History and perspectives of storm surge management in Hamburg
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1 History and perspectives of storm surge management in Hamburg Hans von Storch; Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum, Geesthacht; undclisap KlimaCampus, Hamburg University, Hamburg Manfred Meine, Hamburg Port Authority, Hamburg Gabriele Gönnert, Agency of Roads, Rivers and Waters, Hamburg, Germany Graphics: Michael Schrenk 1
2 Graphics: Michael Schrenk Graphics: Michael Schrenk 2
3 Temporal development of intra-seasonal 99%ile of high tide levels AFTER subtraction of annual mean high tide and mean annual high tide in Esbjerg (Denmark) and Den Helder (The Netherlands) until Case of German Bight [m] Increase of sea level in the German Bight Albrecht et al.,
4 IPCC TAR scenarios of mean sea level rise [m] 27 Juni 2007 Folie 7 Vorlesung 1. Juli 2008 A2 - CTL: changes in 99 % - iles of wind speed (6 hourly, DJF): west wind sector selected (247.5 to deg) RCAO Scenarios for 2085 HIRHAM 4
5 Summary of knowlede about change of storm surge heights Significant drivers of changing storm surge heights Recent changes Possible changes until 2030 Possible changes until 2100 Global mean sea level rise ca. 2 dm ca. 1 2 dm ca. 2 8 dm Meteororological short term effects (storms) none ca. 0 1 dm ca. 1 3 dm Regional and local sea level change ca. 2 dm So far unknown So far unknown waves none So far unknown So far unknown tides Regionally very different So far unknown So far unknown bathymetry Regionally very different So far unknown So far unknown See: GKSS, 2009 : Nordseesturmfluten im Klimawandel.GKSS Wissenschaftler fassen aktuellen Forschungsstand zusammen. Case of German Bight Recent, ongoing: Natural climate variability in storminess. Effect of water water works. Mean sea level rise possibly about 2 mm/yr. Scenarios of possible future conditions: To the end of 21 st century strongest westerly winds enhanced by about 10%. Wind/Air pressure induced increase of storm surges: cm. Mean sea level rise unclear, likely larger than global mean sea level. Increase in coastal storm surge heights in 2030 about 20 cm, in 2085 about 70 cm. Uncertain numbers! 5
6 Hamburg storm surges Differenz Scheitelhöhen Hamburg - Cuxhaven Sturmfluten in der Elbe Vergangenheit Sturmfluten in der Elbe deutlich erhöht seit 1962 aufgrund wasserbaulicher Maßnahmen, vor allem wegen der Verkürzung der Deichlinie 6
7 Only the effect of anthropogenic climate change (A2, B2) - No effect of water works. Scenarios 2030, 2085 Options for dealing with future elevated storm surge levels -at the coast: + fortifying, extending presently installed coastal defence + flexible response strategies; + design dykes such that the amount of water which may safely spill over for a few hours is considerably larger than allowed today. - additionally in the estuary: partial undoing of previous man-made increases Graphics: Michael Schrenk 7
8 Dealing with rising sea level and elevated storm surge heights in Hamburg 1. Additional flooding areas The Tidal Elbe concept of Hamburg Port Authority 2. Availability of additional polders to be flooded during severe storm surges to cap the peaks of such surges. 3. Additional dissipation of tidal (and surge) energy by narrowing the mouth segment of the estuary Heinz Glindemann, HPA, pers. comm. Storm surges are a serious issue Conclusions Climate change and coastal development are drivers in changing storm surge risk. The North Sea is the best studied area, with no indications for present manmade change but perspectives for increases of 20 cm and 70 cm in 2030 and 2085 in its SE storm surges. These numbers are uncertain and represent scenarios. Most of the increase will take place even if the ambitious climate control measures will be successful. Thus the preparation of adaptive measures is needed. Novel adaptive measures need to be developed and examined, e.g., - damping of incoming tidal energy in estuaries - improving dyke design to allow for stronger overtopping. - strengthening the coastal protection facilities. 8
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