Modelling storm surges with HYCOM An improvement of the French warning system
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1 Modelling storm surges with HYCOM An improvement of the French warning system A. Pasquet (1) H. Michaud (1) R. Baraille (1) D. Jourdan (1) L. Biscara (1) S. Casitas (1) D. Paradis (2) P. Ohl (2) A. Dalphinet (2) 1. SHOM 2.Météo-France Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards 2017
2 OUTLINE I. HOMONIM PROJECT CONTEXT OBJECTIVES A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT II. STORM SURGE MODELLING WITH HYCOM MODEL DESCRIPTION PERFORMANCE OF OPERATIONAL CONFIGURATIONS III. ONGOING AND FUTURE WORK DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING TOWARDS HIGH RESOLUTION AND COUPLED LEVEL/WAVES MODELLING NUMERICAL SCHEME AND BOTTOM FRICTION OPTIMIZATION
3 1. HOMONIM PROJECT HISTORY, OBSERVATION AND MODELLING OF SEA LEVELS
4 OBJECTIVES IMPROVING THE FRENCH WAVES AND SURGE WARNING SYSTEM The HOMONIM project is part of the governmental action plan for flooding risks assessment and management. Objectives Expected benefits To better anticipate flooding from the sea To improve warning systems on French metropolitan and overseas coasts A reference database To extend tide gauges network To produce fit-for-purpose digital elevation models Enhanced operational forecasting abilities To develop surges and waves forecasting models Warning system alert Published by Météo France, Densification of SHOM tide gauges network Available and up-to-date Information To supply Météo France surges and waves warning system To give open access to forecasts for general public Hs (WW3, top) and sea level (HYCOM, bottom) from data.shom.fr 4
5 A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT EXPERTISE AND MISSIONS OF SHOM AND METEO FRANCE SHOM Marine and coastal geographic reference data Hydrography and safety navigation (DTM, Tide predictions, ) Sea level and currents monitoring (REFMAR, RONIM) Operational Ocean modelling Defense and Civil operational support Beautemps-Beaupré METEO FRANCE Meteorology and climate Atmosphere and sea state observation Meteorological and air-sea interface modelling Weather, waves and storm surge Warning system operation Data diffusion Regional DEM of Mayotte Island
6 STORM SURGE AND SEA STATE FORECASTING ON FRENCH COASTS METROPOLITAN AND OVERSEAS CONFIGURATIONS OF HOMONIM I & II PHASES 6 vvv
7 2. STORM SURGE MODELLING WITH HYCOM MODEL AND PERFORMANCE ON METROPOLITAN COASTS
8 DESCRIPTION AND PERFORMANCE OF HYCOM METROPOLITAN CONFIGURATIONS ATLantic Ocean and MEDiterraneen Sea facades Operated since January 2014, yearly updates Barotropic version of HYCOM Curvilinear bipolar grids DTM specifically updated, 500m to 100m resolution Evaluation of tides and surge level modelling on 1 year long simulation and storm events, using reanalyzed atmospheric forcing Indicateur statistique ATL MED RMSE high tides (cm) 15 N/A Phase shift on high tides (min) 16 N/A RMSE on storm surge (cm) 8 8 Mean Error on storm event extrema (cm) Performance of HYCOM -9-9 Specifications of ATL configuration 0,4 to 1 km resolution Active Wetting & Drying Tidal forcing NEA 2011 (17 components, LEGOS) Force WW3 with sea levels and currents Geographically variable bottom friction
9 HOW TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE MODELLING? LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL External / induced by the formalism Barotropic formalism Limited number of spectral components (17 from NEA 2011) Atmospheric forcing quality (model, real time) Bathymetry Oscillation of observed storm surge Dynamics of the semi-diurnal and quarter-diurnal internal tides in the Bay ofbiscay. Part 1: Barotropic tides. I.L. Pairaud,, F. Lyard, F. Auclair, T. Letellier, P. Marsaleix. Continental Shelf Research 28 (2008) Inherent to configuration and physical parameterization On tides Bottom friction Boundary tidal forcing quality Resolution and domain extension On storm surge Wind stress parameterization Resolution Wave set-up
10 3. ONGOING AND FUTURE WORK DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING 1. TOWARDS HIGH RESOLUTION AND COUPLED CURRENTS/LEVEL/WAVES MODELING
11 TOWARDS HIGH RESOLUTION AND COUPLED LEVEL/WAVES MODELLING THE PERTUIS-CHARENTE CASE - EMBEDDED CONFIGURATIONS IN HYCOM Resolution up to 30m on the Pertuis Charente area Intertidal areas Molluscs growing and tourism Coupler OASIS MCT 3.0 * Source: Light on the foreshore and the lighthouse of Chassiron, Oléron Island 11 * Craig A., Valcke S., Coquart L., 2017, Development and performance of a new version of the OASIS coupler, OASIS3-MCT_3.0, Geosci. Model Dev.,
12 TOWARDS HIGH RESOLUTION AND COUPLED LEVEL/WAVES MODELLING THE PERTUIS-CHARENTE CASE - COUPLING METHOD WW3/HYCOM 12
