risk (Zone 9J and landfill).
5 Distribution: rain lower in the watershed intensity Flood during Sendong stronger impact than Pablo; larger surface area to slow runoff into river.
6 Accumulation: 10-day threshold 120 mm 10 day running rainfall total [mm] Largest 10 day rainfall during wettest years in Lumbia ( ) Jan May Dec Oct Dec Dec intensity Days to event Analysis by W. R. Clavano, 2013; data from PAGASA and NOAA. Lumbia station data corroborated by satellite (TRMM) data.
7 10-day running rainfall totals: calculation 06-Dec 07-Dec 08-Dec 09-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 14-Dec Sendong (2011) (mm) day running total Pablo (2012) (mm) day running total 24-Nov 25-Nov 26-Nov 27-Nov 28-Nov 29-Nov 30-Nov 01-Dec 02-Dec 15-Dec 03-Dec 16-Dec 04-Dec 17-Dec 05-Dec 18-Dec 06-Dec 19-Dec 07-Dec 20-Dec 08-Dec 21-Dec 09-Dec 22-Dec 10-Dec 23-Dec 11-Dec 24-Dec 12-Dec 25-Dec 13-Dec 26-Dec 14-Dec intensity
8 Sendong not an extreme rainfall event Maximum annual 24 hour rainfall [mm] frequency analysis of northern Mindanao from TRMM data, yr 1.05 yr 1.11 yr 1.25 yr 1.50 yr 1 chance in 100 = 555.5mm 1 chance in 50 = 506.4mm 1 chance in 25 = 457.9mm 1 chance in 10 = 393.7mm 2.00 yr 3.00 yr Sendong = 1.07 years 5 yr 10 yr 20 yr 50 yr 100 yr 200 yr 500 yr 1000 yr Observations Fitted distribution 95% confidence interval Highest recorded level (2003) Next highest recorded level (2011) intensity Analysis by W. R. Clavano, 2013; using TRMM data. Exceedance probability What are the chances Sendong will happen again?
9 Why return s? Total daily rainfall [mm] The largest daily rainfall amounts in northern Mindanao in Jan 2011 Sendong intensity Rank (24-hour) during Sendong was only the 9th largest in Other watershed effects to consider.
10 Was Sendong caused by climate change? I What causes heavy rainfall? I Individual, combined, can tell us if there is long-term change. However, it is difficult to attribute one event to the larger phenomenon. I The determination of rainfall return s is an example. Also useful to project rainfall characteristics in the near future. intensity
11 Tropical rain belt, typhoons and monsoons intensity I La Niña year I Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the Philppines
12 Tropical rain belt, typhoons and monsoons intensity I Easterly (north and south) trade winds I Monsoon circulation (outflow from mainland Asia)
13 data sources and analysis Method Source List major flood reference ESSC PDRA 2013 Historical information, other Selga 1935 typhoons Characterize different PAGASA through reference NOAA NCDC online Calculate rainfall return USGS Bulletin 17B s Analyze rainfall-intensityduration-frequency Chow et al and TRMM through at flood peak Giovanni online 10-day rainfall PAGASA and TRMM intensity
14 Thanks I Manila Observatory archives I NOAA Library archives I C. Aguinaldo I University of Arizona Libraries I P. L. Gadiaware and G. O. Brown intensity
15 Storm surge contributing factors intensity Philippine Daily Inquirer, 16 November 2013.
16 Causes of heavy rainfall in the Philippines I Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) I Monsoons I Tropical cyclones (typhoons) intensity
17 December 1998 total rainfall (ONI = -1.5*) intensity
18 December 1999 total rainfall (ONI = -1.7*) intensity
19 December 2000 total rainfall (ONI = -0.8*) intensity
20 December 2001 total rainfall (ONI = -0.3) intensity
21 December 2002 total rainfall (ONI = 1.3*) intensity
22 December 2003 total rainfall (ONI = 0.3) intensity
23 December 2004 total rainfall (ONI = 0.7*) intensity
24 December 2005 total rainfall (ONI = -0.8*) intensity
25 December 2006 total rainfall (ONI = 1.0*) intensity
26 December 2007 total rainfall (ONI = -1.4*) intensity
27 December 2008 total rainfall (ONI = -0.7*) intensity
28 December 2009 total rainfall (ONI = 1.6*) intensity
29 December 2010 total rainfall (ONI = -1.5*) intensity
30 December 2011 total rainfall (ONI = -1.0*) intensity
31 December 2012 total rainfall (ONI = -0.3) intensity
32 July 2002 total rainfall (ONI = 0.8) intensity
33 July 2010 total rainfall (ONI = -0.9) intensity
34 July 2012 total rainfall (ONI = 0.1) intensity
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