13 TOWARDS HIGH RESOLUTION AND COUPLED LEVEL/WAVES MODELLING THE PERTUIS-CHARENTE CASE - COUPLING METHOD WW3/HYCOM Storm surge during Xynthia, coupled simulation Offset of SSH due to coupling +6 cm La Rochelle
14 3. ONGOING AND FUTURE WORK DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING 2. NUMERICAL SCHEME AND BOTTOM FRICTION OPTIMIZATION
15 DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING STOCHASTIC APPROACH FOR BOTTOM FRICTION OPTIMIZATION Methodology to improve tidal model performance for each new configuration/model update Key criteria of the method? Physical parameter to optimize Bottom roughness Choice and availability of observation data Tide gauges obs or prediction, HF radars Cost function choice (error to minimize) Physical error: X Phase error X Amplitude error X Bias error Example of cost function : statistical indicator X RMSE on low and high tides extrema Minimization method Stochastic methods*, iterative process * Spall J.C. (2000), Adaptive Stochastic Approximation by the Simultaneous Perturbation Method, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, vol.45, pp Boutet M., Lathuilière C., Hoang H.S., Baraille R. (2014), Estimation of friction parameters in a barotropic tide model using stochastic methods, Tellus A 15
16 DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING ONGOING EXPERIMENTS : BOTTOM STRESS OPTIMIZATION AND NEW NUMERICAL SCHEME Improvement of tides modelling using : Stochastic approach for bottom friction optimization New numerical scheme ( hu~ ) h + = 0 t x ( hu) ( uhu~ ) h + u + g = 0 t x x ~ h u = u γ x E t T + x ( E + 2 E ) u ~ ) = 0 c p Experiment on : LT : Low tides HT: High tides One month simulation Cost function to optimize : RMSE LT + RMSE HT Collocation points : from 2x2 to 20x20
17 DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING ONGOING EXPERIMENTS : BOTTOM STRESS OPTIMIZATION AND NEW NUMERICAL SCHEME Improvement of tides modelling using : Stochastic approach for bottom friction optimization New numerical scheme ( hu~ ) h + = 0 t x ( hu) ( uhu~ ) h + u + g = 0 t x x ~ h u = u γ x E t T + x ( E + 2 E ) u ~ ) = 0 c p Experiment on : LT : Low tides HT: High tides One month simulation Cost function to optimize : RMSE LT + RMSE HT Collocation points : from 2x2 to 20x20
18 DEVELOPMENTS TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE FORECASTING ONGOING EXPERIMENTS : BOTTOM STRESS OPTIMIZATION AND NEW NUMERICAL SCHEME Point involved in the bottom roughness optimization process Constant value of the bottom roughness
19 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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21 NEW BAROTROPIC SOLVER OF HYCOM Hycom grid Arakawa C, pressure and velocity shifted Numerical scheme: semi-implicit on time, implicit on pressure Decreasing of total energy for the numerical scheme demonstrated Linear stability 1D linearised around a zero velocity field Linearisation around a constant velocity field Coriolis For Euler scheme, gmin = 0.5 Dt Higher orders to test (MUSCL, IMEX)
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23 CONTEXT CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EVENTS La Faute-sur-Mer after Xynthia storm, February 2010 (website actu.fr)
24 NOUVEAU SOLVEUR BAROTROPE DE HYCOM Maillage hérité de Hycom grid, décalé vitesse-pression Schéma semi-implicite en temps, implicite sur la pression Démonstration de la décroissance de l énergie totale pour le schéma numérique Etude de stabilité linéaire 1D linéarisé autour d un champ de vitesse nul Linéarisation autour d une vitesse constante quelconque Coriolis Pour un schéma d Euler, γmin = 0.5 t Montée en ordre (MUSCL, IMEX)
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26 MODÉLISATION DE LA SURCOTE - FAÇADE ATLANTIQUE EX D OSCILLATIONS DE LA SURCOTE OBASERVÉE
27 MODÉLISATION DE LA SURCOTE - FAÇADE ATLANTIQUE EX D ERREUR DÛE AU RÉSEAU UTILISÉ
28 Modelling storm surges with HYCOM An improvement of the french warning system SHOM A. Pasquet Storm surge modelling S. Casitas Storm surge modelling H. Michaud Sea state modelling R. Baraille Modelling expert L. Biscara DTM production A. Fauvaud Data diffusion D. Jourdan HOMONIM Project leader Collaborators : Météo France, PreviMar A. Dalphinet P. Ohl D. Paradis Workshop on Waves, Storm Surges and Coastal Hazards 2017
29 COMMENT FAIRE Les présentations powerpoint Vous avez la possibilité d écrire sur 7 niveaux. Pour augmenter ou diminuer le niveau de l ensemble du paragraphe, sous l onglet Accueil, dans le groupe Paragraphe, cliquez sur Augmenter le niveau de liste ou Réduire le niveau de liste. NIVEAU 1 Niveau 2 Niveau 3 X Niveau 4 Niveau 5 _ Niveau 6 Niveau 7 29 vvv
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